Live data from Hacker News

SpaceX launches another 60 Starlink satellites while setting two reuse records

cnbc.com

101–110 of 162 posts

Re: SpaceX launches another 60 Starlink satellites while setting two reuse records

#101
The money quote imo, I haven't read this explicitly stated before:

Shotwell said the company’s board of directors in 2012 realized the profit margins from the commercial satellites it was launching for customers were “much higher” than SpaceX’s launch business. Musk estimates Starlink could generate more than $30 billion per year – at least 10 times what SpaceX could bring in at best from its launch business.

What other customers businesses will they seek to cannibalize next?

Re: SpaceX launches another 60 Starlink satellites while setting two reuse records

#102

The money quote imo, I haven't read this explicitly stated before: Shotwell said the company’s board of directors in 2012 realized the profit margins from the commercial satellites it was launching for customers were “much higher” than SpaceX’s launch business. Musk estimates Starlink could generate more than $30 billion per year – at least 10 times what SpaceX could bring in at best from its launch business. What ot…

Iridium isn't really a direct competitor to Starlink. The Iridium ground station can be much smaller (like a cell phone) and it's intended for a different set of customers with much lower data bandwidth requirements.

Re: SpaceX launches another 60 Starlink satellites while setting two reuse records

#103
post #54

Goodbye amateur astronomy https://spaceweathergallery.com/indiv_upload.php?upload_id=1...

If you don't mind me asking, What time of night was that image taken? That looks like sunlight reflected off the satellites, so it must have been just after sunset or just prior to dawn (where the satellites are illuminated but it is dark on the ground) -- or am I mistaken? And is that still an issue after the satellites were raised to their target orbit?

Also, this being a composite image, I'm assuming it is from multiple exposures. Can the software that merges the images together also filter out the satellites? And how is it that just 60 satellites do this, but the 2000 or so currently in orbit don't exhibit this behavior?

Re: SpaceX launches another 60 Starlink satellites while setting two reuse records

#104
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But if you remove all streaming/porn/torrent traffic it would be able to handle a lot more of the global traffic.

What's the point of such internet? I can already buy low-cap 4G cheaply.

Except where you can't. Lots places have no coverage.

Re: SpaceX launches another 60 Starlink satellites while setting two reuse records

#105
post #80
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I wonder if that's why google dipped out on rolling out fiber infrastructure. Google stopped deploying fiber for several reasons: a) they weren't able to get reasonable access to poles for deployment. b) incumbents started large rollouts of gigabit capable services (FTTH from telcos and DOCSIS 3.1 from cablecos) in markets Google had announced, but hadn't built out c) maybe? lots more LTE deployment

Also, they weren't very good at it. https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2019/02/googl... "When you're walking around the neighborhood, [the lines are] popping up out of the road all over the place," resident Larry Coomes said at the time. "People are tripping over it." ... "AT&T has been using various forms of shallow trenching since 2009 and hasn't seen similar issues."

Like so many other examples, a new entrant realized that the industry wasn't as simple as they thought it was.

Re: SpaceX launches another 60 Starlink satellites while setting two reuse records

#106
post #22

Can't wait to see every Tesla become a wifi hotspot hooked up to Starlink. Traditional ISPs are in trouble if the Starlink latency is really in the sub 100ms due to the LEO distance advantage. Global coverage with decent latency! I wonder if that's why google dipped out on rolling out fiber infrastructure. Physical infrastructure is about to become obsolete as more advancements in wireless tech and satellite internet…

> 100ms

> decent latency

pick one

Re: SpaceX launches another 60 Starlink satellites while setting two reuse records

#107
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been having this hard to articulate notion that humanity hasn't really begun to fathom the changes that will come with "cheap" launch vehicles. We have better than half a century where space launch was so expensive, and so rare, that this had an impact on the payloads themselves. Perversely it caused the payloads to become so highly engineered (for a variety of reasons) that they also became ultra-expensive in-l…

Soon (a decade or two) every major corporation and organization will have a manned station of their own.

To do what?

Re: SpaceX launches another 60 Starlink satellites while setting two reuse records

#108
post #22

Can't wait to see every Tesla become a wifi hotspot hooked up to Starlink. Traditional ISPs are in trouble if the Starlink latency is really in the sub 100ms due to the LEO distance advantage. Global coverage with decent latency! I wonder if that's why google dipped out on rolling out fiber infrastructure. Physical infrastructure is about to become obsolete as more advancements in wireless tech and satellite internet…

Google put $1bn in to the early stage of Musk's satellite ISP plan as I recall. Did they get 50% for that investment? I'm not sure.

Re: SpaceX launches another 60 Starlink satellites while setting two reuse records

#109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

20 Gbps per satellite, according to the FCC filings. Which isn't that great.

Netflix claims an UHD stream is 25 Mbps. This is probably the most demanding use case for your average consumer, but it may not be a rare use case in the near future. Each satellite can support 800 UHD streams. That doesn't seem sufficient if each satellite covers a large geographic area. This suggests to me a low data cap and/or rate, perhaps comparable to DSL.

12,000 satellites is the current FCC approved launch figures, I believe. 20Gbps per satellite but I don't know if that's full duplex or how much is divided between terminal/gateway, so lets divide that in half. For simplicity let's say they only sell consumer-grade 100Mbps connections, which are oversubscribed 100x as is typical. Divide the possible number of customers by 3 to account for uneven geographic distribution and other factors.

12000 * 20Gbps / 2 * 100 / 100Mbps / 3 = 40,000,000 customers

A service like that could sell for a lot in rural North America, but maybe not to 40m customers. Let's assume most of those customers are from lower income countries or from places with more competitive ISP environments. Maybe $20/mo average revenue per customer. That's $800m a month. That already sounds compelling to me, before considering the potential for more or higher bandwidth satellites, or for higher margin commercial or government contracts.

Re: SpaceX launches another 60 Starlink satellites while setting two reuse records

#110
post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry to rain on your parade. But Starlink will never be competing with internet in urban areas. The economics for simply laying a few miles of fiber are too good (if the fiber isn't even already there). More so the satellite density needed to serve an entire city is many more than even SpaceX is proposing. Starlink is for long distance backhaul and for rural/underserved areas.

If starlink allows roaming high speed internet, then I would be willing to pay for that instead of a fiber line.

I think the speed is going to have a tight inverse correlation with the population density of your location.
Post reply on HN