I think part of the issue is market timing. If we went back to June, Tesla is sitting at a $33B market cap after a huge slide. Uber started sliding in August. If we were just looking at market cap, Uber's had been decently stable for 3 months post-IPO and is now sliding. Tesla's would have been at its low point in June. You could have said then, "same could be said... but Uber is sitting at a $71B market cap while Tesla has slid down to $33B".
I do think Tesla is overvalued, but presents less risk than Uber. Ultimately, Tesla is looking to be a car company. $56B is a bit expensive for a car company, but there are examples. GM is $54B, Ford is $35B, Fiat Chrysler is $25B, Volkswagen is $100B, Toyota is $230B, Honda is $50B, Nissan is $27B, and Mazda is $6B. I think Tesla is overpriced because I think it's highly unlikely that they're the next Toyota. In 10 years, I think they might be the next Mazda or GM or Nissan or Honda - representing no gain to a significant loss over the next decade. Even if they become the next Volkswagen in 10 years, that would represent a less than 10% annualized return for something that's unlikely to happen. Even if one thinks Tesla is making a great product, the likelihood of becoming the next VW is very slim. Heck, Mazda makes some great cars and sells nearly 2 million, but they're only a $6B company.
But fundamentally, building cars and selling them for the amount of money people buy cars at is a reasonable proposition. Tesla's quarterly reports show that they can make them profitably and that the solar business is weighing on their financials. I can see Tesla being a profitable, sustainable company. They've proven out the economics of their batteries, drive-trains, manufacturing, etc. enough for me to believe there isn't an impediment to them continuing to exist indefinitely. I don't think they're going to justify their high valuation, but I can certainly see them becoming a Mazda, Nissan, or Honda - well respected, profitable, etc.
I mean, Tesla had $143M in GAAP net income in Q3.
However, I think there are big questions on whether Uber can stick around indefinitely. As states turn against the gig economy, does that wreck their business model? As self-driving seems many more years away, do they have the runway to keep going? Even with self-driving, are they the ones that will capture that market or will a company without the losses from a driver-oriented business take over that space? Will customers give a company like Uber margin or will they constantly be searching for the cheapest option?
I think the auto industry in general will face challenges over the next couple decades (another reason I'm less bullish on Tesla), but Tesla (at least its auto business) is fundamentally traditional. You give them tens of thousands of dollars, they give you a car. It might be an electric one with interesting new toys, but it's a traditional transaction and one that seems to provide good margin as the ramp-up costs start to wind down (launching an auto company takes a lot of time and money). Tesla is trying to convince people that they want to buy a Tesla rather than a Nissan. Uber is trying to convince people that they want to buy a lot more taxi rides and the only way to do that is by making them cheaper. Can they make that happen? Even if they make that happen, is there a barrier to someone else coming in and competing?