101–110 of 134 posts
So should I pull out on all my stocks and stuff everything into bonds then?
since jan 2 2019 S&P 500 is up from 2510 => 3074 so if you read a doom porn article and liquidated on 12/30 you missed out on insane growth spurt this is no different. you have to factor in potential lost growth when you go risk averse mode; it's against our loss aversion bias but has to be done when thinking long term.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
If China has enough real money to bend the NBA and Activision doesn’t that imply that the bookkeeping isn’t fake - CN’s success is real, not imagined?
No, it’s like a car dealership not extending credit to someone with bad credit but who will gladly take a bank check.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
1. Yeah plenty of non-Americans think this too, _maybe_ if you said “westerners” it’d be defensible, but it’d still be wrong. 2. The nba & activision are selling goods to China, or maybe they put a little money into real assets to reach that audience. They’re not investing in Chinese financial instruments which is what the entire thread is about
Exactly, now if they were paying the nba etc with 30 year Chinese non transferable bonds the parent would have a case.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Personally, I'd take central banks heading back to the gold standard as a massive signal that things were about to get worse, not better. It'd be like having your oncologist suggest enrollment in a phase-one study - they aren't doing that because the outlook of a patient in a phase-one study is good , but because the alternative is worse , and now they're reduced to trying for a hail mary.
Gold is able to support entire global GDP and also growth. It all depends on the price. With current gold price a return to gold standard would be a disaster and would bring on the greatest recession of our lifetimes. But at about 10k price gold standard starts to make sense. The idea is that during the next big crises central banks will have no tools to use (we are close to 0 in the US and in negative rates across t…
Mortgage debt will probably not be a problem in this cycle. People have this bias to remember most recent event, but it's rarely the same thing twice in a row: https://imgur.com/a/0dT7iHK Corporate debt may be: https://imgur.com/a/b54hMSg And frankly with the amount of outstanding US govt debt and underfunded pension & healthcare liabilities the USD may either get dethroned and devalued or sent into the negative inte…
I'm not sure I agree with your math. Care to elaborate a bit further?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Since around 1970 (US leaves the gold standard) gold has slightly outpaced inflation according to the US BLS inflation calculator [0]. Calculator thinks $6,000/kg => $41,000/kg, actual price $6,000/kg to $48,000/kg. That makes sense because 'true' inflation (consumer goods + assets) probably outpaces official inflation (consumer goods only). Gold can't exactly get more or less valuable over time. It is a rock. We hav…
Gold can't exactly get more or less valuable over time. It is a rock. We have no practical uses for it. My impulse to point out that it's a very useful metal is tempered by my surprise that only 10% of gold production goes to applications where gold does something other than look golden or just exist as a physical store of value. It seems a little silly. Gold mining is quite destructive; environmentalists should fly…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Going through mortgage application now, they grill the shit out of you on every little detail of your life now. They're aware of the last crash, and have done a lot to compensate.
On the other hand, I recently sold a house that received a lot of offers. Only one person actually had the down payment money. Everyone else's loans were approved, but most were people were coming with low cash and lower income than I would have expected. Some looked like irresponsible loans to me.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Is there a reason why Japan shouldn't monetize the debt? The usual explanation is that it would cause inflation, but I'm not sure how that works for government debt that trades near 0% anyway. It's a tradeable store of value that you can trade 1:1 for money, so might as well be money?
Monetizing debt makes both your currency and your government untrusted.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's more than just pandering to millenials. This is also about pandering to Academia. Depending on how the student loan bubble bursts, it could wind up with a number of institutions being forced to shut their doors, or make large cuts to staff/programs/etc.
Definitely a factor. Not just a coincidence that Warren was a professor, Sanders' wife was a college administrator, Buttigieg's dad is a professor...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Definitely a factor. Not just a coincidence that Warren was a professor, Sanders' wife was a college administrator, Buttigieg's dad is a professor...
Student loans are basically a variable tax to attend college. There should be a relief valve of pay like 10% extra in taxes until the principal is paid off. People paying interest on the loans can get a tax deduction for the interest as well (it actually makes no sense to have interest on the loans because that interest is going back to the Feds in 90% of cases).
in the old days, people could pay tuition with a part-time job.