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U.S. has its wettest 12 months on record again

noaa.gov

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Re: U.S. has its wettest 12 months on record again

#101

Post by jupiter90000 »

undersuit wrote: post #77
jupiter90000 wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So US-only warming instead of global? Confused. Admittedly I may not understand, is US is expected to be impacted differently by global warming than other countries?

The landmass of North America will experience different effects of climate change than other landmasses. There might be similarities between it and other areas, like South America, but South America has a large cold continent to it's south while North America has a small cold ocean to it's north.

Have any good resources to learn more on this? Thanks if so

Re: U.S. has its wettest 12 months on record again

#102

Post by mirimir »

lovich wrote: post #48
umvi wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are there any record-setting weather patterns that global climate change can't account for?

Its changing the climate so no, there is probably no record setting weather it cant account for. Even if this was less water it would be listed as the driest 12 months on record.

In the weather/climate realm, effects of increasing CO2, CH4, etc arguably dominate. Next important, I think, are changes in land use. Such as heat island effects of cities. Or deforestation reducing local to regional rainfall.

So yeah. In areas that are getting warmer, such as the Arctic, new records will be about high temperatures and less sea ice cover. In areas that are getting drier, it'll be about drought. And in areas that are getting wetter, it'll be about flooding.

Re: U.S. has its wettest 12 months on record again

#103

Post by newvoiceoldphne »

mirimir wrote: post #2

Global climate change => higher air temperatures => more water in the air => more water available to fall out of the air.

Cloud formation is also thought to inversely correlate to sunspot activity. With the lull in solar activity, that very well could be the cause.

Re: U.S. has its wettest 12 months on record again

#104

Post by Skunkleton »

floatrock wrote: post #47
kingkawn wrote: post #35

What if rather than doom we get global tropical paradise

What if new tropical paradises means the current tropical paradises become uninhabitable, creating more forced migrations that make the syrian refugee crisis look like a quiet day on the canadian border, and the lands that become your "tropical paradise" actually are the grain belts of the world, which can no longer grow all the food a continuously expanding global population demands? Look at all the flooding in the…

> What if new tropical paradises means the current tropical paradises become uninhabitable.

And what if the shift happens so fast there isnt enough time for all of the tropical plant life to migrate with the temperature changes?

Re: U.S. has its wettest 12 months on record again

#105

Post by newvoiceoldphne »

godshatter wrote: post #90
noonespecial wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't predict the cards in my next hand of blackjack, but I'm sure if I play all night the house will win in the end.

That's a pretty good analogy, but the question is: will you lose your bankroll in 20 minutes, or an hour, or 12 hours, or a week? Climate models are doing the equivalent of trying to figure out when you're going to broke, which (although much easier than figuring what cards you will get) is still a tough question to answer.

Card decks are a much smaller problem space than the entirety of the Earth and factors affecting it's climate.

Re: U.S. has its wettest 12 months on record again

#107

Post by viraptor »

chrisco255 wrote: post #72
viraptor wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which predicted catastrophes? The only one I remember is the ozone layer issue which we stopped with regulation and still pay the price (although it's getting better)

You ever see the movie Waterworld? Some people actually believe that to be a possibility.

Yeah, but we ignore those people when taking about real world. There's a difference between "believed in a catastrophic movie" and predictions based on real information.

Re: U.S. has its wettest 12 months on record again

#108

Post by tasty_freeze »

umvi wrote: post #43
mirimir wrote: post #2

Global climate change => higher air temperatures => more water in the air => more water available to fall out of the air.

Are there any record-setting weather patterns that global climate change can't account for?

Yes. Weather variance is higher, but the fact is that record highs far outnumber record lows. If record lows were in greater supply it would help falsify the theory that the global average temperature is going up.

Re: U.S. has its wettest 12 months on record again

#109

Post by lutorm »

dlivingston wrote: post #56
pazimzadeh wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure what the use is of comparing human processing to "the type of operations required to simulate something like climate" since predicting the weather is not something our computers are particularly good at. Why is a 3D model even necessary? Personal anecdote: my grandmother is capable of predicting rain 1-2 days ahead of time based on smell and just "a feeling." Granted, we probably don't remember all of th…

> Why is a 3D model even necessary? See [0]. PDEs can be solved discreetly in three dimensions on a three-dimensional grid (3D model, sort of). [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finite_volume_method

That doesn't really explain why you need a 3d model, though. If there was no important vertical process, you could get away with not resolving it. However, vertical heat transport is the entire game since the lower atmosphere is opaque to heat.

Re: U.S. has its wettest 12 months on record again

#110

Post by ori_b »

chrisco255 wrote: post #72
viraptor wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which predicted catastrophes? The only one I remember is the ozone layer issue which we stopped with regulation and still pay the price (although it's getting better)

You ever see the movie Waterworld? Some people actually believe that to be a possibility.

You ever see the Reptilian conspiracy theories? Some people actually believe that to be a possibility.

Do you have any evidence that a significant portion of people working in the field in the 1980s thought that Waterworld was realistic, or are you just pointing at some cranks that existed, and treating it as evidence of anything other than the existence of cranks?

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