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Tesla Shakes Up Model 3 Lineup

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Re: Tesla Shakes Up Model 3 Lineup

#102

I get the strong impression that even as a loss leader, the $35,000 figure was based on some back of envelope calculations. We know that they have had to expand or increase the cost in several ways since they started production. I know they really want to make the Model T of electric cars, but it took about a decade of development for Ford to deliver one under $500. And I don't think Tesla has quite mastered the scie…

I believe it was an outright lie, an effort to solicit deposits and lure people into a bait-and-switch of higher priced models. All evidence to date suggests I'm right. Of course, they're never going to come out and say 'we fooled you' but I don't know what level of evidence people need before they reach the conclusion for themselves.

And what evidence would that be

Re: Tesla Shakes Up Model 3 Lineup

#103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not unreasonable to heavily critique the fact that Tesla deadlines are blown repeatedly, and yet who among us has gone from 0 to 300k+ vehicles manufacturer and sold per year in 12 years and delivered an EV into an elliptical orbit with a privately developed heavy lift vehicle? Don’t say something is impossible while someone else is delivering, slowly and missed deadlines or not. @sbov (deleted reply while I was…

Musk doesn’t run SpaceX. Gwynne Shotwell does.

Musk funded its startup, and was the driving force in building their own engines after getting laughed out of Russia [1]. Shotwell does great managing the day to day, and deserves credit for Falcon Heavy, as she was the one who told Musk they should still test fly the first one and offer it as a service (instead of going straight to BFR).

[1] https://www.inverse.com/article/34976-spacex-ceo-elon-musk-t... (When SpaceX Tried to Buy Missiles From Russia: Vodka and a Run-Around)

> The third and final meeting happened back in Russia. Musk flew there with Cantrell, prepared to purchase three ICBMs for $21 million. But to Musk’s disappointment, the Russians now claimed that they wanted $21 million for each rocket, and then taunted the future SpaceX founder. As Cantrell recounted to Esquire:

> “They said, ‘Oh, little boy, you don’t have the money?”

> This insulting event, however, played a part in inspiring Musk to found SpaceX, which in 2017 alone has successfully launched nine rockets into space and has twelve more launches on the docket this year. On the flight back, Musk turned to Cantrell and said:

> “I think we can build a rocket ourselves.”

Re: Tesla Shakes Up Model 3 Lineup

#104
post #51
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have yet speak to any experienced embedded developer who actually thinks "full autonomy" is remotely possible in the near/mid term. The suggestions that it is possible, seems to come mainly from junior developers and snake-oil salesman. We don't even have "full autonomous" trains, planes, or trucks yet.

"full autonomy" means lots of different things to different people. Some people think of it as being able to drive anywhere at any time in any condition. This is unlikely to ever happen before AGI. What matters in Tesla's case is more likely being able to drive in some small number of places in specific circumstances without a physical driver in the vehicle (but possibly a remote one to handle unusual circumstances).…

> a remote one to handle unusual circumstances

How could that ever work? The "unusual circumstances" that matter will usually require either action in less than a second, like an improvised detour sign, or situational awareness, like a human directing traffic around some random obstacle. At best, Google will be making cars that pull over to the shoulder and call for help in a few years.

Re: Tesla Shakes Up Model 3 Lineup

#105
post #12

Per the new lease: "Please note, customers who choose leasing over owning will not have the option to purchase their car at the end of the lease, because with full autonomy coming in the future via an over-the-air software update, we plan to use those vehicles in the Tesla ride-hailing network." Elon once again promising fully autonomous vehicles in 3 years. Also, isn't this a rental? A lease normally has a residual,…

This quote serves three purposes: (1) It emphasizes the value in software, not the car's 'carcass'; (2) It hypes a future marketplace and business model for Tesla's stock purchasers; (3) It tells the customer that they are better off buying the good instead of renting. I agree that it seems to be a rental. If the business expects to continue to make updates to the car's software assuming that it will be determining f…

> This quote serves three purposes: (1) It emphasizes the value in software, not the car's 'carcass';

If only it were like software. Producing another marginal unit of software is trivial.

Re: Tesla Shakes Up Model 3 Lineup

#106

I get the strong impression that even as a loss leader, the $35,000 figure was based on some back of envelope calculations. We know that they have had to expand or increase the cost in several ways since they started production. I know they really want to make the Model T of electric cars, but it took about a decade of development for Ford to deliver one under $500. And I don't think Tesla has quite mastered the scie…

Maybe unrealistic in the end but I think they realized it was cheaper to not change up the assembly line too much and instead just build them all with the same interior options. Removing extra speakers is easy, not installing all the ambient lighting is simple, swapping out a leather interior with cloth isn't as that not only is a large item it means you need to secure supplies for an option that may not have suffici…

Getting to 37k isn't a bad accomplishment. It may not be the big number, but its still a pretty good price point. Hopefully this is the end of the chaos pricing has been the past few weeks.

I wonder if there will ever be a sub 30k car by Tesla someday. The average new car is around 37k now, so about half the market is under that.

Re: Tesla Shakes Up Model 3 Lineup

#107
post #51
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have yet speak to any experienced embedded developer who actually thinks "full autonomy" is remotely possible in the near/mid term. The suggestions that it is possible, seems to come mainly from junior developers and snake-oil salesman. We don't even have "full autonomous" trains, planes, or trucks yet.

"full autonomy" means lots of different things to different people. Some people think of it as being able to drive anywhere at any time in any condition. This is unlikely to ever happen before AGI. What matters in Tesla's case is more likely being able to drive in some small number of places in specific circumstances without a physical driver in the vehicle (but possibly a remote one to handle unusual circumstances).…

What part of "full" is ambiguous. Maybe your point stands if just "autonomy" was used generically. But "full" has a specific implication.

Re: Tesla Shakes Up Model 3 Lineup

#108
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For me, the base model is all I've considered. Mainly because I want a electric car without any bells and whistles.

Would love one with computers minimized and privacy as a first-class concern, just like Adama did in the newer Battlestar Galactica, haha. (I do like the feature where the car slows/stops when it encounters an obstacle directly ahead. As far as I know it shouldn't require machine-learning/privacy invasion, but it is harder and harder to get one without the other.)

Automatic emergency braking is a pretty standard/available feature on a lot of cars.

Not sure about the privacy invasion part? I believe a lot of cars with AEB don’t have cellular connections so how could they invade privacy? I’m thinking of stuff like Honda Sensing or Subaru EyeSight here, or whatever Toyota puts on the Prius.

Re: Tesla Shakes Up Model 3 Lineup

#110
post #27
post #8

I've been considering a Tesla. Buying the base model with zero options just never really crossed my mind. Seems that's the case for a lot of Tesla buyers. For me it's like buying a base laptop. For my personal one, I'll always max the SSD and memory.

Seeing the feature lists of used cars with base trim is just sad. I once had a 2009 car without electric windows or central locking.

You can still buy a new wrangler like that.
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