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Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

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Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#101

Post by YjSe2GMQ »

CPLX wrote: post #48

This article is patent nonsense. Nobody knows what the fuck is going to happen to Miami in 50 years including the author, and an anecdotal poll of front line real estate agents is mindless. Even in that context the real estate agent’s worldview seems a lot more sanguine than hers. History has shown in this country that you’re a lot more likely to be right predicting that the rich will figure out how to preserve their…

It gives one schadenfreude to think that such people live in Miami. If only we could move all climate change deniers to low lying areas, and get others out.

Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#102

Post by bilbo0s »

Tsubasachan wrote: post #63
CPLX wrote: post #48

This article is patent nonsense. Nobody knows what the fuck is going to happen to Miami in 50 years including the author, and an anecdotal poll of front line real estate agents is mindless. Even in that context the real estate agent’s worldview seems a lot more sanguine than hers. History has shown in this country that you’re a lot more likely to be right predicting that the rich will figure out how to preserve their…

Rich people have multiple passports, Swiss bank accounts and real estate in New Zeeland for when shit goes down. They have options. Namely get the hell out of Dodge. I don't think they are really all that attached to Miami.

Miami's mistake was in not developing their port to be a more critical piece of infrastructure to the United States. It's just not that important as a port. As a piece of infrastructure in the US portfolio, it's totally expendable. It's just not a New Orleans, or Norfolk, or Galveston/Houston type port.

Not sure what the best way forward for Miami is? Dams and pumps won't help, because they sit on limestone. They could try to recreate Venice, but they already have some fairly serious issues with algae blooms. Shallow canals will definitely not help those issues. I don't know? Maybe there will be some new technique for living with water than comes along, and they can implement that technology?

But you're correct, at the moment, the most reasonable course of action is definitely, "Get the hell out of Dodge."

Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#103

Post by sosborn »

bluntfang wrote: post #52
ianai wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m similarly perplexed at RE. For one, I make a good living and yet I can’t find decent, affordable homes near me. They’re all dated and much too expensive/soft. Dated in that they almost never have AC despite climate change making it necessary in the area - and rampant lead paint/asbestos. Apartment buildings are similarly dated. Last I looked, in a big city apartment complexes were rare if they had one or two char…

>they almost never have AC despite climate change making it necessary in the area I'm really sorry but this isn't how climate change works. Climate change is a slow increase in average temperature over 100+ years that has dramatic impact on lots of things, but probably not the "need" for AC.

Just an anecdote from Hawaii. We used to have steady and regular trade winds that would keep the humidity at bay, thus making AC a "nice to have" rather than a "really want to have." That's changed as the climate change has shifted the trade wind patterns and given us plenty of more days in the year without this natural air conditioning.

I suspect the time will come when trade wind days are the exceptions.

Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#104

Post by closeparen »

michaelcampbell wrote: post #59
chii wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Many buildings are hostile to use of Uber in my daily experience. if there's already a taxi rank, then uber should be using that space to pick-up/drop-off. If there isn't, then the current building is _already_ unfriendly to taxis.

Except taxi ranks are a queue of fungible vehicles; uber/lyft's are "bespoke" so the exact same structure won't work quite as well. But it wouldn't be hard to make a pickup/dropoff area. I suspect there already is one at most places, it's just a pissy, petty policy that doesn't allow ridesharing (etc) to use it.

In SF planning meetings, I have seen buildings explicitly discouraged from accommodating pickup/dropoff on the theory that it would make traffic impacts worse (this is backwards) and undermine the “transit oriented” argument (harder to argue).

Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#105

Post by steelframe »

mcculley wrote: post #73
steelframe wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People don't like to spend money until they're in real pain. If you don't go to Disney because you have purchased a car that can't go there unless there are electric charge stations, I don't think that's painful for them yet.

I think we all agree that some investors won’t spend capital until it is too late. The thing that interests me is that there is apparently no incentive for real estate investors to plan for the long term.

If I were a real estate investor, I'd be wondering about all sorts of variables. How cheap will car batteries get? How will that impact the range that EVs will have? What charge standard will people prefer? What rapid charging infrastructure will exist?

It could be that nearly every EV will have plenty of range from just charging at home, and for those few who need to charge to make the trip, they will be able to get enough charge with a 5-minute stop at one of the dozens of 350kW chargers nearby.

Given all this uncertainty, why would I, as a real estate investor, pay for the increased utility capacity, the installation of the electrical lines plus permitting, the charging hardware (plus unbounded maintenance), and the hassle of additional policing of which stalls customers are allowed to park in and for what reasons?

Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#106

Post by pault »

cplantijn wrote: post #79
mcculley wrote: post #31

I live in Orlando. I have lived in Florida for all of my life (47 years) and I also wonder how we are going to adapt. I don't see any long term planning. A few years ago I was looking for a new office building. Considering the parking situations, I asked each developer what they were planning for electric cars, Ubers, and autonomous cars. None of them had a plan. They all said such changes were 20 years or more away.…

I've worked as an intern at a commercial property company (Colliers International) several years ago. One thing I've learned is that commercial property (be it office or residential) is always being sold. They are essentially large bonds you can touch and live in.Party A develops or buys the building, gains an annuity via rent, attempts to raise rent slowly over a few years (thus increasing the value of the property)…

Every two to three years? The apartments I've lived in raise the rent by $100 every year without fail.

Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#107

Post by hodgesrm »

Klathmon wrote: post #64
mcculley wrote: post #31

I live in Orlando. I have lived in Florida for all of my life (47 years) and I also wonder how we are going to adapt. I don't see any long term planning. A few years ago I was looking for a new office building. Considering the parking situations, I asked each developer what they were planning for electric cars, Ubers, and autonomous cars. None of them had a plan. They all said such changes were 20 years or more away.…

I know this is getting a little off topic, but I'm as surprised as you that electric charging isn't taking on at parking lots and structures much as I expected. I mean even Disney only has like 2-6 charging spots in each of their parking lots designed to hold over 12,000 cars per lot! And then you look at other parking structures and see that they have a token charger or 2 and the few I've reached out to never have a…

Market penetration by electric vehicle just isn't very high. It's in the very low single digits in the US as of 2018 and was far lower before. [1] Most parking structures were built well before it got near 1%. I doubt the availability will change very quickly without legislation to encourage retrofitting.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_t...

Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#108

Post by king_magic »

CPLX wrote: post #48

This article is patent nonsense. Nobody knows what the fuck is going to happen to Miami in 50 years including the author, and an anecdotal poll of front line real estate agents is mindless. Even in that context the real estate agent’s worldview seems a lot more sanguine than hers. History has shown in this country that you’re a lot more likely to be right predicting that the rich will figure out how to preserve their…

You really think it’s nonsense? I mean, it’s pretty clear what’s going to happen. The city will be under water, and relatively speaking, fairly soon. It’s basic physics at the end of the day.

Beyond that, this article really cuts to the heart of the astounding carelessness and wastefulness of humanity. IMHO, we deserve what we’re about to get.

Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#109

Post by mcculley »

steelframe wrote: post #105
mcculley wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think we all agree that some investors won’t spend capital until it is too late. The thing that interests me is that there is apparently no incentive for real estate investors to plan for the long term.

If I were a real estate investor, I'd be wondering about all sorts of variables. How cheap will car batteries get? How will that impact the range that EVs will have? What charge standard will people prefer? What rapid charging infrastructure will exist? It could be that nearly every EV will have plenty of range from just charging at home, and for those few who need to charge to make the trip, they will be able to get…

I get that some savvy investors may take all of the factors into account and decide to do nothing. That is not what I am seeing. They are not thinking about it at all. The entire real estate industry does not do long term planning, at least where I have lived for 47 years. Just as the article describes, it is a problem for some future entity.

You, as the hypothetical real estate investor, might care that the building you built two years ago is not the ideal place for affluent residents today. But as the entire local market is failing at long term planning, I guess there is no competitive incentive.

Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#110

Post by praneshp »

Klathmon wrote: post #64
mcculley wrote: post #31

I live in Orlando. I have lived in Florida for all of my life (47 years) and I also wonder how we are going to adapt. I don't see any long term planning. A few years ago I was looking for a new office building. Considering the parking situations, I asked each developer what they were planning for electric cars, Ubers, and autonomous cars. None of them had a plan. They all said such changes were 20 years or more away.…

I know this is getting a little off topic, but I'm as surprised as you that electric charging isn't taking on at parking lots and structures much as I expected. I mean even Disney only has like 2-6 charging spots in each of their parking lots designed to hold over 12,000 cars per lot! And then you look at other parking structures and see that they have a token charger or 2 and the few I've reached out to never have a…

qq: why is an expectation that there must be charging spots for electric cars? Dedicated parking lots for green vehicles, sure I can see some logic behind cities enforcing that. But I don't show up at your parking lot and expect a mini gas pump at my spot.
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