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Things Economists Agree On

gregmankiw.blogspot.com

101–110 of 131 posts

Re: Things Economists Agree On

#101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

do you have a blog ? seriously, this was a superbly informative rant.

The author is a crackpot . If you enjoyed this, there are thousands of crackpot blogs in this style. The style includes, but is not limited to, emphasizing random words in a sentence, inventing neologisms for people he disagrees with, and expressing extremely populist views. The fact is that more people have risen out of poverty in the last 50 years than in the entire previous history of the world, largely due to eco…

It's interesting to see how people react to walls of text with significantly less critical thinking than they do to shorter posts. I will admit that I was briefly under his spell as well, mostly because reading it all is quite fatiguing. It's also interesting to see that the author seems to write walls of text exclusively.

Re: Things Economists Agree On

#102
post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A few points: (1) Many if not most economists are empirical. Recent John Bates Clark medals---a good reflection of what academic economists think is the best work being done right now---have gone to economists doing empirical work. Recent examples include what works for development (evaluated with large randomized controlled trials), what are the causes of growing income inequality, how should we structure auctions e…

In response to point 5. Is it clear that per capita GDP is a good measure of standard of living? Adjusted median income has not risen much with GDP. Do you have an argument for why standard of living should be evaluated as a mean instead of a median? http://www.stanford.edu/class/polisci120a/immigration/Median...

There are lots of different moments & quantiles of the income distribution that are interesting and useful to look at, but its not like the mean is terribly misleading here. In the plot you provide, median income in real dollars has increased from 25K in 1950 to 40K in 1990---a 70% increase in real income.

Re: Things Economists Agree On

#103
post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A few points: (1) Many if not most economists are empirical. Recent John Bates Clark medals---a good reflection of what academic economists think is the best work being done right now---have gone to economists doing empirical work. Recent examples include what works for development (evaluated with large randomized controlled trials), what are the causes of growing income inequality, how should we structure auctions e…

GDP / capita is a pretty meaningless metric if you consider that wealth is a lot more concentrated these days.

Income is more concentrated today compared to the post-war period, but I don't think that makes the mean meaningless---it depends upon how much weight you put on a dollar held by different parts of the distribution. That being said, I think you'd be hard pressed to show that any part of the income distribution is worse-off in real terms than they were in 1950.

Incidentally, we only know about these changes in the income distribution because empirically oriented economists have been collecting and analyzing this data for many years.

Re: Things Economists Agree On

#104
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But it does suggest that economics is just politics by another name. A survey of doctors would presumably agree on the function of an organ, a survey of hospital administrators might also agree on the need to cut treatment costs - this doesn't mean the opinions are equally accurate.

The labelling that you've chosen "pro-business, anti-tax, anti-worker rights" is politics itself. The economists are more accurately characterized by 'anti-distortion'. The amount of distortion that should be accepted (for instance, to protect the disabled) is a matter of politics, but the article only addresses consensus issues.

True, but the article implies that "economists all agree on these things, economists are experts - therefore these things are correct"

But the same responses would come from US politicians of both types - would Swedish or French economists have the same views?

Re: Things Economists Agree On

#105
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

@HilbertSpace, your critique of "academic economics" is obviously heartfelt, but I couldn't tell what you're proposing as an alternative. Is it your view that governments, central banks, investment banks, etc., should just ignore economics entirely?

I was really responding to the start of this thread, but the larger situation, including for your questions, is just awful. I wrote something: The economy is IMPORTANT, but academic econ is a disaster. So, we have to roll back from academic econ and proceed mostly just empirically. For that, the AIG problem, etc. clearly show that we do need much more data. Net, we just didn't know accurately enough to know what was…

I would add that academic econ should put more focus on what is not known and may not be knowable as well. Learn to accept and work within and around that constraint, rather than try to assume it away.

Additionally, academic econ favors optimization and efficiency at the cost of robustness and self sufficiency. It would be in the best interest of the country to reverse that, or at least strike a more healthy balance.

Re: Things Economists Agree On

#106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, unlike with physical laws, economic "laws" rarely describe direct causal mechanisms, but rather generalizations about what happens when you poke a multi-agent system, whose behavior is often rather complex. It's hard to test, tests often throw up quirks, it's nearly impossible to control for all confounding variables, etc. In the rent-control case, for example, here is one (paywalled and somewhat dated) dissent…

A ceiling on rents reduces the quantity and quality of housing available. (93%) Counterpoint: surprising to me is the number of economists who "agree" with this statement. First of all, it does not compute, intuitively, to me as a logical "AND" statement. "Quantity" and "quality" are two completely different things. "Quality of housing" would be a function of renting vs. owning status (e.g. paying rent vs. paying a m…

>"Quantity" and "quality" are two completely different things.

They both cost to maintain or increase though - and rent control limits the returns of increasing either; which reduces the owner's incentive to maintain the quality of existing housing or to build new.

Re: Things Economists Agree On

#107
post #54

"A minimum wage increases unemployment among young and unskilled workers. (79%)" The fair market price for young and unskilled workers would be lower than the minimum wage, yes. Is this a good thing? For young workers, if young is less than 18 (ie, still in school), then this is OK. But, for unskilled workers? That entire class would be in poverty, as if they aren't on the edge of it now.

The problem is that the only real way most unskilled workers have to increase their skills is by working. Even those hired at minimum wage usually quickly move up to a higher wage as they get experience. Unskilled workers don't stay unskilled once they actually start getting experience.

Re: Things Economists Agree On

#108
post #45
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep, many economists do work for those institutions. And yep, all of them have /some/ particular axe to grind (everyone does -- I do, you do, etc). That doesn't mean that what they're saying isn't correct. - Businesses are, in fact, what generates most of the wealth and innovation in a country - Taxes, whether personal or corporate, are not economically efficient. Government can be compared to an electrical grid -- t…

>When it means instead "give us the power to force you to comply with stupid and inefficient rules about who can do what" (e.g. most modern union shops that I've encountered), that's bad for society. You've somehow managed to bring two logical fallacies in the same sentence — the straw man and the false dichotomy. No one genuinely struggling for the rights of workers ever advocates for either of those ways, and those…

>You've somehow managed to bring two logical fallacies in the same sentence — the straw man and the false dichotomy.

You're misreading.

I presented two possibilities, but nowhere did I claim that they were the only two possibilities -- ergo, no false dichotomy. You aren't clear about where exactly you believe that I presented a straw man, so I can't respond to that one. If you're saying that modern union shops do not result in the sort of inefficiencies I mention above, then the kindest response I can find is that we must have very different experience of union shops. I invite you to examine the union-imposed rules at, e.g., Yale Medical School, which is what I was particularly thinking of when I wrote that.

> The purpose of unions has always been to bargain collectively in situations where individual actions alone would result in a greater detriment to each worker.

Thank you for that basic restatement of the definition of "union." You did, however, leave out the important bit: that the nature of union bargaining is always the workers of a corporation demanding policy changes from the owners of a corporation.[1] These changes always involve a cost which reduces the bottom line profit of the corporation -- e.g. higher pay, shorter hours, etc. From a strictly short-term, monetary POV, anything that reduces the bottom line is non-optimal. In the long term, however, or when other measuring sticks are used (social health, GDP, etc) these changes may be enormously better than the policies they replace, because they result in more total wealth in the hands of the consumer, more leisure time in which to consume / innovate / create / be healthy / etc.

This is exactly what I said in my original post. Hopefully you will more clearly understand the more spelled-out version.

> A corporation is by nature this same mechanism [for using collective action when individual action would be sub-optimal] applied in the market, so which side you prefer — the worker or the owner — is fundamentally one of politics in the end.

While this is technically true (as in, it does not contain an explicit inaccuracy), there are some significant differences between a corporation and a union. Most notably, the benefits of being in a union accrue essentially equally to all members, whereas the benefits of being in a corporation do not -- the owners and top officers reap far more of the rewards than the "bottom rung" employees. Furthermore, their incentive structures are very different -- a tech support guy is paid $N/year as long as he shows up for work and the company doesn't go bust (incentive to keep the status quo), but the CEO is making most of his money off of stock options and/or bonus (incentive to change the status quo).

[1] I'm using the word "corporation" loosely here because it's more commonly applicable and it's easier than naming the various possible employing bodies (government, NGO, non-profit, etc). Most often it's a corporation per se.

Re: Things Economists Agree On

#109

I'm curious about the "Eliminate Agriculture Subsidies" one. I don't know enough to give a good opinion, but it seems to me like that could wind up pricing basic, quality food out of the hands of the poorest people, and they'd either have problems with starvation or be forced to eat junk. I mean, maybe I'm wrong, but I could have sworn it was The Man that is keeping eggs down at around $3/dozen and milk around $4/gal…

An additional problem with subsidies is the detrimant to international trade. For example, massive subsidies make corn in America TOO cheap, that everyone in Mexico City buys American corn! Yet comparative advantage would say Mexico, with a higher proportion of unskilled laborers, should be able to put corn on the marketplace in their own country cheaper, and build up their economy. Subsidizing exportable domestic go…

The only glaring flaw with your argument is that corn production is a capital-intensive process, not a labor-intensive one. High-yield corn is produced using big machines and lots of nitrogen-based fertilizer. A high proportion of unskilled laborers is useless for corn, but is useful for fruits and vegetables. This is why you have large pools of unskilled migrant labor working the fields in California but now Iowa.
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