Earlier quoted context omitted.
> If the first connection is over http then a man in the middle attack can succeed. There are ways to work around this, if the non-https site immediately redirects to the https version and a "secure cookie" (https-only) is exchanged afterwards.
Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but that's the exact vector point for a man-in-the-middle attack. First request over HTTP gets hijacked, redirected to a "secure" server, then you (the user) see the lock and go to town, secure in the knowledge that you're communications with this server are protected because they're encrypted.
If the request gets redirected to a HTTPS proxy site that the attacker has set up, that's a different story. But again, you should be checking what's in your address bar. No security system can rescue you if you can't tell the difference between "mail.google.com" and "mail.google.haxxor.com". But for those of us who actually read what's in the address bar, HTTPS is pretty good security.