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Apple Reports Fourth Quarter Results

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Re: Apple Reports Fourth Quarter Results

#101

Post by lwhi »

Steve Jobs is an amazing showman. He's got the ability to work the _full_ crowd, but he'll always have his eye on the audience members who have reserved the box seats .. the VIPs (i.e. shareholders).

By ensuring that shareholders are delighted, he makes sure that the show is lubricated with enough cash; so that they're able to ensure even more daring stunts and fireworks are available for the next season's performances.

I think it's wrong to assume that Apple are perfect. In my opinion, there are many things that could be improved about their products, but Jobs realises that perception is _everything_ and he's worked hard to ensure that Apple's image is carefully crafted and actually fulfils emotional needs that Apple's customers have grown to appreciate - and would gravely miss if Apple wasn't around.

The amount of vitriol that's produced by Apple's advocates (when the parent company is attacked) consistently amazes me.

Watching the show from the cheap seats, I'm reminded how every business action can serve multiple aims. Every (slightly or even, overtly) nefarious action can be teamed with a more egalitarian or idealistic aim; each of which can be used by advocates to fight Apple's corner. It's supremely clever work.

I'm not sure if a corporation which operates such a cunning, clever operation should necessarily be congratulated every time they release results. When smoke and mirrors are involved, I think it's worth trying to preserve some critical judgement.

Re: Apple Reports Fourth Quarter Results

#102

Post by marze »

cletus wrote: post #87
marze wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There were rumors of an Apple 7" device earlier this year. I wonder if they were deliberately started by Apple to send competitors down what they considered a blind alley.

I don't buy into this kind of conspiracy thinking. Apple builds more products than it releases. It's entirely possible (if not probable) that Apple developed a 7" prototype. Just like I'm sure there's been a CDMA iPhone prototype. That means nothing however. Just because there is/was a prototype doesn't mean there will be a product. I believe the 7" competitors come down to two things: 1. The competitors might feel l…

On the outside it is of course impossible to know. But if you listen to Steve Jobs speak, you see he has healthy sense of humor. I would guess if Apple did feint in the 7" direction earlier this year, Steve probably got a big kick out of now slamming competitors for following. Probably not as big a kick as he got from his comments about the PC being the "truck" to the iPad "automobile" that only farmers will still use, after in 2007 in his joint interview at All Things Digital with Bill Gates when he stated that PCs and mobile devices would coexist in a PC-centric ecosystem, but fun nonetheless. By 2007 the iPhone design was basically complete as were Apple's plans to supplant the PC.

In this earnings call, Jobs basically ranted about how it isn't Open vs Closed that is important. This is probably aimed at solidifying the competition's commitment to an Open system and making them less likely to switch to Closed and "admit Apple was right", when the "Closed" nature of Apple's devices is a critical competitive advantage of the Apple platform.

Re: Apple Reports Fourth Quarter Results

#103

Post by gonzo »

aaronbrethorst wrote: post #93
danilocampos wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh, too interesting. So because Steve holds the keys to the kingdom, incentives align in such a way that competition within Apple surrounds capturing his interest. Every system has an exploit – Apple's would then depend upon hacking Steve, or his circle, for maximum personal gain. Steve ends up being the filter for ambition that doesn't match Apple's long term agenda, while amplifying ambition that does. He's sitting…

Saigon...Shit. (Sorry, just realized that was way too cryptic. the Illusive Man was a character in Mass Effect 2 voiced by Martin Sheen. Martin Sheen, of course, played the main character, Willard, in the eminently quotable Apocalypse Now. One of the best lines in the film, in addition to the oft-quoted "I love the smell of napalm in the morning. It smells like...victory," as stated by Colonel Kilgore is Willard musi…

Everyone gets everything he wants. I wanted a product, and for my sins, Steve gave me one. Brought it up to me like room service. It was a real choice product, and when it was over, I never wanted another.

Re: Apple Reports Fourth Quarter Results

#104

Post by ewald »

jbail wrote: post #20
aaronbrethorst wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who's offering any interpretation? I'm sure not.

Buy the rumor and sell the news.

This only works if you know the future. After you've heard the rumors, and the news have been reported, you're already too late. Buy solid companies over time and keep them, that's what works.

Re: Apple Reports Fourth Quarter Results

#105

Post by cosmicray »

aaronbrethorst wrote: post #2

Down 5.8% (-18.70) in AH trading: http://www.google.com/finance?client=ig&q=AAPL edit: whew, and seeming to stabilize around a 4.5% drop still leaving it above $300. I was amazed it broke $300 so easily last week and was afraid it'd fall back below with this drop.

I'll throw my spin on that drop-off...

Say you're an Apple key employee. One who is prohibited from trading within so many days prior to the earnings report (because you have insider information). You sit there, note the stock price runup, and say "man, I'd like to sell a few of my shares at $300".

So you talk to your broker, personal financial advisor, etc, and tell them "I want to move 1,000 shares at $300 once the quiet period is over.

Bam, stock price drops temporarily, and then starts to trickle back up. I have no idea how many people are in this category, but I'm sure there are more than a few at Apple.

Re: Apple Reports Fourth Quarter Results

#106

Post by smackfu »

melling wrote: post #42

Will iPad sales dissuade developers from using Flash or promote the development of iPad apps to augment rich Flash sites?

I haven't seen it. Not having Flash is still a big bummer on the iPad.

Along the same lines, plenty of developers haven't bothered making iPad versions of their iPhone apps. I think Apple expected too much there. And the crappy pixel-doubled version is not exactly showing off the iPad.

Re: Apple Reports Fourth Quarter Results

#107

Post by eru »

danilocampos wrote: post #19

The iPad sales are just staggering. Moving that many units of a product that didn't even exist a year ago, in a category that was long thought dead, is incredible. Identify an optimal user experience, polish the hell out of it, then perform an airtight integration of every single component, from end-to-end. The software and hardware, the content ecosystem, the physical distribution, all of it fits together perfectly.…

> edit: Also, anyone notice how often Apple reports their "best quarter ever?"

It would be slighty more meaningful if you took inflation into account. (Though they are growing way faster than inflation.)

Re: Apple Reports Fourth Quarter Results

#108

Post by dasht »

mattparcher wrote: post #56
dasht wrote: post #53

Hehe. You know the old saying "always darkest just before the storm"? How's about: "always highest revenue just before the bubble bursts"? Huge numbers of consumer leaders or consumer suckers have, in the past few years, bought lots of this line of products. Either a large number of them and non-buyers agree "Well, that was worth it" or, the opposite. Place your bet. (I'm not saying "droid wins" or "MSFT wins". I'm s…

To be honest, each time Apple has a record quarter (which has been quite often lately) folks doubt that they will sustain that growth, but they’re almost always proven wrong. Where is Apple slowing? In Macs, which see only modest increases year over year, and iPods, which are in decline. But both of those categories are not losing to competitors — they are being cannibalized by Apple itself, who is busy selling incre…

I don't think it is so much Apple, per se, that is nearing the bubble burst as the broad category of mobile gadgets. The "was it worth it" question applies to the category more than the particular company.

Right now I see a lot of these mobile gizmos being sold as status markers and fun toys. Sure, for some they are valued tools but mostly: status marker and/or toy. A status marker branding for a mass produced, mass market item is inherently self-limiting (status markers have to be unusually expensive and scarce to last). A fun toy branding for a product that is fundamentally expensive to obtain and operate month to month is on a collision course with economic reality -- especially when it's a product that breaks easily, is easily stolen, and, anyway, needs to be replaced every few years.

I'm not claiming I can "time markets". Apple may very well have several more great quarter or, if the stars align, might tank after two. I am saying a sharp downturn seems to me to be inevitable and not too far out.

Re: Apple Reports Fourth Quarter Results

#109

Post by leviathant »

CamperBob wrote: post #78
marze wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There were rumors of an Apple 7" device earlier this year. I wonder if they were deliberately started by Apple to send competitors down what they considered a blind alley.

More likely Apple's feverishly working on a 7" device but it wasn't ready to be announced yet. This is a recurring trope in Steve Jobs's speeches -- slag an idea as being unworkable or undesirable, only to announce it at the next major conference.

I'm not sure why you got downvoted for that. It's demonstrably true that Jobs has talked down certain product lines before releasing something in that field. Remember that post-iPhone joint talk with Steve Jobs and Bill Gates, where Bill Gates was all about the tablet-format computer, and Steve Jobs dismissed that, focusing instead on the phone?

When the iPhone first came out, third-party development was, in Jobs mind, to be relegated to HTML and javascript. John Carmack had 'a fairly heated argument' with Jobs that had him saying "I have an iPhone right now and it's a platform I would enjoy developing for but Apple is not taking progressing steps in regards to [gaming]."

I' sure there are more (better) examples, but I think it's a pretty safe bet that when Steve Jobs ramps up the negative rhetoric towards something, Apple is simultaneously testing and developing something along the lines of that thing being dissed.

Re: Apple Reports Fourth Quarter Results

#110

Post by roc »

kenjackson wrote: post #60
glhaynes wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's just hard for me to see what value a 7" iPad would bring. Just as Steve said, I can't pocket it, so I still have to have a smartphone. And if I'm going to use something other than my smartphone (which Steve went out of his way today to say that most iPad buyers already have), why would I want to use something only slightly bigger? If anything, the 10" iPad is too small. The concern isn't that Apple couldn't make…

I disagree almost across the board with you. The 10" iPad is just too big for me to feel comfortable carrying around (and yes, it is too heavy. That is the main reason I returned mine). The problem today is that I have a phone that is really too small to be super useful. I've made considerable concessions, but really browsing and apps on the iPhone kind of suck. It's just they suck a LOT less than phone apps used to.…

Do you have a 7" tablet?
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