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Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

bloomberg.com

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Re: Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

#101

Post by graycat »

My old summary has been that current driving on current roads with current traffic occasionally but too often for practice requires actual, full human intelligence, generally that of a prudent person over 16.

So, the intelligence of a mouse, crow, parrot, dog, cat, monkey, elephant, dolphin, orca, etc. just is not enough.

So, self driving cars requires essentially full AI for driving and nearly everything else in life. So, the self driving car problem is no easier than the full AI problem.

Sure, there can be some special cases that are easier -- trucks in a huge, open pit copper mine, a tractor on a huge, flat farm in Missouri, some military battlefield situations, and the public roads if heavily reengineer them with lots of essentially electronic tracks, etc., uh, right, on roads in perfect condition, no big objects falling off trucks, no drunks, no tire blowouts, dry weather, daylight, perfect visibility, no alarms from an extensive monitoring system, and no rain, sleet, or snow. Then, sure, a "self-driving car"!!!!

Re: Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

#102

Post by skookumchuck »

scj wrote: post #24

Driving in dry / warm conditions is simple mechanics. Driving in snow and ice is an art. In snow and ice, variables that are typically constant or static become dynamic. Formally dynamic variables now become multi-variable equations. For example: travelling down a hill normally requires dynamically factoring for the extra speed due to the incline. Under blizzard conditions you have to factor ice/snow volume, as well…

Frank: Well of course I know all the wonderful achievements of the 9000 series, but, uh, are you certain there has never been any case of even the most insignificant computer error?

HAL: None whatsoever, Frank. Quite honestly, I wouldn't worry myself about that.

Re: Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

#103

Post by visarga »

dasil003 wrote: post #89
romed wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That Waymo has not solved left turning is not really a conclusion supported by that article. A supportable conclusion is that the impatient meatbags are angry that the Waymo van won't dangerously veer out into oncoming traffic.

LOL, yes, the meatbags. Waymo exists to serve Waymo's purpose, it is a higher entity beholden only to its funding source not to petty meatbag concerns.

Well, yes, companies are self replicators, just like living things.

Re: Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

#104

Post by graycat »

scj wrote: post #24

Driving in dry / warm conditions is simple mechanics. Driving in snow and ice is an art. In snow and ice, variables that are typically constant or static become dynamic. Formally dynamic variables now become multi-variable equations. For example: travelling down a hill normally requires dynamically factoring for the extra speed due to the incline. Under blizzard conditions you have to factor ice/snow volume, as well…

E.g., going down hill in the winter commonly requires putting the transmission in neutral since just the torque to the drive wheels from the engine idling or the engine braking can overwhelm the very tiny traction available.

There's a really short description for self-driving cars -- hyperhype.

Re: Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

#105

Post by spin »

batteryhorse wrote: post #90
spin wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In my entire life, I've never encountered the Trolley Problem, and I've never met anyone who has. Most safety problems in driving can be solved by slowing down . The problem with AI is all those weird, little edge cases that humans can reason through -- for example: if there's a deer next to the road, then I'll slow down, even if it's not on the road yet. I've known many people who have hit a deer when it spontaneous…

Perhaps most safety problems. But if you need to outrun an erupting volcano, a tsunami, or the police, slowing down won't really help you.

"... outrun ... the police"

I doubt that this is a use-case that legal, for-profit companies will be pursuing.

For the other use-cases, you can just say: Manual driving only.

Re: Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

#106

Post by CamperBob2 »

grahamburger wrote: post #31
scj wrote: post #24

Driving in dry / warm conditions is simple mechanics. Driving in snow and ice is an art. In snow and ice, variables that are typically constant or static become dynamic. Formally dynamic variables now become multi-variable equations. For example: travelling down a hill normally requires dynamically factoring for the extra speed due to the incline. Under blizzard conditions you have to factor ice/snow volume, as well…

This sounds like exactly the kind of job for a computer. I live in an area that gets a lot of snow. The only 'safe' things for a human to do in snowy, icy, wet conditions are: slow down (a lot), leave a lot more following distance, stay home. I talk to a lot of people who seem to think that they are able to drive at full speed in the snow and complain about all of the 'out of town' drivers who slow down the roads bec…

"Slow down" is not, contrary to popular belief, always the best advice. Slowing down too much in the snow is a good way to get stuck.

Re: Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

#107

Post by graycat »

rjsw wrote: post #42
throwawayjava wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The one glimmer of hope that I have is that I am literally incapable of driving in the snow without substantial software assistance, and that's true for literally every other human I know.

Is that with proper winter tyres or not ? With good tyres you can drive in pretty bad conditions.

Snow tires are a big help for getting going. They are much less help for stopping.

Re: Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

#108

Post by Niten »

mdhen wrote: post #54
athenot wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps San Francisco rain is solved, but I doubt the downpours we get in the South East are solved. Zero visibility is just one thing, how about hydroplaning when there is over 1" of standing water on the road because it's coming down faster than gravity can drain it away? Or spotting that your lane is fine but the opposite one is flooded so that car coming the opposite direction is going to have to borrow your lane…

Those conditions sound like you wouldn't be driving. So, solved. Pull over and stop

It sounds like you've never lived in the southeast US? These conditions can occur on a daily basis in the summer, especially in Florida. "Pull over and stop" isn't realistic advice here.

Humans can and do drive safely in these conditions, however, and it's a valid concern to point out that Waymo's West Coast-centric models might not yet be trained to handle these cases.

(To be clear, I don't doubt that machines will eventually surpass humans in whatever weather conditions, if they haven't already.)

Re: Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

#109

Post by st26 »

grahamburger wrote: post #31
scj wrote: post #24

Driving in dry / warm conditions is simple mechanics. Driving in snow and ice is an art. In snow and ice, variables that are typically constant or static become dynamic. Formally dynamic variables now become multi-variable equations. For example: travelling down a hill normally requires dynamically factoring for the extra speed due to the incline. Under blizzard conditions you have to factor ice/snow volume, as well…

This sounds like exactly the kind of job for a computer. I live in an area that gets a lot of snow. The only 'safe' things for a human to do in snowy, icy, wet conditions are: slow down (a lot), leave a lot more following distance, stay home. I talk to a lot of people who seem to think that they are able to drive at full speed in the snow and complain about all of the 'out of town' drivers who slow down the roads bec…

Well, eventually, when that computer has sophisticated software and all the appropriate sensors. An array of optical sensors that you ignore anyway won't really cut it.

Re: Self-Driving Cars Can Handle Neither Rain nor Sleet nor Snow

#110

Post by Hamuko »

graycat wrote: post #107
rjsw wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is that with proper winter tyres or not ? With good tyres you can drive in pretty bad conditions.

Snow tires are a big help for getting going. They are much less help for stopping.

This is so incorrect it hurts.
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