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SEC filing suggests MoviePass’ time is running out

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Re: SEC filing suggests MoviePass’ time is running out

#101

Post by Matticus_Rex »

emodendroket wrote: post #5
dwighttk wrote: post #2

It doesn't seem to be the sort of thing that even has a chance of being profitable... The only reason to join is to save money on tickets, the only way they make money is if people spend more on membership fees than the tickets they buy.

I could easily imagine myself signing up for a service like this and then forgetting about it for a month or two at a time.

I got mine around the time I was appointed as the DPO-equivalent for GDPR compliance in my company.

I still have it, but I consider it an aspirational purchase for a time when I can actually go to movies. I think I'm averaging about 2 movies for every 3 months.

Re: SEC filing suggests MoviePass’ time is running out

#102

Post by vm »

rossdavidh wrote: post #86
xigency wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they had the same kind of investment support, hype, and customer satisfaction as Uber, they might be really successful. But it doesn't sound like they have any of them. Uber is getting support from everyone to subsidize the cost of rides. And the ploy is to wait until self-driving cars are viable. I guess the market is saying that movie theater chains can hold out against bargaining for longer than that.

...and last I heard, Uber had a very high (>90%) annual churn rate in drivers, so if their flow of new victims slows (like a virus up against too high a percentage of the population with immunity now), they may not turn out as well in the end. It might suggest why Uber is maybe pushing to get self-driving cards as fast as possible; they may know they don't have all the time in the world before the current model stops…

curious where did you see that >90% driver churn data? many drivers I speak with have been driving with uber / lyft for years (in SF)

Re: SEC filing suggests MoviePass’ time is running out

#103

Post by giobox »

stefan_ wrote: post #82
adamc wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Buying its tickets at retail cost is crazy...

Their plan is to make it up in volume, clearly.

It’s either this, or grow big enough fast enough before the cash runs out that they have a strong bargaining position with big cinema chains to cut deals for cheaper tickets, perhaps also using the carrot of some kind of concession promotion to encourage subscribers to buy popcorn etc.

If this model works, it isn’t exactly hard for a large chain like AMC to do in house at all, I really don’t see the incentive to get into bed with MoviePass. Some European cinema chains already do this, like Cineworld in the UK.

Re: SEC filing suggests MoviePass’ time is running out

#104

Post by dwighttk »

scrooched_moose wrote: post #8
dwighttk wrote: post #2

It doesn't seem to be the sort of thing that even has a chance of being profitable... The only reason to join is to save money on tickets, the only way they make money is if people spend more on membership fees than the tickets they buy.

I feel like they're just waiting to gut the service (4 movies a month, or less) and hoping enough people stick around that they're better off. Before the price drop they were taking in about $1 million/month (20,000 subs at $50). They're over ~2~ 4 million subscribers now at $10/month. If they have even a 5% retention rate they'll have increased their revenue to $2 million/month.

but at $10/month you need most people to not even go to 1 movie a month to even have a chance of breaking even.

Re: SEC filing suggests MoviePass’ time is running out

#105

Post by dwighttk »

swanson wrote: post #34
dwighttk wrote: post #2

It doesn't seem to be the sort of thing that even has a chance of being profitable... The only reason to join is to save money on tickets, the only way they make money is if people spend more on membership fees than the tickets they buy.

The intention was for the core "unlimited movies for a monthly fee" to break even (which was plausible based on spiked usage up front that tails off ala gym memberships and things like bulk ticket buying). In addition to collecting analytics data and selling it to movie theaters and studios, the service also makes money by promoting movies within the app (paid placement). https://www.recode.net/2018/2/18/17025372/tra…

gym memberships lock you into a commitment... MoviePass is currently month to month.

Re: SEC filing suggests MoviePass’ time is running out

#106

Post by emodendroket »

dawnerd wrote: post #74
hkmurakami wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Back when Titanic came out, some classmates of mine saw the movie 9 times in theaters. Abuse is likely a big factor but there are likely some honest actors in there too.

Question is, how do they know it’s abuse? I have a feeling they’re just using that as a catch all for all heavy users.

Well, the heuristic seems to be that if you are getting tickets to the same film more than once, you're likely abusing the service.

Re: SEC filing suggests MoviePass’ time is running out

#107

Post by emodendroket »

ghaff wrote: post #73
emodendroket wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I could easily imagine myself signing up for a service like this and then forgetting about it for a month or two at a time.

You’ve pretty much described my usage of Netflix’ DVD rental plan and HBO streaming.

Yeah... I'm not speaking from pure conjecture here.

Re: SEC filing suggests MoviePass’ time is running out

#108

Post by compsciphd »

emodendroket wrote: post #37
LeifCarrotson wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've seen 3 movies in theaters in the past year - Star Wars, Greatest Showman, and Avengers. My wife, a Moviepass subscriber, has been to the movies some 60 times since December. She typically goes 30-40 times a year, it's one of her and her friends' favorite hobbies. You might go to coffee or the bar, I might go to the park or the gym, she and her friends love going to the movies. It's just a thing to do for a coupl…

When I referred to abuse what I meant to say is that the number of repeats suggests that a great many ticket purchases are not for the subscriber.

There are a handful of movies that are not surprises, but just fun to watch.

Avengers, TLJ, Black Panther, Greatest Showman are all movies that someone can enjoy watching more than once.

Re: SEC filing suggests MoviePass’ time is running out

#109

Post by thedufer »

emodendroket wrote: post #61
teraflop wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

According to the filing, this change reduced the cash deficit by 35%. That's very different from saying that it reduced overall expenses, or the number of tickets purchased, by 35%. It's not possible to draw conclusions about how many people were "abusing" the service without a lot more information.

You are right. Still, unless there was widespread purchasing of tickets for non subscribers going on, I would expect the effect of that change to be a blip, not a substantial drop in their cash deficit.

Unless you know more than us about their deficit, we can't really say how big this was. If they were spending 101% of revenues, for example, 35% off their deficit _is_ a blip.

Re: SEC filing suggests MoviePass’ time is running out

#110

Post by IncRnd »

pjc50 wrote: post #81
IncRnd wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's all about Failing Fast and Failing Often in today's world of silly business sayings.

Or as we used to say, anyone can sell a dollar for ninety cents.

You win! That's definitely a fast fail.
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