The Role of Luck in Life Success • Hacker News Board

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#101

Post by maxerickson » Fri, Mar 02, 2018, 7:48 PM UTC

mindcrime wrote: post #86

matt_wulfeck wrote: post #29

These kind of articles and discussions almost invariably lead to defeatists and cynical attitudes. It's akin to saying "Unless you're born with good genes, you'll never be an Olympic athlete, so don't bother training and exercising". You may not ever be wealthy by trying and working hard because of the role luck plays. But there's value in working hard at it that everyone should know, just like there's value in physi…

It's interesting... there's an anecdote floating around out there somewhere about a famous wrestling coach (quite likely Dan Gable[1]) talking to a group of young wrestlers and telling them something approximately like: "Most of you have the genetics to be an Olympic wrestler. But most of you don't have the work ethic". Of course that's just an amusing anecdote and there's no reason to think that Dan Gable is an expe…

And what if the personality traits that feed into "work ethic" have a strong genetic component?

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#102

Post by skookumchuck » Fri, Mar 02, 2018, 7:48 PM UTC

eric_b wrote: post #54

downandout wrote: post #43

One point of contention I have with this article is that it mentions that many CEOs were born during certain months and have names starting with certain letters. The mere mention of the phrase I am about to use always draws the ire of the HN crowd, but I see a big correlation/causation issue with that specific data point. As for the larger point of the article, I always frame this conversation in this way: if you wer…

I totally agree with you, but I'd add one additional thought. While being born in a first world country is a huge leg up - I think it assumes you're raised by a competent single parent or reasonably competent parent s . Having parents who understand hard work (and can show you what it looks like) and good financial habits makes it easier for you to develop those same traits as an adult, in my experience.

Once you're over 20, it's time to stop blaming one's parents and take responsibility.

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#103

Post by [deleted] » Fri, Mar 02, 2018, 7:48 PM UTC

raleec wrote: post #94

Apologies in advance but I must confess.. I don't get it. Can someone define luck? -I didn't choose my DNA. -I didn't choose my parents. -I didn't choose my circumstances. -I didn't choose which neural pathways were reinforced based on my experiences. -I didn't choose which environmental factors altered any of my biological systems. -I didn't choose not to die in my sleep every night from an undiagnosed ailment. Remo…

[deleted]

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#104

Post by skookumchuck » Fri, Mar 02, 2018, 7:49 PM UTC

tonyedgecombe wrote: post #65

downandout wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I meant a net worth of at least $1MM.

Yet there are plenty of people that work very hard without reaching that goal.

Hard works is not enough. You have to work smart - i.e. work hard at the right things.

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#105

Post by downandout » Fri, Mar 02, 2018, 7:50 PM UTC

tonyedgecombe wrote: post #65

downandout wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I meant a net worth of at least $1MM.

Yet there are plenty of people that work very hard without reaching that goal.

My point was that it takes no better than average luck for people that choose to work hard in high paying fields and make good life/financial choices to become millionaires. It may not be easy to stay on that course, given human nature. But barring very bad luck (major health issues, etc.), these things are entirely within your control.

Many people ascribe the consequences from bad or risky choices to bad luck, but the reality is that those are entirely within your control. You are making the decision to experience negative consequences when you make bad decisions.

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#106

Post by rambojazz » Fri, Mar 02, 2018, 7:50 PM UTC

caymanjim wrote: post #32

axiom92 wrote: post #3

I've at times stated that anyone who says that luck isn't important has possibly never had any success in life. There are a lot of things that can go wrong in any pursuit. Hard work shrinks the error bars in the distribution of success but doesn't make them disappear.

Anecdotally, I've found the opposite. The most successful people ascribe their success to their own hard work first and foremost, discounting all the benefits that luck has brought them, most especially the accident of their birth (rich country, rich parents, race, gender, date, etc.). On the other end of the spectrum, those who are less successful tend to blame all their failures on bad luck and discount their own c…

> The most successful people ascribe their success to their own hard work first and foremost

because it makes them feel greater, more merits for them and less to fate. They don't want others to think "ah you got lucky with that".

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#107

Post by skookumchuck » Fri, Mar 02, 2018, 7:51 PM UTC

amoorthy wrote: post #20

Just read this article. Very cool how the researchers simulated the role luck plays in society with some neat models. The conclusions they reach are fascinating and counter-intuitive e.g. >"[I]f the goal is to reward the most talented person (thus increasing their final level of success), it is much more convenient to distribute periodically (even small) equal amounts of capital to all individuals rather than to give…

Economic models developed by researchers have a tendency to confirm the opinions of the researchers. I wouldn't base policy on any of them.

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#108

Post by lisper » Fri, Mar 02, 2018, 7:52 PM UTC

I am financially independent and it is almost entirely due to luck. I was in a stable career as an AI researcher when, in 2000, pretty much on a whim, I decided to apply to work at an obscure little startup company called Google. It was the only startup I had ever applied to at that point (until then my ambition had been to become a university professor). Since 2005 I have participated as a principal in half a dozen other startups. They all failed. Being in the right place at the right time makes a much bigger difference than effort or ability. Working hard and being skilled can help tilt the odds in your favor, but they are neither necessary nor sufficient for success.

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#109

Post by amoorthy » Fri, Mar 02, 2018, 7:53 PM UTC

BatFastard wrote: post #83

noir_lord wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps to bastardise an old quote. "When luck turns up it better find you with a bag of cash"

Love that. I am looking at a great idea that I have been working on, but I am afraid to release it because I know it will be cloned in a matter of months since I can not afford worldwide patent protection.

Without much more data I'd say: 1. I once thought the same of an idea I had. When I finally launched it failed. So no one cared to clone it! 2. I have another idea I now think has merit. I've proven some traction with users. Enough that filing a provisional patent makes sense for about $2k. Might want to try this path too.

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#110

Post by lisper » Fri, Mar 02, 2018, 7:54 PM UTC

raleec wrote: post #94

Apologies in advance but I must confess.. I don't get it. Can someone define luck? -I didn't choose my DNA. -I didn't choose my parents. -I didn't choose my circumstances. -I didn't choose which neural pathways were reinforced based on my experiences. -I didn't choose which environmental factors altered any of my biological systems. -I didn't choose not to die in my sleep every night from an undiagnosed ailment. Remo…

I think most people believe that you can choose, on any given night, to study or play video games. And I think most people believe that if you choose to study then sooner or later you will succeed. And I think most people are wrong on both counts.