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China’s AI Awakening

technologyreview.com

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Re: China’s AI Awakening

#101

Post by gurkendoktor »

oblio wrote: post #99
eighthnate wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are leading in solar, renewable, nuclear, patents, electric vehicles, high speed rail, hydropower, # of cities, industrialization, # of new universities, etc. China is leading in pretty much everything right now. They are the top trading partner of pretty much every significant country. And they are planning on building another 100 cities in the next 10 years. It is ridiculous how much change china is going thro…

China was kind of domineering, but on a global historic scale they could be considered somewhat non-violent. They even got invaded twice while being the top economic power of their time. There are quite a few aspects I don't like about China, but warmongers, they are not. If anything, the modern era should be a boon to them, since developed countries are virtually conquerable at a certain scale, via modern technology…

> They even got invaded twice while being the top economic power of their time. There are quite a few aspects I don't like about China, but warmongers, they are not.

Is extrapolating from the past really useful if the Chinese government has been completely replaced in a civil war, which was followed by the massive changes of the cultural revolution?

Likewise, is Germany a dangerous country right now because "we" have started 100% of world wars within the last century? Honestly, I wouldn't even trust our military to capture Luxembourg right now... (probably for the better!)

This applies to all aspects of China's development, of course, not just their military.

Re: China’s AI Awakening

#102

Post by gph »

shadowmint wrote: post #14

Extremely relevant quote from the talented Mr Ng: > “When the Chinese government announces a plan like this, it has significant implications for the country and the economy,” says Andrew Ng, a prominent AI expert who previously oversaw AI technology and strategy at China’s biggest online search company, Baidu. “It’s a very strong signal to everyone that things will happen.” ie. There is going to be a tonne of money p…

The US has dumped large amounts of money and support behind huge scientific endeavors like the Human Genome Project.

Certainly that example helped advance genomic science and the biotech industry in America. But it didn't quite live up to the hype, and it hasn't exactly saved the US economy from the normal ups and downs of global competition.

Course ya never know, could be the start of the next ARPANET too.

Re: China’s AI Awakening

#103

Post by randcraw »

rcpt wrote: post #61
indescions_2017 wrote: post #39

Hmmm. MIT Tech Review now behind cognito-only browser shield? Is that new? What's really interesting is the continued trend of cashless WeChat Pay adoption in China versus say trickling Digital Payments penetration here in USA. I actually just had to order a new replacement set of paper checks. And its simply due to the fact that so many small merchants cite higher credit card fees as a reason for preferring cash or…

One advantage China has in payments is the lack of incumbent credit corporations. In the United States credit cards were widely deployed and trusted decades ago while in China tech companies have an open playing field where real innovation can happen fast.

That's a competitive advantage when it arises against competitors that you're willing to destroy. But in the years ahead, China's major competition will arise increasingly within China. That portends a lot of internal disruption of the status quo which the government is unlikely to anticipate (like the ongoing explosion of e-commerce there and its immeasurable disruption of the day-to-day lives of established retailers).

Despite China's outward enthusiasm for advancement, high speed change promises to destabilize the totalitarian gov't, which suggests that a bumpy ride lies ahead.

Re: China’s AI Awakening

#104

Post by congerous »

nopinsight wrote: post #19

Key competitive advantages of China are their strength in quantitative skills, a huge population, and the hard working and competitive culture of the populace. An objective measure is PISA results [1]. When comparing with even the best performing US state, Massachusetts, China has many more top performers in Math, as a proportion of population [2]. (In 2015 only four provinces of China participated, but their combine…

This article adds nothing new to the discussion about AI.

* We knew about Tencent's AI Lab (Saying you need your own capabilities is another way of saying: We have NIH and we will waste 3 years building our own framework from the bottom up).

* We knew about China's AI plan, which was announced in July. That was huge news at the time.

* We knew about Baidu, but Baidu is actually slipping. They lost Andrew Ng and Adam Coates, and frankly they have executed poorly on social media and cloud computing compared to Tencent and Ali. It looks like they'll lose their lead in AI.

And the article actually contradicts its own sub-headline: "The West shouldn’t fear China’s artificial-intelligence revolution. It should copy it." The West is leading in AI research, and China is copying the West. So what does it mean that the West should copy China? China is playing catch up in AI just like it has been playing catch up in GDP growth. Catching up always moves faster than blazing a trail. The West is blazing a trail now. They don't have much to learn from players trying to catch up.

Re: China’s AI Awakening

#105

Post by randcraw »

graeme wrote: post #84
LostInTheWoods2 wrote: post #75

The plan calls for homegrown AI to match that developed in the West within three years, for China’s researchers to be making “major breakthroughs” by 2025, and for Chinese AI to be the envy of the world by 2030. Really? Major breakthroughs can be mandated by a centralized government? Back in the 80s-90s, Americans were convinced that Japan was going to eat its lunch. It gives me some hope in knowing that we still suf…

Japan has a significantly smaller population than China (and the US). I’m not sure how this eluded commentators in the 80s, but it seems a major difference this time around.

It's not a difference in terms of using AI for automation, however. All the recent advances in AI are strictly on highly specialized tasks, have had (and probably will have) little impact on subsuming general task execution. Thus it's unlikely to replace an entire human worker foreseeably soon.

Based on their keen interest in AI, the Chinese gov't presumably doesn't yet appreciate that success in task-specific AI does not assure the advent of AGI any time soon. I suspect like the Japanese's 5th gen AI initiative, China's quest to give life to terra cotta warriors also will end in disappointment, before the passage of several 5-year plans, anyway.

Re: China’s AI Awakening

#107

Post by randcraw »

dis-sys wrote: post #32

I was reading the USNews CS ranking yesterday, got really surprised that apparently some Chinese universities are now considered as the best in CS. top 20 list: https://www.usnews.com/education/best-global-universities/se... https://www.usnews.com/education/best-global-universities/co...

Caveat: the US News rankings are famously cooked and unreliable. You'd expect that from a cash cow that singularly keeps the US News brand alive, as well as the deliberate efforts of universities to drive up their brand's rank.

According to Wiki, three more independent and open source of rankings are the Acad. Ranking of World Univs, Times Higher Education, and Quaccquarelli Symonds.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/College_and_university_ranking...

The Chronicle of Higher Education is also a well-regarded rater, esp. in assessment of research.

http://www.chronicle.com/article/The-World-University-Rankin...

Re: China’s AI Awakening

#108

Post by YeGoblynQueenne »

I'm getting a bit of a flashback to the Japanese Fifth Gneeration Computing project (I wasn't around back then; I've read about it though).

Then, too, an East Asian country (Japan) known for excellence in one field (manufacturing) initiated a state-funded research project into a promising technology (AI). Then, too, the West reacted with alarm, fearing the Asians would leave them in the dust. Then, too, the project was about AI.

Except, back then, it didn't go too well [1]. But, perhaps this is just pattern matching failure on my part and nothing is even remotely the same today.

____________________

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifth_generation_computer

Re: China’s AI Awakening

#109

Post by gph »

SomeStupidPoint wrote: post #80
TeMPOraL wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US government basically mandated the Moon landings, and they happened within 12 years from Sputnik. So I'd say yes, sometimes a government can just mandate progress.

Dont DARPA and other US gov research groups have a pretty long track record of successful projects? Computers, nukes, ICs, space, internet, self-driving cars, etc. They seem to be some of the most well used research money -- precisely the government mandating progress.

True, but a lot of those were more specific in their end goals. What exactly is China going for here? Sounds like just general AI research and advancement. That's not a bad thing, but I think it'll probably end up more like the Human Genome Project. We'll get some great fundamental science and advancement out of it, but it's probably going to lead to more open-ended questions instead of the world-changing end results that get hyped at the beginning.

Re: China’s AI Awakening

#110

Post by Barrin92 »

congerous wrote: post #104
nopinsight wrote: post #19

Key competitive advantages of China are their strength in quantitative skills, a huge population, and the hard working and competitive culture of the populace. An objective measure is PISA results [1]. When comparing with even the best performing US state, Massachusetts, China has many more top performers in Math, as a proportion of population [2]. (In 2015 only four provinces of China participated, but their combine…

This article adds nothing new to the discussion about AI. * We knew about Tencent's AI Lab (Saying you need your own capabilities is another way of saying: We have NIH and we will waste 3 years building our own framework from the bottom up). * We knew about China's AI plan, which was announced in July. That was huge news at the time. * We knew about Baidu, but Baidu is actually slipping. They lost Andrew Ng and Adam…

>so what does it mean that the West should copy China?

I don't think you're addressing OPs point at all. They pointed out that the US currently does have the lead in the field due to its larger prosperity for the most part, but that China is rapidly developing more talent.

What we should copy is thus not the technical status quo, but our attitude towards education and talent acquisition in the relevant fields.Technical advantages are not self-perpetuating. If the West grows complacent and does not develop the talent necessary to advance the research, then that lead will reverse.

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