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Aging Japan Wants Automation, Not Immigration

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Re: Aging Japan Wants Automation, Not Immigration

#101

Post by surfmike »

mc32 wrote: post #59
sumedh wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> why wouldn't we incentivize our own citizens to have kids I am assuming by "incentivize" you meaning tax payer funded policies so are you ready to pay more taxes? If you are ready to pay more taxes but what about people who dont want kids.

Singapore, a multicultural society, has a pretty progressive baby bonus[1], among other countries. They think that's what works best for their society. They could import labor, but they prefer do it their way. It seems to work for them. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baby_bonus

Their baby bonus also does not work, they have one of the lowest fertility rates in the world.

Re: Aging Japan Wants Automation, Not Immigration

#102

Post by StudyAnimal »

derping69 wrote: post #44
surfmike wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There seem to be two contradictory narratives: one, that rich Western societies are aging and need to make up for a big shortage of workers; and two, that automation has killed and will kill millions of jobs. Probably both trends are true, but each one pulls in the opposite direction for the demand for labor. Maybe things aren't as bad as people fear on either side.

Because the goal of mass immigration of unskilled workers isn't what's best for the country, its to bring in people who will be reliant on the government and thus always vote for more government, thus further consolidating power. Also has the benefit of driving wages down resulting in more natives being reliant on government. If we really needed more workers why wouldn't we incentivize our own citizens to have kids i…

Why encourage more population growth? To me it's natural that some more developed societies have less children, and other less developed societies have more, encouraging immigration is a win win without increasing the total population.

Re: Aging Japan Wants Automation, Not Immigration

#103

Post by aoeuasdf1 »

forapurpose wrote: post #78
petre wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the Eastern Block you had those two conditions checked and it didn't quite work out. This works in agriculture to some extent, but that's sector where automation already displaced most jobs and it will continue to do so.

> In the Eastern Block you had those two conditions checked and it didn't quite work out. The workers did not control the assets, unelected totalitarian dictators did, despite endless propaganda to the contrary. I'm not saying the idea works, but the Eastern Block was not a test of it.

How do you suggest accomplishing a massive redistribution of wealth without a state ("dictatorship of the proletariat")?

If owning & profiting from capital is impossible, what incentive is there to produce capital - it will just get seized. Where's the marketplace for capital, or does the state have a monopsony on capital purchases?

Re: Aging Japan Wants Automation, Not Immigration

#104

Post by StudyAnimal »

mc32 wrote: post #59
sumedh wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> why wouldn't we incentivize our own citizens to have kids I am assuming by "incentivize" you meaning tax payer funded policies so are you ready to pay more taxes? If you are ready to pay more taxes but what about people who dont want kids.

Singapore, a multicultural society, has a pretty progressive baby bonus[1], among other countries. They think that's what works best for their society. They could import labor, but they prefer do it their way. It seems to work for them. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baby_bonus

No it's bad for society. Kids cost money, immigrants earn money. Penalize breeding, encourage immigration.

Re: Aging Japan Wants Automation, Not Immigration

#105

Post by alphaalpha101 »

matt4077 wrote: post #87
alphaalpha101 wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lol. I'm not anti-immigration, don't be so defensive, and I'm also not talking about the US. Stop bringing up the US. This is a thread about Japan and I'm talking about New Zealand. The New Zealand government really wants people to believe that we're experiencing 'economic growth'. But while they might be technically right, they're effectively wrong. Economic growth that is so much entirely from immigration that we'r…

Lol yourself, and don't be so wrong. Here's per-capita GDP growth in New Zealand, showing that there is real growth after normalising for changes in population: https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&...

1% growth is completely irrelevant. That's what I said: effectively in recession. The difference between 1% growth and 1% shrink is nothing.

There's no reason we shouldn't be growing much more quickly. But we're not going to do so in a neoliberal world. That's just not going to happen. Draining the wealth of society to a small group of people that spend little money just doesn't drive growth.

People can't spend and drive the economy when they're dirt poor.

Re: Aging Japan Wants Automation, Not Immigration

#106

Post by StudyAnimal »

petre wrote: post #66

At least it's better than paying for immigrants that forced their way into your country as the Germans are doing now.

Go away racist. Refugees need a safe place and germany needs fresh foreign blood to keep its society running. It's a win win. German children are going to take a long time before they start contributing and even then they will end up on Hartz IV before they accept a normal job.

Re: Aging Japan Wants Automation, Not Immigration

#107

Post by petre »

forapurpose wrote: post #78
petre wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the Eastern Block you had those two conditions checked and it didn't quite work out. This works in agriculture to some extent, but that's sector where automation already displaced most jobs and it will continue to do so.

> In the Eastern Block you had those two conditions checked and it didn't quite work out. The workers did not control the assets, unelected totalitarian dictators did, despite endless propaganda to the contrary. I'm not saying the idea works, but the Eastern Block was not a test of it.

My poiny exactly. Giving too much power to the state would only turn it into a dictatorship (even if it's a tax dictatorship) for the ones in power will eventually sieze that power for themselves.

Shared ownership of production means is possible w/o a nanny state if the shareholders of a private company are also it's employees. But that doesn't really work well in practice, otherwise we would have cooperatives comparable to Apple, Google, VW or Samsung in terms of market value. I haven't seen any.

The safety net you're talking about could be group insurance policies negotiated by the said company. But why do this, when the same company could automate and greatly reduce expenses with insurance and health benefits paid to human workers? The purpose of a company is to maximize the profit for it's shareholders (by creating market value), as opposed to being a benefactor for it's employees. Of course, we also have a social responsability component but that's only because few people would work for an organization that would rip them off.

Re: Aging Japan Wants Automation, Not Immigration

#108

Post by petre »

StudyAnimal wrote: post #106
petre wrote: post #66

At least it's better than paying for immigrants that forced their way into your country as the Germans are doing now.

Go away racist. Refugees need a safe place and germany needs fresh foreign blood to keep its society running. It's a win win. German children are going to take a long time before they start contributing and even then they will end up on Hartz IV before they accept a normal job.

We'll see if it's a win-win in 30 years. I personally think the Japanse model is better largely because it doesn't create social problems and cultural rifts in society. Also look at Switzerland and it's hardline immigration policies, which are really the result of a very healthy respresentative democracy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiss_immigration_referendum,_...

Re: Aging Japan Wants Automation, Not Immigration

#109

Post by cattlefarmer »

hkmurakami wrote: post #96
mikekchar wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, the Filipino nurse situation was a debacle (and for the most part continues to be). However, the government has been routinely extending visas for those involved [0]. The reality of the situation is that it is very hard to live here if you are a foreigner with that kind of job. In the town where I live something like 22 of the 130 or so foreigners who live here are Filipino nurses. I've met some who have stayed…

I remember visiting my grandmother many years ago in an assisted care facility in Kyoto for people with dementia/Alzheimer's and was struck by how hard the nurses work was. I shudder and am in awe even recalling it today. I agree with everything you've said regarding cultural assimilation when you can't speak the language. If you're a knowledge worth in a major city, then you can get by since people respect you and y…

The other problem is that many folks working unskilled jobs typically don't care to improve their lot in lives. I've been working on software for managing cattle farms with customers all across from Kyushu to Hokkaido and our biggest hurdle is that the employees simply aren't interesting in learning or trying to improve their lives. This extends to some farm owners even.

Talk to them and all they care about is pachinko, women, alcohol and messing with their cars.

Re: Aging Japan Wants Automation, Not Immigration

#110

Post by cattlefarmer »

mikekchar wrote: post #81
jpatokal wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Japan's primary problem, though, is not a lack of skilled professionals (although as someone involved in hiring bilingual IT professionals there, I can assure you that's a problem too), but a lack of unskilled/low-skilled workers to work in agriculture, nursing, etc. And Japan is not at all keen on this type of immigration. As a simple example, Japan invited a bunch of Filipino nurses to work in Japan for a while, an…

Yes, the Filipino nurse situation was a debacle (and for the most part continues to be). However, the government has been routinely extending visas for those involved [0]. The reality of the situation is that it is very hard to live here if you are a foreigner with that kind of job. In the town where I live something like 22 of the 130 or so foreigners who live here are Filipino nurses. I've met some who have stayed…

I'd love to hear about that free farmland thing you mentioned.

I've spoken with a few entrepreneurs about trying to build something like a scaled up version of Farmbot [0] for small Japanese farms but most reactions I've gotten is negative. The councils don't want robots, they want young people back.

[0]: https://farmbot.io

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