Tesla's Long-Awaited, Lower-Priced Model 3 to Arrive Friday • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla's Long-Awaited, Lower-Priced Model 3 to Arrive Friday

#101

Post by jcheng » Wed, Jul 05, 2017, 4:16 AM UTC

giobox wrote: post #18

Robotbeat wrote: post #8

20,000 cars per month by December is an incredibly ambitious goal. If achieved, they have a very good chance of getting their 500,000 cars in 2018, something that virtually everyone (including myself) thought could not be done. So two things: 1) If you don't have a dog in this race, wait and see if Tesla really does achieve these goals. Outrageous claims require strong evidence. 2) If you're a competitor, now is not…

I've always wondered to what extent "traditional" luxury car makers have one hand tied behind their backs competing with Tesla in the electric market thanks to still having to support "legacy" technology like the internal combustion engine. The major German marques often seem to be investing in shared platforms for next generation models that support combustion and electric drive options, but it strikes me that a pla…

BMW tried a dedicated electric, the i3, with a pretty daring design inside and out. Sales were not good, unfortunately. http://www.bmwblog.com/2017/04/07/heres-last-years-bmw-i3-sa...

Re: Tesla's Long-Awaited, Lower-Priced Model 3 to Arrive Friday

#102

Post by Zanni » Wed, Jul 05, 2017, 4:19 AM UTC

FireBeyond wrote: post #26

jacquesm wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Tesla’s Model S outsells Mercedes S-Class, Porsche Panamera, and BMW 6/7 Series combined in the US Those cars are not even in the same class, of course Tesla would outsell them. Compare sales of the model S in Germany with the C class, BMW 3 (or maybe the 5) and just forget about Porsche. Other cars you could compare it with are larger sedans of the premium variety Japanese manufacturers (Toyota -> Lexus, Nissan ->…

Not sure why you're downvoted, you're right. Tesla S starts at $57K. - Mercedes S starts at $97K - Panamera starts at $86K - 6/7 series start at $81K/$83K. You're right, you're looking at mid-range Audis and the like. But having been in a 2016 S and several Audis the interior quality is hugely different. The Audi feels great, and the S felt like my eight year old Altima. I don't want to sound like a hater - the Tesla…

The Telsa Model S starts at $70, not $57K. You're quoting the "after estimated savings price" which includes the tax credit (a debatable inclusion) and the savings in fuel over five years (ridiculous to include in a cross-class comparison).

Re: Tesla's Long-Awaited, Lower-Priced Model 3 to Arrive Friday

#103

Post by magnetic » Wed, Jul 05, 2017, 4:26 AM UTC

ClassyJacket wrote: post #96

k3oni wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The first model 3's won't have any extra options, Musk made that clear a while ago by discussing the wrong release of the X with too many options that ended up backing up the deliveries.

But they haven't even officially shown off the interior at all . The car hasn't been fully shown, even in its one configuration.

Why is that a problem? They've gotten a ton of Model 3 reservations before people even knew what it looked like. These are faith buyers.

Re: Tesla's Long-Awaited, Lower-Priced Model 3 to Arrive Friday

#104

Post by yalogin » Wed, Jul 05, 2017, 4:42 AM UTC

Even if they hit their production targets, everything hinges on how well and how soon they can get their autnomous feature to work. If Google gets theirs to work and into a production car before Tesla does it will be tough for Tesla. Until then the stock will have good momentum.

Re: Tesla's Long-Awaited, Lower-Priced Model 3 to Arrive Friday

#105

Post by lquist » Wed, Jul 05, 2017, 5:32 AM UTC

yalogin wrote: post #104

Even if they hit their production targets, everything hinges on how well and how soon they can get their autnomous feature to work. If Google gets theirs to work and into a production car before Tesla does it will be tough for Tesla. Until then the stock will have good momentum.

Why will it be tough for them? They will be able to figure it out 6 months later. Google can't make that much money in the short term in the grand scheme of this potential market.

Re: Tesla's Long-Awaited, Lower-Priced Model 3 to Arrive Friday

#106

Post by grecy » Wed, Jul 05, 2017, 6:11 AM UTC

Robotbeat wrote: post #39

mikeash wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Note that Tesla's goal isn't 500,000 cars in 2018, but rather a production rate of 500,000/year by the end of 2018. In other words, they're aiming for ~10,000 cars in the last week of December, and probably less before that. This is easier than actually producing 500,000 cars in 2018, of course, so that just makes it all the more likely they'll get there. Will be really interesting to see how they fare in the next tw…

Assuming they meet 20,000/month in December 2017 as Musk says and ~40,000/month in December 2018 as you say, then linearly extrapolating between the two would still get you about 350-400k per year. Same order of magnitude.

And it seems likely if they can achieve 20,000/month in December 2017 they will be able to double that in 12 months.

I would expect them to double it faster, actually.

Re: Tesla's Long-Awaited, Lower-Priced Model 3 to Arrive Friday

#107

Post by dx034 » Wed, Jul 05, 2017, 6:13 AM UTC

magnetic wrote: post #103

ClassyJacket wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But they haven't even officially shown off the interior at all . The car hasn't been fully shown, even in its one configuration.

Why is that a problem? They've gotten a ton of Model 3 reservations before people even knew what it looked like. These are faith buyers.

Because Tesla still wants to exist in 10 years. If they disappoint eager buyers now it could be the last Tesla they'll buy. Next time they have to decide, most car companies will have a fully electric range.

Re: Tesla's Long-Awaited, Lower-Priced Model 3 to Arrive Friday

#108

Post by dx034 » Wed, Jul 05, 2017, 6:16 AM UTC

narrowtux wrote: post #22

jacquesm wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think any car I've ever owned has spent more than a minute or two at its top rated speed. Even acceleration is only important up to a minimum to get along in traffic. Even in Germany where cars are allowed to go pretty quick in some areas hardly any of them go at or near their rated top speed.

True, because it takes long to actually get to that speed. But imagine if you'd like to drive 160 km/h on the highway all the time, you probably need a car that has a rated top speed of at least 180 km/h.

Going 160km/h is easy with most cars. Problem is that it increases fuel consumption significantly so won't really be an option with an electric car (currently).

Re: Tesla's Long-Awaited, Lower-Priced Model 3 to Arrive Friday

#109

Post by dx034 » Wed, Jul 05, 2017, 6:18 AM UTC

Someone wrote: post #47

Jakob wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a little different for electric cars, though. Have a look at their current top speeds: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_electric_cars_currentl... Many max out at only ~130 km/h (~80 mph), most don’t reach 150 km/h (90 mph). The models described in the wiki table are also the maximum power versions of those cars. There are lower versions which don’t even get to this velocity.

I don't think that matters much. 130km/hour is enough for top speed in most countries. With gasoline powered cars you simply need a higher top speed if you want the ability to swiftly accelerate to that 130km/hour.

Problem is that a 130km/h rated car will only get 110km/h uphill. That's when it becomes annoying.

Re: Tesla's Long-Awaited, Lower-Priced Model 3 to Arrive Friday

#110

Post by skgoa » Wed, Jul 05, 2017, 7:39 AM UTC

Robotbeat wrote: post #25

jacquesm wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Tesla’s Model S outsells Mercedes S-Class, Porsche Panamera, and BMW 6/7 Series combined in the US Those cars are not even in the same class, of course Tesla would outsell them. Compare sales of the model S in Germany with the C class, BMW 3 (or maybe the 5) and just forget about Porsche. Other cars you could compare it with are larger sedans of the premium variety Japanese manufacturers (Toyota -> Lexus, Nissan ->…

And yet, by all appearances, the Model S /is/ cutting into S-class sales. Whether the experience is exactly the same or not is irrelevant. If you're a luxury car maker, you're already feeling this; it's not a hypothetical.

You keep claiming these things. Do you have any shred of evidence? Because from the numbers we in the industry are seeing, it doesn't seem to be the case.