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AlphaGo's next move

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Re: AlphaGo's next move

#101

Post by computerex »

Cybiote wrote: post #38
computerex wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you are being hyperbolic here. Go is in a lot of respect much more challenging than machine translation, speech to text and auto-driving. All of the latter problems you described have had solutions for decades whereas Alpha Go is literally state of the art. It even uses proprietary hardware (TPU's) and was essentially engineered by one if not the most elite ML lab in the world. Their solution consists of an e…

I agree, Go is a challenging game for computers but even more so for humans. However, for computers, Go is not more challenging than translation, speech to text or driving or understanding a comic book. The progression of superhuman play in famous board games has gone as checker->chess-> go. The more a game relies on memory,tactics and evaluation speed, the quicker it falls. In terms of commonly played perfect inform…

You ignored my post entirely. The fact that it took the most elite ML lab in the world to engineer this solution using proprietary hardware never seen before that's orders of magnitudes faster at evaluating than what's available to the rest of us is a testament to how hard it is to beat Go. For a long time it was believed to be impossible.

I am not comparing translation or machine vision to AlphaGo, I am merely pointing out that it comes with a broad set of challenges that you aren't even aware of and is a lot harder thank you think.

AlphaGo can beat the next best go playing bot purely using its neural net ensemble without using MCTS, for example. That's a pleasantly surprising result never before seen, to think that it can beat another bot without doing a single tree search during play and evaluation is also a testament to how impressive it is.

Re: AlphaGo's next move

#102

Post by andrepd »

Tar90 wrote: post #34
panic wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Life isn't simple in the way these games are. The choices you have in life aren't clear, and neither is what will happen once you make them.

Plus, these games are deterministic, whereas everything in life is a stochastic process.

Only because you lack information.

Re: AlphaGo's next move

#103

Post by nightski »

doktrin wrote: post #53
Grazester wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have been thinking about this a lot lately!!! I honestly feel a little depressed. I guess getting into AI would have to be the next step for people once interested in the programming field .

> I guess getting into AI would have to be the next step for people once interested in the programming field I don't follow. If a hypothetical general AI is sophisticated enough to replace software developers, wouldn't it also be capable of replacing AI / ML researchers?

I'd love to be proven wrong but that hypothetical general AI is at least decades away in my humble opinion. It's not going to happen without many more students and researchers in the machine learning/AI field. Now would be a great time to join and make contributions.

Re: AlphaGo's next move

#104

Post by andrepd »

temp_12345 wrote: post #75

So, a question bordering on the philosophical : What can be done to prepare for the end of human supremacy, and quite likely human civilization? For instance, as a software developer it feels almost pointless to continue improving at my craft if AI systems will surpass me within 2-4 years (even if the pessimists are right about it taking 5-10 years, that's still an awfully small timeframe). Likewise, it feels a littl…

> AI systems will surpass me within 2-4 years

Oh lord. 4 years ago was 2013. Was there such a jump from 2013 to today that makes you or anyone claim that within just 24 months machines will actually program better than developers, when there isn't as much as a proof of concept of that yet? Bar a major and unexpected breakthrough you can sleep assuredly that no machine will take your job just yet.

Re: AlphaGo's next move

#105

Post by tim333 »

temp_12345 wrote: post #75

So, a question bordering on the philosophical : What can be done to prepare for the end of human supremacy, and quite likely human civilization? For instance, as a software developer it feels almost pointless to continue improving at my craft if AI systems will surpass me within 2-4 years (even if the pessimists are right about it taking 5-10 years, that's still an awfully small timeframe). Likewise, it feels a littl…

Well, firstly AI outdoing us in software development is going to take a while, probably >10 years.

Secondly you're looking mostly at the negatives but not positives of AI advancing. Some of those:

We will likely use AI to enhance ourselves rather than just have it take over.

Such merging may lead to the end of death. At the moment sure you can develop away then age and die - the AI thing may be jollier.

Robots at some stage will be able to do the work so you should be able to have a hedonistic gluttony fest it that's your thing.

Re: AlphaGo's next move

#106

Post by resf »

ac29 wrote: post #97
temp_12345 wrote: post #75

So, a question bordering on the philosophical : What can be done to prepare for the end of human supremacy, and quite likely human civilization? For instance, as a software developer it feels almost pointless to continue improving at my craft if AI systems will surpass me within 2-4 years (even if the pessimists are right about it taking 5-10 years, that's still an awfully small timeframe). Likewise, it feels a littl…

Is there really anyone credibly suggesting software developers will be surpassed by AI within a few years? Writing arbitrary software seems dramatically more complex than what "AI" like systems are capable of today. Even 10 years seems impossibly soon.

People said the same thing about Go. That it was far too difficult and that a pro-level AI was 10+ years away.

What happened was new mathematical tools and new hardware were developed, and suddenly it was all too possible.

It's clear that with our current tools, general AI is out of reach, and new tools must first be developed. But because nobody has any idea what those new tools are, it could happen overnight or over 100 years.

Re: AlphaGo's next move

#107

Post by doktrin »

nightski wrote: post #103
doktrin wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I guess getting into AI would have to be the next step for people once interested in the programming field I don't follow. If a hypothetical general AI is sophisticated enough to replace software developers, wouldn't it also be capable of replacing AI / ML researchers?

I'd love to be proven wrong but that hypothetical general AI is at least decades away in my humble opinion. It's not going to happen without many more students and researchers in the machine learning/AI field. Now would be a great time to join and make contributions.

> I'd love to be proven wrong but that hypothetical general AI is at least decades away in my humble opinion.

I hope so. General AI is the source of dreams and nightmares, and I think it will take us decades just to adequately prepare for it from a safety & management perspective.

> Now would be a great time to join and make contributions.

Sincere question : short of embarking on a PhD, is AI research something the average dev (even a very, very enthusiastic one) can reasonably hope to contribute to?

Re: AlphaGo's next move

#108

Post by skybrian »

cocktailpeanuts wrote: post #88

There was a time not too far back when people used to be considered a "genius" for their ability to memorize things well. Nowadays nobody thinks of them as geniuses. Also, people used to be considered geniuses for knowing a lot of things. Nowadays information is just a Google search away, so knowing a lot doesn't really mean as much as it used to. What matters more nowadays is your ability to learn synthesize the thi…

Memory still matters when it matters. For example, when learning a new language. In general, good real-time performance is going to require practice and memorization. It's the trivial stuff you rarely need that's less valued.

There are some other things that I think are less valued these days:

- Informed speculation counts for less when you could do a search instead. Maybe a good thing?

- Cleverness counts less when there are memes everywhere. Jokes are ever more cheap and disposable.

On the other hand, good judgement of what you find still counts.

Re: AlphaGo's next move

#109

Post by BoiledCabbage »

nojvek wrote: post #66
mark_l_watson wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think I read recently that Google is attacking the problem of deep learning nets writing the network and model specifications for new nets. I will try to find a reference for that. EDIT: this is not the same article I saw before, but same topic: https://futurism.com/googles-new-ai-is-better-at-creating-ai...

I strongly believe AI will become a part of us like an external brain. Today we already have phones augmenting humans. Those smart phones will keep getting smarter and smarter.

Yes, but that period won't last long.

Pretty soon the benefits of having all of that computing ability, unrestrained by human limitations will simply be too great to ignore. And just like it happened in Chess, some form of intelligent agent will be the absolute strongest, and humans will have a playground to move in.

If right now, a hypothetical space aliens came to earth and said play one chess game for the survival of your planet, we'd absolutely put forward our strongest chess computer. Not a computer suggesting moves and a human ultimately choosing, but a computer to play the full game. This thinking will gradually seep down into less and less important tasks as costs go down, until they're used to analyze/decide/pick everything.

Would you pick your own stocks when your AI can do it better? Would you choose your own health care plan when an AI can choose better? "Hey AI, I need a diet that wil work. You know my psychology, you know my will power, favorite foods, pick my food for me for the next 2 months."

Then "do my job for me and give me the pay", "help my kid get better as soccer", "organize my schedule", "run my life for me".

And don't think it won't happen. People are too competitive. It will be looked at oddly at first, but people will see the results and then feel they're being left behind if they don't do it too.

Re: AlphaGo's next move

#110

Post by [deleted] »

nojvek wrote: post #66
mark_l_watson wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think I read recently that Google is attacking the problem of deep learning nets writing the network and model specifications for new nets. I will try to find a reference for that. EDIT: this is not the same article I saw before, but same topic: https://futurism.com/googles-new-ai-is-better-at-creating-ai...

I strongly believe AI will become a part of us like an external brain. Today we already have phones augmenting humans. Those smart phones will keep getting smarter and smarter.

[deleted]
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