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Survivorship Bias

xkcd.com

101–110 of 231 posts

Re: Survivorship Bias

#101
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Capitalism is a competition. [...] You won because someone lost. This is false, and frankly a bit insulting.

To expand... it's false, because wealth is not a zero sum game. There is WAY more wealth around on earth in 2017 than there was in 1917, 1017, or 117. Most of the wealthiest folks get rich by inventing/creating new wealth, not by stealing from others. If capitalism was just a competition, we'd still be fighting over castles and wheat and Trojan women. Cars, computers, and indoor plumbing wouldn't exist.

> wealth is not a zero sum game.

Agreed.

> There is WAY more wealth around on earth in 2017 than there was in 1917, 1017, or 117

Agreed. Also inequality is higher than ever.

> Most of the wealthiest folks get rich by inventing/creating new wealth, not by stealing from others.

False. They get rich by extracting surplus out of the new wealth created by someone's labor. Whether we call that stealing or not I don't care.

> If capitalism was just a competition, we'd still be fighting over castles and wheat and Trojan women. Cars, computers, and indoor plumbing wouldn't exist.

As I said, wealth is not a zero sum game.

But for someone to be rich, someone has to be poor. By definition. For someone to extract surplus, someone has to create value--i.e. work. By definition.

Now, you could argue that in a society with a lot of wealth, one can be "poor by definition" or a salaried worker, and still live a life in dignity. I concede that this could be a theoretical possibility. It could make for an interesting science fiction novel.

In most parts of the real world (including the USA), being poor is miserable and doing salaried work is alienating and most often exploitative.

Re: Survivorship Bias

#102
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taylor Swift telling you to put everything into your dreams of becoming a pop star is like a lotto winner telling you to spend your life savings on lotto tickets Except for the fact that you could spend millions of dollars on lotto tickets and have absolutely zero to show for it besides the loss of money. However, if you put in the hard work to learn to be a musician, perform in front of others, go through the fire o…

I certainly agree that your better off throwing your full efforts at well, anything other than lotto tickets, is the better decision but it is extraordinarily unlikely in the example of music that you achieve something resembling a decent career regardless of talent and hardwork. More like you get more popular at parties.

It varies. My uncle had a band and toured the small venue scene in South Louisiana back in the day. My mom was a chorus singer in the New Orleans opera company.

Both made varying levels of careers out of their talents and hard work. Both were popular at parties.

Re: Survivorship Bias

#103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would agree. One of the things I tell students is that studying success stories is extremely valuable, but only if you do it the right way. You're looking for two things: 1) Trends. 2) Ideas. Not blueprints. (On the med school survivorship bias comment: I don't know about the US medical system, but every other high-earning profession I'm aware of has a significant failure rate. Don't go to law school in the UK assu…

I don't know about the rest of the UK but in Scots law a surprisingly low percentage of students from the top law schools even manage to get trainee places. My wife is a fairly successful lawyer and she was adamant that she wouldn't encourage our kids to go into law - too brutal and the probability of success too low to make it worth it. The other nasty secret is that a lot of people who are partners at smaller firms…

That tallies with what I've heard about the rest of the UK and the legal profession, although I'm Scotland-based too.

Re: Survivorship Bias

#105
post #23

Most people are missing the point a bit here. Survivorship bias doesn't relate to people who worked hard, improved themselves and now earn 1-10MM/yr. There are loads of stories like that. Survivorship bias is "Zuck did X, Y and Z, if I do the same then I'll be a multi-billionaire too!" Following the playbook of those that made it into the top 0.001% is foolish and does not properly account for the large part luck pla…

My favorite example of survivorship bias is the US Navy's statistical analysis of returning WW2 planes to determine what parts of the planes received the most damage from anti-aircraft fire.

The idea was to selectively add armor to the areas most likely to get hit.

But by analyzing returning planes, their sample excluded the planes that were lost.

So the better strategy was to add armor to the areas with the least damage instead.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias#/media/File:...

Now I see survivorship bias everywhere.

Retail chains improve their comparable store sales metrics not by actually increasing sales, but by closing stores with declining sales.

Money managers and traders with the highest performance often have no special talent, they're just ones who survived.

Re: Survivorship Bias

#106
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Capitalism is a competition. [...] You won because someone lost. This is false, and frankly a bit insulting.

To expand... it's false, because wealth is not a zero sum game. There is WAY more wealth around on earth in 2017 than there was in 1917, 1017, or 117. Most of the wealthiest folks get rich by inventing/creating new wealth, not by stealing from others. If capitalism was just a competition, we'd still be fighting over castles and wheat and Trojan women. Cars, computers, and indoor plumbing wouldn't exist.

Of course wealth is a zero zum game, because being wealthy is defined as having much more than others, disregarding the absolute amount. This is how we humans work, we compare us to our neighbors.

So 1) not everyone can be wealthy and 2) for a single person to become more wealthy someone else gets poorer.

Re: Survivorship Bias

#107
post #8
post #4

Like Bo Burnham said: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=q-JgG0ECp2U

When I saw the comic in my feeds this morning I immediately thought of Darius Kazemi's XOXO talk: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l_F9jxsfGCw

I was reminded of that talk when I saw the comic, and surprised to see the comments debating the influence of luck and effort in life outcomes.

Both media are making the same joke, but I don't think anyone would feel a need to defend effort if they had seen the talk instead of the comic. The talk's beat-for-beat parody of the just-so success story paints a very clear and recognizable target.

Re: Survivorship Bias

#108
post #69
post #23

Most people are missing the point a bit here. Survivorship bias doesn't relate to people who worked hard, improved themselves and now earn 1-10MM/yr. There are loads of stories like that. Survivorship bias is "Zuck did X, Y and Z, if I do the same then I'll be a multi-billionaire too!" Following the playbook of those that made it into the top 0.001% is foolish and does not properly account for the large part luck pla…

> There are loads of stories like that. Not compared with the loads of stories of people who worked hard, improved themselves, and still don't earn anywhere near $1M/yr. Otherwise thinking that those successes have some meaningful advice to offer wouldn't be survivorship bias, it'd actually be correct. > Following the playbook of those that made it into the top 0.001% is foolish and does not properly account for the…

> As some guy once said

In case anyone's curious, it was Bo Burnham in a Conan interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q-JgG0ECp2U

Re: Survivorship Bias

#109
post #72
post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There are loads of stories like that. Not compared with the loads of stories of people who worked hard, improved themselves, and still don't earn anywhere near $1M/yr. Otherwise thinking that those successes have some meaningful advice to offer wouldn't be survivorship bias, it'd actually be correct. > Following the playbook of those that made it into the top 0.001% is foolish and does not properly account for the…

>Not compared with the loads of stories of people who worked hard, improved themselves, and still don't earn anywhere near $1M/yr The vast majority of single digit millionaires are doctors, lawyers, construction company owners. I've even personally met a factory worker who retired with > $1mm in savings due to prudent money management (no lottery wins, just basic financial management for 30+ years). I live in a compl…

Not to take anything away from your stories because I don't think that group is the problem (as the Economist wrote in an article, it's the 0.01% not the 1% we should worry about, we are much more top-heavy than we think), I would just like to raise this question: Do you know the difference between advice that works for anyone and advice that works for everyone?

Because I have a strong suspicion this is the former. It only works until everybody starts believing and following it. The American dream, for example. Which stopped working, it is said... because it just doesn't work for everyone?

My point is, what if what you say already happened and didn't pan out, what if too many people tried for it to work? So what we have now is not that everybody is lazy, but that too many people realized the system doesn't work for everyone, only for some. Who those "some" are does not matter, it's not a feudal system where titles are inherited so we have more flexibility and who is on top changes. It's just that there can't be too many. Not because it's completely impossible, but just the way everything is set up currently, which seems to promote a flow to the top instead of "trickle down". I certainly don't provide here a complete model to understand what happens, not even close, I just want to give a nudge, a hint of something else there than "laziness". We are way down the path of an endless feedback cycle.

Re: Survivorship Bias

#110
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That link turns into a download, at least in Chrome.

I just opened it, also in Chrome, and it took me to the website

Unclear what's going on but I get an application/octet-stream which hangs after the first ~23KB from both Chrome and Firefox. I'm assuming it's an issue with a proxy on the network I'm using but it's definitely unusual.
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