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I’m Done Pretending SF Tech Is Visionary

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Re: I’m Done Pretending SF Tech Is Visionary

#101
post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had a passion for tech. Then it was beaten out of me by large, successful tech companies. Some day, the majority of us who are relegated to inane, shitty work will wake up and acknowledge that. So what do you do when you are a capable programmer who isn't rich enough to work on something challenging/interesting/meaningful like electric cars or rockets? Maximize expected value. That's not immoral. That's the shitty…

> So what do you do when you are a capable programmer who isn't rich enough to work on something challenging/interesting/meaningful like electric cars or rockets? The list of meaningful things a capable programmer is way longer than that! You dont have to quit yiur dayjob to work on them and get some fulfillment/validation. I'll add: Rockets and electric cars are just at a certain point in their hype-cycles, and you'…

[deleted]

Re: I’m Done Pretending SF Tech Is Visionary

#103
post #25
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's all about people who've seen how absurdly rich you can get, and want a piece of that. That's all there is to it. The rest is window dressing and empty words to facilitate an IPO, selling the company, or hitting that lucky lottery win in some other way. When it inevitably, eventually implodes, nothing of lasting value will be lost.

It's all about people who've seen how absurdly rich you can get, and want a piece of that. That about sums it up. If people suddenly became rich through farming, you'd see people flocking to the mid-west. A lot of people claim a higher calling or passion for tech, but it's mostly just dollar signs in their eyes.

> A lot of people claim a higher calling or passion for tech, but it's mostly just dollar signs in their eyes.

AFAICT, tech was full of passionate people (at the very least about building something, if not changing the world), way back before it had the cultural cachet that it now does. As it became increasingly clear that there was a lot of money in tech, what I call (generically) "the finance crowd"[1] flooded in. By which I mean, the masses of more-or-less competent people across the country/world who really don't care too much what they study/work in, as long as it's profitable.

The beef I have with thinking like yours is that there are plenty of us still around who were here before working in tech went from being nerdy to (relatively) "cool", and we'll be here if and when it stops being the industry du jour. It kinda sucks when people like you make the leap from "most people these days are chasing dollars and paying lip service to passion" to "anyone who claims they love/believe in what they do is just chasing $$". To this day I know plenty of people who would be here even if it didn't happen to be the currently-booming industry.

To be fair, the oblivious author is far guiltier of this than you; he's a perfect example of what he's whining about hating, and if he bothered learning anything about the history of tech in the area, he wouldn't be so quick to assume that those who claim an affinity for it are completely hollow.

Though I have to say, getting here years before the rush provides the nice consolation of not having to compete in the ludicrous housing market that the boom + lack of construction has spawned.

[1] I may be guilty of making the same over-generalizing mistake about finance, but I know quite a few people who work in finance and have been legitimately passionate about finance as a concept and the technical challenges involved therein since they were pretty young. Every single one of them has had that passion beaten out of them by the industry itself and the people they're surrounded by. By contrast, I still know tons of people in tech turning down big paychecks to just work on stuff that they like working on (I quit my job last year and am taking about a 50% paycut for similar reasons).

Re: I’m Done Pretending SF Tech Is Visionary

#104
post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seriously? A billion+ people use Facebook products, many hundreds of millions very happily.

I am sure I have seen research claiming that excessive facebook use makes people less happy.

Excessive _damn-near-anything_ makes you unhappy or is otherwise bad for you. That's....pretty much what the word excessive means! The idea that it's possible to use something excessively means it's of little value is just beyond ludicrous.

Re: I’m Done Pretending SF Tech Is Visionary

#105
post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Entrepreneurs and companies that get started are utterly desparate for solvable problems to solve. The ideas may seem "stupid" to you, but that's only because biggest problems have way too many barriers to entry and are typically guarded by rent seeking government lobbying legislation. Take homelessness. I'm sure there's a technical way to build housing for cheap enough to get people back into houses. But, the govern…

Regulations didn't stop Uber or Airbnb.

It's simply intellectually lazy to assume that that must apply universally. It's usually useful to think through how that happened and what that might imply about when the political will doesn't exist to push back against loopholes.

In the case of Uber, the class of people that benefited economically were the kind that wield a fair amount of money and political influence. This means that 1) Uber had enough revenue (and promise of future revenue) that they had the resources to fight legal battles and 2) a reasonably politically influential class of people was likely to be on their side in any potential regulatory battle. As an aside, the perceived minimum reasonable amount of regulation required for housing is a good deal higher than that of transport. This makes forward movement without the co-operation of the regulatory regime much more difficult, since working outside of the regulatory framework exposes you to real problems involving sanitation, fire safety, infrastructure, etc[1].

The homeless unfortunately _don't_ wield these kind of resources or political influence, so efforts to route around housing regulation in a way that benefits the homeless has no economic incentive backing it (and much of the time and money currently dedicated to fighting homelessness generally doesn't think of housing regulation as a problem). This isn't even entirely hypothetical; the article I linked in this comment is about a guy in LA building mini-houses for the homeless that the city keeps tearing down. I'm not even saying that they're necessarily wrong to do so, just that "derp other companies in unrelated contexts weren't stopped by regulation" doesn't even close to approach a sensible response to "regulation might impede improvement of the housing problem".

[1] http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-tiny-houses-seiz...

Re: I’m Done Pretending SF Tech Is Visionary

#106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Entrepreneurs and companies that get started are utterly desparate for solvable problems to solve. The ideas may seem "stupid" to you, but that's only because biggest problems have way too many barriers to entry and are typically guarded by rent seeking government lobbying legislation. Take homelessness. I'm sure there's a technical way to build housing for cheap enough to get people back into houses. But, the govern…

In what specific ways is homelessness a problem which is illegal to solve?

I'm not the parent commenter, but I've heard this complaint before, and it usually boils down to zoning and some types of development limits drastically reducing the efficiency of the housing market (in terms of provision of housing to the most people). AFAICT, it's not really controversial that land use regulation is a big chunk of what's responsible for the craziest housing markets in the country[1].

An illustrative example is the shocking cost-effectiveness of trailer parks. The fact that the land beneath the trailer generally isn't owned means that they're technically free of a lot of the weird distortions of the regular property market, and thus people who would otherwise be homeless are able to avoid the impossible choice of a house they can't afford or living on the sidewalk.

[1] http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21647614-poor-land-use...

Re: I’m Done Pretending SF Tech Is Visionary

#107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually no. I'm making the software that did not previously exist. Others down the road can then use it to produce better performing products. Passive aggressive word games aside, you really can't compare "reducing the global need for oil" to "snapchat for cats".

> Passive aggressive word games aside, you really can't compare "reducing the global need for oil" to "snapchat for cats". Actually. By reducing the consumption of oil, it becomes cheaper to travel and people will travel more... increasing the consumption of oil. Game word in point: You might be having the opposing effect of what you think :D

That would be Jevon's Paradox: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

Re: I’m Done Pretending SF Tech Is Visionary

#108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If our economic system as we know it is no longer capable of delivering innovation, then something is seriously wrong and we should be reevaluating why we are still using that system.

Has anyone actually made a serious case that innovation has stopped? The closest I've ever seen are people asserting that things they feel are obvious in retrospect aren't innovations, but that's just a silly bias.

Stopped no. Stagnated, yes.

I've made at least a dozen posts explaining the Stagnation Hypothesis, there's a long list of people in Silicon Valley who take it seriously. The basic idea is that since '73 the rate of change has slowed down. This excludes computation of course. It is an explanation for present day economic stresses in the West that I believe hangs together far better than the mainstream theories that get news headlines.

Re: I’m Done Pretending SF Tech Is Visionary

#109
Strong, much-needed words here:

"Right now, entrepreneurs are trying to fix things that aren’t broken. And we can all name a lot of things that are broken: healthcare, education, homelessness and poverty, food waste, climate change…"

Damn right. Those are real problems.

But then the author praises Elon Musk for sending people to Mars. For prioritising space exploration over alleviating famine, poverty, illiteracy, whatnot.

The author's utter inability and unwillingness to distinguish between frivolous and meaningful is precisely the problem he's denouncing.

Re: I’m Done Pretending SF Tech Is Visionary

#110
Elon Musk's first successful exit was Zip2 that provided online city guide software to newspapers. Bill Gates sold Basic Interpreter to MITS. How successful would they have been if the first problems they had picked to solve was landing man on Mars and eliminating Polio from the world.

Sometimes, its all right to work on smaller problems until you are ready for the bigger ones.

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