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Artificial Intelligence Software Is Booming, But Why Now?

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101–110 of 141 posts

Re: Artificial Intelligence Software Is Booming, But Why Now?

#101
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The same technology which beat Go could also, in principle, be used to play a real time video game that requires hunting and stalking things. If you generalize things enough to mean application of linear algebra, the chain rule and map, then yes that's true. However, the fact is that Neural networks still take a huge amount of skill and experimentation to design new architectures. The more powerful deeplearning bec…

>If you generalize things enough to mean application of linear algebra, the chain rule and map, then yes that's true. However, the fact is that Neural networks still take a huge amount of skill and experimentation to design new architectures. The more powerful deeplearning becomes, the less skill will be required to do complicated things. Sort of. Hyperparameter tuning is indeed difficult, but in principle it can be…

> Sort of. Hyperparameter tuning is indeed difficult, but in principle it can be automated and there has been great work on this in the past few years.

There's far more to modification than just hyperparameter tuning; this is why people can keep turning out papers on the latest breakthrough. The gates of LSTMs are a non-trivial addition to RNNs. Attaching a differentiable stack or figuring out how to best do soft attention requires far more thought than just bashing at hyperparameters. CTC, dilated convolutions, residuals, extending auto-encoders to capture the data distribution were not trivial ideas. VGGNet and other conv nets are a very manual heavy design, differing significantly from vanilla MLPs and not something that could be automatically arrived at (at least not yet). Things like FractalNet or recursive tree based architectures differ greatly from vanilla networks.

> Even if the number of layers and convolution sizes and learning rates are totally different, the principles are the same.

Again, the underlying captured algorithms are very different. If you could look at the underlying source code these neural net programs represent, they'd vary at least as much from each other as the code for say a merge sort, insertion sort, binary search or an AVL tree would.

> This problem was solved in the past with temporal difference learning. Maybe there are technical reasons they didn't do that, I don't know.

The problem pointed out in the lecture, part of why it took so long to find a good Go policy, was that immediate moves differed so little from each other that it was too difficult to get any kind of signal without the brute force approach to decorrelating they took. There are probably better ways but that was the shortest delta available to progress.

Re: Artificial Intelligence Software Is Booming, But Why Now?

#102
post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't buy that. Spiders can't beat a human at Go. Sure, they weren't evolved to do that. But how many generations of selective breeding do you think it would take to evolve a spider that could beat the best humans at go? Whereas if you made a spider hunting video game, I bet researchers could train AI's that could beat it within a few months. Video game playing has actually become a big area of research recently an…

I think you're missing the point there. Portia is able to, using just a handful of neurons (~600K), accomplish sophisticated vision tasks, complex planning, online learning and scheduling. Portia and insects in general are much more flexible to changes than our Neural nets. Changing objectives or a slight modification in the rules will often require retraining and a new design but insects can adapt to various lightin…

How many connections betweens those 600k neurons? That is one large difference between biological and artificial neural networks (though there are many others).

Current DNN architectures won't be the final solutions, but they do the job much better than anything else we've tried before. That said there is ongoing work in more biologically inspired approaches that might produce better results for the things you mentioned in the future

Re: Artificial Intelligence Software Is Booming, But Why Now?

#103
post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is a part of the problem: they assigned people for the task, and produced open-source libraries for matrices, FFT, maybe even something for DNNs. But, those are not polished much, and you have to hunt them down and install them yourself. And, they do a really bad job at marketing. On the other hand, finding and installing those libraries is nothing compared to actually developing GPU computing software, so, as I…

I haven't seen CuDNN equivalents (in terms of perf) for common machine learning frameworks from AMD. I don't think they exist, if they did, people would shift to using AMD. For NVidia I have seen some faster kernels than the ones supplied by NVidia - https://github.com/NervanaSystems/neon - though CuDNN introduced Winograd kernels too in their last update

I do not know about the quality of this since I do not use NNs, but there is https://github.com/hughperkins/DeepCL and I think I have seen others.

Re: Artificial Intelligence Software Is Booming, But Why Now?

#105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And then there's the metric of how pitifully little intelligence we've managed to get from all those GFLOPS. I'd say that all the GFLOPS together don't add up to the intelligence of a single Portia africana. http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/01/160121-jumping-sp...

I don't buy that. Spiders can't beat a human at Go. Sure, they weren't evolved to do that. But how many generations of selective breeding do you think it would take to evolve a spider that could beat the best humans at go? Whereas if you made a spider hunting video game, I bet researchers could train AI's that could beat it within a few months. Video game playing has actually become a big area of research recently an…

I agree that mastering board games requires intelligence. I also agree that good chess players are usually intelligent, even quite smart. But it's not like people's abilities in chess are directly proportional to their intelligence, is it?

I mean, you would probably have mediocre chess players that could beat Plato or Darwin or Einstein.

Why is it that computers' abilities to win chess or Go are seen as the proxy for how far AI has come? As if the pinnacle of civilisation is Go or if Magnus Carlsen is the greatest mind of all times. Go and chess are sports. It's rugby for nerds. A computer beating Kasparov is impressive in its own right, but it's a far cry from the computer having his intelligence.

Re: Artificial Intelligence Software Is Booming, But Why Now?

#106
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, "signs of intelligence" include creativity , pedagogy , ..., and of course, getting bitten by the bug of existential angst. Accept no subsititute.

It seems pretty likely that we will start to see "General AI" discovering problematic things like the unsolvable nature of ethics questions, the ungroundedness of truth claims, the immense silliness of religions and ideologies, etc. Which might be a good thing. Terrifying visions of AI are all about certainty and the authoritarianism it creates. If existential depression is a mental friction from the lack of certaint…

The encounter with doubt need not be a terminal state. If it is indeed "intelligent", it may proceed to enlightenment.

Re: Artificial Intelligence Software Is Booming, But Why Now?

#107
post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't buy that. Spiders can't beat a human at Go. Sure, they weren't evolved to do that. But how many generations of selective breeding do you think it would take to evolve a spider that could beat the best humans at go? Whereas if you made a spider hunting video game, I bet researchers could train AI's that could beat it within a few months. Video game playing has actually become a big area of research recently an…

I agree that mastering board games requires intelligence. I also agree that good chess players are usually intelligent, even quite smart. But it's not like people's abilities in chess are directly proportional to their intelligence, is it? I mean, you would probably have mediocre chess players that could beat Plato or Darwin or Einstein. Why is it that computers' abilities to win chess or Go are seen as the proxy for…

There is no such thing as a universal intelligence test. I'm not claiming that winning at Go implies intelligence. I'm simply demonstrating that spiders aren't generally intelligent. They can't learn to do things other than what they were programmed to do. Whereas ANNs can do a wide variety of tasks, including tasks no animals are remotely capable of.

Re: Artificial Intelligence Software Is Booming, But Why Now?

#108

Date Approximate cost per GFLOPS inflation adjusted to 2013 US dollars --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1961 $8.3 trillion 1984 $42,780,000 1997 $42,000 April 2000 $1,300 May 2000 $836 August 2003 $100 August 2007 $52 March 2011 $1.80 August 2012 $0.73 June 2013 $0.22 November 2013 $0.16 December 2013 $0.12 January 2015 $0.06

Just as important is global data available to train the AI. According to this we're at 10+ Zetabytes versus https://media.licdn.com/mpr/mpr/p/3/005/078/00c/0745630.jpg

This should not be overlooked.

From 1960 to 2000, AI was "brute force" goal and optimization problems. Having mountains of data for anything you want turns it into a "dumb but accurate" pattern matching problem.

Re: Artificial Intelligence Software Is Booming, But Why Now?

#109

I'm still not comfortable calling the thing that is booming "artificial intelligence". It is mostly pattern recognition and classification. Intelligence is something else.

The term AI has been used too much and has lost its meaning. When you mean "real AI", you have to refer to it as AGI.

Re: Artificial Intelligence Software Is Booming, But Why Now?

#110

Because it's been just about 10 years since they figured out how to: 1) Use convolutional layers, ReLUs, and a few other tricks to ameliorate the vanishing gradient problem, 2) Perform continuous, high-dimensional stochastic gradient descent on graphics cards, and 3) Apply these things via stochastic grad-student descent to sufficiently massive datasets that even the most brute-force models and training methods (back…

Convolutional layers have been around longer than that and don't have much to do with the vanishing gradient problem, which was never that big a problem to begin with. ReLUs are helpful, but they do not lead to THAT big of a speedup. Convolutional layers have definitely had a big impact for accuracy in image problems and sound problems. I think #2 is very important; they speed up both training and evaluation by a fac…

>Convolutional layers have been around longer than that and don't have much to do with the vanishing gradient problem, which was never that big a problem to begin with. ReLUs are helpful, but they do not lead to THAT big of a speedup. Convolutional layers have definitely had a big impact for accuracy in image problems and sound problems.

They're essentially an informed prior on image and sound problems, which vastly reduces the size of the parameter space and thus makes both vanishing gradient and overfitting less of a problem.

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