Why building a startup is probably your most sensible career path • Hacker News Board

Re: Why building a startup is probably your most sensible career path

#101

Post by shoyer » Wed, Sep 14, 2016, 9:37 PM UTC

> Later stage investment is increasingly focused on science > > Even five years ago it was incredibly hard to get funding for science-based ventures...

This seems wrong to me.

This may be true for consumer facing products or tech investors like YC, but it misses that biotech investors have been investing $1B+/quarter into science based startups for over a decade now [1]. I suspect that as far as absolute numbers go traditional biotech investing still dominates in this space.

[1] http://www.forbes.com/sites/brucebooth/2015/07/23/the-ventur...

Re: Why building a startup is probably your most sensible career path

#102

Post by WalterSear » Wed, Sep 14, 2016, 9:39 PM UTC

monkmartinez wrote: post #94

biounit wrote: post #88

Interesting perspective. Certainly get a good feel for your potential before striking out on a startup. And have as much savings as possible. I did the PhD and while doing my Postdoc I started a company. I did many years as Research Professor before quitting and focusing on my company. Comparing the two situations I'd argue the business option is far better for a number of reasons. The most important being freedom. T…

Does a startup have? Proposals and Stress = Check low success rates and intense competition = Check Need for sales = Check I can't help but think you essentially have the same situation in academia as one has in a startup, only "it's different." The difference to me is the illusion of control. One may think that they are in control of the startup vs. the bureaucracy of government/academia/established business. I posi…

>low success rates and intense competition = Check

Not as low or intense as academia IME :(

Re: Why building a startup is probably your most sensible career path

#103

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Sep 14, 2016, 9:42 PM UTC

jondubois wrote: post #46

mikebenfield wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Writing a 100 page thesis is not hard work either. Maybe don't belittle things you've never done? Doing a PhD is not just sitting down and writing a thesis, and it's also not just taking a few classes that occasionally require late nights. A PhD student is typically teaching one or more classes, learning as much as possible about his/her field, reading papers at the forefront of research in his/her field, conductin…

It's interesting how people are calibrated differently it comes to measuring 'hard work'. The difficult thing about startups is that the correlation between hard work and success isn't very strong. It might be the case that a PhD is very hard. My idea of it is just based on third-party observation and discussions with people who have done it. I suppose some people have a harder time than others. I worked on two open…

[deleted]

Re: Why building a startup is probably your most sensible career path

#104

Post by mattkrause » Wed, Sep 14, 2016, 9:42 PM UTC

jondubois wrote: post #46

mikebenfield wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Writing a 100 page thesis is not hard work either. Maybe don't belittle things you've never done? Doing a PhD is not just sitting down and writing a thesis, and it's also not just taking a few classes that occasionally require late nights. A PhD student is typically teaching one or more classes, learning as much as possible about his/her field, reading papers at the forefront of research in his/her field, conductin…

It's interesting how people are calibrated differently it comes to measuring 'hard work'. The difficult thing about startups is that the correlation between hard work and success isn't very strong. It might be the case that a PhD is very hard. My idea of it is just based on third-party observation and discussions with people who have done it. I suppose some people have a harder time than others. I worked on two open…

For what it's worth, I don't think you're a lazy entitled millennial. I do think that you may not understand what doing a PhD involves.

People find academic careers hard for a lot of the same reasons that startups are difficult: there's no clear roadmap for moving forward, tons of hard work is necessary but definitely not sufficient for success, and although you have frustratingly little control over outcomes, it feels like all of your 'eggs' are trapped in one basket.

Re: Why building a startup is probably your most sensible career path

#105

Post by monkmartinez » Wed, Sep 14, 2016, 9:42 PM UTC

biounit wrote: post #99

monkmartinez wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does a startup have? Proposals and Stress = Check low success rates and intense competition = Check Need for sales = Check I can't help but think you essentially have the same situation in academia as one has in a startup, only "it's different." The difference to me is the illusion of control. One may think that they are in control of the startup vs. the bureaucracy of government/academia/established business. I posi…

"It's different" is a big deal. In academics, if you're research oriented, your success is 90% or more based on your ability to bring $ in the institution. If your research field is on an upswing - novel, deemed important, hot with the funding agencies - you're good. It extremely challenging when things turn. Pivot is virtually impossible, especially before tenure. I'd argue that with business you don't necessary hav…

Despite what SV wants the world to believe, business success is 100% based on how much money you can bring to your business/company as compared to the cost to operate said business/company.

I see your point and concede that if you have research in an area with no funding, you are most likely dead in the water.

I don't see how that is any different than a business. The simple fact remains that you have no control over what is going to be "hot" and what is going to be "dead." How many times can you afford to be wrong? That is the ultimate question, isn't it?

Re: Why building a startup is probably your most sensible career path

#106

Post by wott » Wed, Sep 14, 2016, 9:52 PM UTC

beachstartup wrote: post #86

cderwin wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Out of pure curiosity, what makes you think that someone on hn is more likely to be successful running a startup than anyone else?

because they/we are more likely to have worked at one, and see how it actually works, or doesn't work. same goes for any high stress, high risk business, like running a restaurant. if you've worked in one for years, you're more likely to succeed in running one yourself. there is a running joke in the restaurant business about rich semi-retired professionals opening up a restaurant and failing miserably, because they…

> because they/we are more likely to have worked at one, and see how it actually works, or doesn't work.

They were talking about building a startup right after a PhD.

Re: Why building a startup is probably your most sensible career path

#107

Post by pipio21 » Wed, Sep 14, 2016, 9:57 PM UTC

monkmartinez wrote: post #94

biounit wrote: post #88

Interesting perspective. Certainly get a good feel for your potential before striking out on a startup. And have as much savings as possible. I did the PhD and while doing my Postdoc I started a company. I did many years as Research Professor before quitting and focusing on my company. Comparing the two situations I'd argue the business option is far better for a number of reasons. The most important being freedom. T…

Does a startup have? Proposals and Stress = Check low success rates and intense competition = Check Need for sales = Check I can't help but think you essentially have the same situation in academia as one has in a startup, only "it's different." The difference to me is the illusion of control. One may think that they are in control of the startup vs. the bureaucracy of government/academia/established business. I posi…

This is like saying that Leo Messy scoring goals is luck.

As a business owner that meets other business owners every day I believe "luck" is not that important.

There is a lot of space for normal business in the world, that solves a problem, give a service or creates simple products. You can be good at it or not. Most successful owners I know are not lucky at all.

Luck applies to the "changing the wold" thing, but 99% of business are not that way. People at HN has a distorted view on that reality.

Re: Why building a startup is probably your most sensible career path

#108

Post by amyjess » Wed, Sep 14, 2016, 9:57 PM UTC

brightball wrote: post #81

pb wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many of the most successful founders are introverts. Mark Zuckerberg, Larry Page, Bill Gates, none of them are very extroverted, but they've started some of the most valuable companies in the world. Of course if you are so introverted that you are unable to make eye contact or talk to people it will be a problem, but most of us are not that extreme.

I hear things like this about Zuckerberg all the time and he did one singular thing that made Facebook take off more than all of the other social networks that were out there at the time (Classmates, High School Alumni, My Space, etc). He made it exclusive. You had to have a .edu address to sign up so the people ON the network were initially only your peer group. You couldn't get in without that .edu address and ther…

> He made it exclusive. You had to have a .edu address to sign up so the people ON the network were initially only your peer group. You couldn't get in without that .edu address and therefore you WANTED to get in if you couldn't.

Don't forget that each college's network was segregated from each other's.

You couldn't view the full profiles of people at other schools unless you were friends with them, but by default, you could view the full profiles of everyone else at your school (you could set your profile to friends-only, but most people didn't back then). I know that I didn't care that everyone else on my network could see my home address and my phone number on my profile, because I knew that they were all classmates (or professors, but very few of them were on Facebook). After I graduated and networks became less prominent, I locked down my profile to friends-only.

Groups were restricted to single schools (and Pages didn't exist): this kept group sizes small and made them feel cozier. Pretty much every school had a group for most fandoms, and it was a big deal if you were able to be the person who got to create your school's group for your favorite subject. There were a number of groups that were basically memes; I forgot what they all were, but no real discussion happened in the group, and their only value was to be listed on your profile. They were classified as "Facebook Classics", and what would happen was that the meme would take off at one school, then the members' friends at other schools would notice them on their profiles and create versions at their schools, and so on. Again, there was some prestige in being the first person to spread the meme to your school.

And there were some college-specific things on your profile, too. There were fields for your class schedule, and you had a separate "mailbox" field for colleges that had dorms.

Re: Why building a startup is probably your most sensible career path

#109

Post by wolfgke » Wed, Sep 14, 2016, 10:01 PM UTC

fsloth wrote: post #90

gohrt wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you think they are not extroverted? Bill Gates was a famously in-your-face person when dealing with employees, partners, and competitors.

Introvert vs. extrovert has more to do how much energy being with a crowd gives or takes, or do you prefer your own company over that of others if given the chance. Any social skill, unless natural, can be acquired.

> Any social skill, unless natural, can be acquired.

How?

Re: Why building a startup is probably your most sensible career path

#110

Post by ramblenode » Wed, Sep 14, 2016, 10:02 PM UTC

squeaky-clean wrote: post #48

mikebenfield wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Writing a 100 page thesis is not hard work either. Maybe don't belittle things you've never done? Doing a PhD is not just sitting down and writing a thesis, and it's also not just taking a few classes that occasionally require late nights. A PhD student is typically teaching one or more classes, learning as much as possible about his/her field, reading papers at the forefront of research in his/her field, conductin…

I think you're both making different points. Yes, a PhD is a lot of work (I'd assume, haven't got one). Maybe more work than a startup. But it's not "hard" work in the sense that you don't have a 90% chance of your thesis being rejected despite you trying your hardest. You don't have to be scared of Google catching wind of your thesis and publishing a better version before you can finish it. Your advisor doesn't take…

Since so many people here seem to be in the business of peddling cherries, apples, and oranges, I thought I'd throw my own analysis in the mix:

First, the likelihood of earning a PhD shouldn't be viewed as p(graduate) but as p(graduate | admitted) * p(admitted). Once you factor in the high rejection rate of competitive PhD programs, the success rate drops off pretty sharply. Additionally, the applicant pool tends to self-select toward people who at least believe they are minimally qualified because of the time and expense in completing applications and gathering letters of recommendation.

Second, the random error term is much larger in the hypothetical formula for startup success than it is for PhD success--in fact, it's probably much larger than any variable one can control. A consequence of this is that a unit increase of talent/skill/drive will move the needle further toward success in the PhD world than in the startup world. Comparing successful or unsuccessful individuals across worlds tells you very little.

Third, for all the parroting of the "9 in 10 startups fail" statistic, there seems to be almost no work in connecting its relevance. A startup is not a person. A person may found multiple companies in their lifetime. A person only needs to earn a PhD once to be considered a PhD. I could go on, but I think "apples and oranges" is sufficient.