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Many Kenyans refusing basic income experiment

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Re: Many Kenyans refusing basic income experiment

#101

Post by Todd »

ktRolster wrote: post #6
Todd wrote: post #2

This seems like the kind of surprising result that the scientific method begs for. Instead of trying to understand it, or profit from its prevalence, the organization is attempting to reduce it. It doesn't seem likely that this type of thing will be a long term concern, but perhaps something can be learned about how society adapts if a significant subset decline the payment.

or profit from its prevalence, How on earth do you profit from people who won't take money because they think you are a cult/devil?

I meant profit in non-monetary terms, but in terms related to the experiment. When you run an experiment, and you get a result you didn't expect, there may be a new discovery or a silver lining if it's an undesirable discovery.

Re: Many Kenyans refusing basic income experiment

#102

Post by Todd »

ced wrote: post #56
Todd wrote: post #2

This seems like the kind of surprising result that the scientific method begs for. Instead of trying to understand it, or profit from its prevalence, the organization is attempting to reduce it. It doesn't seem likely that this type of thing will be a long term concern, but perhaps something can be learned about how society adapts if a significant subset decline the payment.

From the article: "We've done a lot to try to understand what has led to this increase in refusals," Le wrote in the post. From the blog post: We’ve found that people typically refuse out of skepticism. Potential recipients find it hard to believe that a new organization like GiveDirectly would give roughly a year’s salary in cash, unconditionally. As a result, many people have created their own narratives to explain…

Yes, they've taken pragmatic steps to deal with it, given the current situation. It seems that there may be another aspect to basic income refusal that isn't immediately evident. Perhaps the suspicion that is prevalent here for reasons related to local culture and customs are actually more universal. Maybe there is a way that UBI can be tweaked to accommodate for that. I know that one of the cornerstones of UBI is unconditionality. However, it may need to be adjusted if this is a more universal phenomenon.

Re: Many Kenyans refusing basic income experiment

#103

Post by tpeo »

MarkMc wrote: post #60
semi-extrinsic wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the contrary, there are a large number of examples from e.g. South African shanty towns that if people living in tiny metal shacks with dirt floors get a bit more disposable income, many prefer to stay where they are and buy satellite TV and the latest iPhone rather than save that money to try and move to a better place.

There is a great book on poverty called "Poor Economics" [1] which has a relevant point about why people choose to buy TVs: We asked Oucha Mbarbk, a man we met in a remote village in Morocco, what he would do if he had more money. He said he would buy more food. Then we asked him what he would do if he had even more money. He said he would buy better tasting food. We were starting to feel very bad for him and his fam…

I wonder if TV hinders economic growth and development. In so far as urbanization goes, the story that I was told in Urban Economics was that as farming productivity went up, the opportunity cost of time went down and so people took up other trades in addition to farming. When an hour less of farm work didn't mean starvation anymore, people had the time to sew, bake, build, etc. And over time, things which were probably hobbies developed from cottage industries to actual industries.

What entertainment does is drive the opportunity cost of time back up by increasing the pleasurableness of leisure time. Now, that probably isn't much of an issue for actual underdeveloped countries. I don't think anyone would prefer to sew their own clothes when they can buy perfectly fine ones for a lower price unless they're obsessed with self-reliance, and no one is missing out on these homemade goods either. But in a society where it's plausible that a hobbist might produce some really neat stuff on their own, encouraging passive entertainment might mean some less neat gadgets in the long run.

Re: Many Kenyans refusing basic income experiment

#104

Post by internaut »

PostOnce wrote: post #57
arkades wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As I understand it, this "quote" was provided second-hand decades after it happened, and only after Ehrlichman was no longer in a position to deny its accuracy (read: dead and in the ground). Harpers is probably one of the few places where that sort of thing that could get past editorial scrutiny. (Or, maybe not, maybe I'm just being insufficiently cynical.) And yet between here and reddit, I think I see this pop up…

Even if it turns out to be untrue, what does it say that it sounds so plausible/believable, so many people are quoting it? Either way, it seems people don't have a lot of faith in the government, and there are plausible examples of things the government has done to put itself in this situation. Another example from the same era, gulf of tonkin incident. It doesn't matter what it costs the people at the bottom if the…

> what does it say that it sounds so plausible/believable, so many people are quoting it?

I think you know the answer to this.

There's lots of things I'd like to believe, but don't because they are not true.

Outside of HN and other geek outposts, a great many people, maybe most have a flaky relationship to the truth on almost everything. We're not immune to that of course but I at least know with fellow geeks they will admit the possibility of being wrong instead of relying exclusively on waving their hands and feels. Geeks will change minds when presented with data. Often slowly and grudgingly, but still they are able to do it, it is in them, their identity is looser.

One thing I suspect most of us have very wrong about people is that being 'scientific' is strongly connected to personality, and so appeals to logic and reason are simply not going to resound with everybody in totality. It is not meaningful to them.

The World is my anecdotal evidence for that.

Re: Many Kenyans refusing basic income experiment

#105

Post by TazeTSchnitzel »

dilemma wrote: post #66
TazeTSchnitzel wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What makes you think Le is imagining this?

Where's the substance? What do you know that makes you think it's fact?

The phrasing does not imply it's a hypothetical, so why do you think it's not true? Do you believe they're lying?

Re: Many Kenyans refusing basic income experiment

#106

Post by jomamaxx »

vacri wrote: post #16
jomamaxx wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"to educate the people" It's not 'reading and arithmetic' that's the problem. It's a basic lack of intelligent social organization across the board. It's the thousand little bits of behaviour that make you 'civilized' vis-a-vis other cultures. I'm weary of the using the word 'civilized' because it sounds a little colonialist, but when people turn to 'magic spells' for many things ... you know there really are some de…

> but when people turn to 'magic spells' for many things ... you know there really are some deep issues. All across Europe and North America (especially the US), people regularly turn to magic spells (praying). These are the places that us westerners think of as the primary 'civilised' societies, but 'magic' is commonplace there as well.

"All across Europe and North America (especially the US), people regularly turn to magic spells (praying). "

This is a false equivalence - clearly you do not understand what religion is.

There is no North American who would not accept a lottery winning for fear of 'Black Magic' and would 'pray to win the lottery' as well.

Praying is giving hope, or meditating. Very few people literally believe in prayers.

If you kids cannot grasp how backwards Africa is, you need to visit yourselves.

Re: Many Kenyans refusing basic income experiment

#107

Post by sksnxjis »

dilemma wrote: post #45
rusanu wrote: post #4

I'm speculating and have no evidence, but my thinking is that offering money with no strings attached is a threat to those that offer money (or other help) with strings attached. Spreading rumors would be a defense strategy to protect those interests.

What makes you think there's no strings attached in this case? For one, these Kenyans are being experimented on .

GiveDirectly is an extremely transparent organization and there's nothing secret about the experience of people who have taken money from them in the past. For them to suddenly start demanding organs or labor or votes or whatever it is you are worried about would be way out of character and not in the best interests of the continued existence of the organization. This behavior would not by tolerated by GiveDirectly's unusually high-minded and picky donors.

Re: Many Kenyans refusing basic income experiment

#108

Post by vacri »

jomamaxx wrote: post #106
vacri wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but when people turn to 'magic spells' for many things ... you know there really are some deep issues. All across Europe and North America (especially the US), people regularly turn to magic spells (praying). These are the places that us westerners think of as the primary 'civilised' societies, but 'magic' is commonplace there as well.

"All across Europe and North America (especially the US), people regularly turn to magic spells (praying). " This is a false equivalence - clearly you do not understand what religion is. There is no North American who would not accept a lottery winning for fear of 'Black Magic' and would 'pray to win the lottery' as well. Praying is giving hope, or meditating. Very few people literally believe in prayers. If you kids…

Thanks for the No True Scotsman.

No, there is no North American who would refuse lottery winnings because of black magic because both lotteries are ingrained in the culture; and you have to voluntarily opt-in to a lottery in the first place. Plenty of North Americans would refuse free money from a foreign company with unclear or suspicious motives.

There are, however, droves of North Americans who thing that things like homosexuality is an abomination against god. Or who think that babies are sinful before they draw their first breath, and have to be splashed with water or they'll burn forever in hell (baptism is another magic spell). There are places in the US where you are barred from office if you don't have a religion, which suggests that it's a bit more than merely 'giving hope'.

Also, have you never seen footage of the crazy shit that goes on at faith healing events, or heard of people so wrapped up in their religion that they impoverish themselves in fervor? Sometimes these people do so in the hopes of curing ailments that actual medicine would have worked for. I remember talking to someone who used to be into that stuff, and she said that when it failed to heal you, their excuse was that 'you didn't pray hard enough', which of course just made you feel worse.

Re: Many Kenyans refusing basic income experiment

#109

Post by Normal_gaussian »

Dylan16807 wrote: post #26
Normal_gaussian wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be blunt it shows how out of touch those involved are. Firstly they obviously had very little understanding of African / 3rd world culture, secondly they haven't considered what we do when people offer us free stuff. Consider if somebody walked up to you and offered to pay you 6k/mo, you would be insane not to question it. And in a country where "free stuff" doesn't happen, where corruption and entrapment are comm…

> you would also be insane Your hyperbole really bothers me here.

Yes you are absolutely right. On rereading that I wish I had used more meaningful phrasing.

Re: Many Kenyans refusing basic income experiment

#110

Post by ilaksh »

DavidWanjiru wrote: post #78

"Many Kenyans refusing basic income." I'm not sure how representative this project is. I mean, if someone tried a pilot project in San Antonio, would the results of that project be taken as a representative outcome for Texas or the United States? Remember, this "sampling," such as it is, is different from the kind of sampling they do on opinion polls, why they query a small but representative sample of the population…

I agree on both points. First I think the headline is wrong because this only happened in one area of Kenya rather than reflecting the whole country. Also I think it is almost certain they did not successfully communicate the purpose and context.

Part of the context they might mention, since apparently it was only $30 per month, is the income difference in the United States where even some relatively lower-income individuals can afford to donate that. So to me a program like this could partly be about reducing the overall income inequality between countries. But at least if that income difference (how much money it actually is in rich countries) is part of the explanation it may seem like it is less likely to be an obligation.

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