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Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

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Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#101

Post by mpweiher »

agumonkey wrote: post #31
TillE wrote: post #8

It's really incredible that three months after the vote, we still haven't the slightest idea what post-Brexit UK will look like. Will they go for the EEA (the least destructive option), or will they - as Theresa May threatens - sacrifice everything just to limit immigration? Three months after the biggest decision in decades, and the subject is barely even being talked about seriously in the UK. I don't understand it…

GBP stopped falling though. Dunno if it's because brexit stalled or because the market thinks brexit will be fine.

It stopped falling, for now, but has steadied at a significantly lower level. Don't know how this can be interpreted as markets thinking that brexit will be fine.

It just looks like the market has priced in the current situation, which is worse than before, but doesn't yet know what will happen, because nobody really knows.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#102

Post by microtonal »

tajen wrote: post #64
microtonal wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that it is not in the EU's best interest to give the UK the best possible deal, especially with many populist parties ready to request an exit if the UK deal works out well. The whole process will be immensely complicated: the deal should be bad enough for the UK to instil fear for an exit, but good enough to avoid an economic collapse.

> instill fear Is that how Europe is governed? I think any country should be allowed to leave without condescending comments by anyone. I prefer staying in Europe, but if the majority of my fellows prefer the opposite, then it's democracy. Who are we to judge they are "stupid", "country-side, or "senile", like I've read all across newspapers, or even fascists, like I've heard too? If Europe relies on hating the peopl…

Is that how Europe is governed? I think any country should be allowed to leave without condescending comments by anyone.

I think people can handle condescending comments. The problem is that you cannot reap the benefits without paying dues, which is what the Brexit camp promised. It's in the interest of the remaining EU members to make this clear, or the whole union will crumble. It's likely that this will throw back Europe to nationalism and protectionism, which is counter-productive.

(Europe's history is littered with wars, if we don't want to consider the previous centuries, look no further than former Yugoslavia or Ukraine.)

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#103

Post by m0nty »

wuschel wrote: post #86
m0nty wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It isn't legally binding, and although the Prime Minister said she doesn't intend to consult parliament about it, parliament will still need to repeal the European Communities Act which took us into the EU in the first place. So they could say "no", but I think it unlikely in the current political climate. It is binding in the sense that it's "the will of the people", albeit by a slender margin, and it's kind of tric…

I understand, thanks for elaborating on that matter. In a way, a clean way to do it would to be a call for elections, and a proper mandate - either to stay in, or stay out. But that might not happen, considering the nature of the political game. I agree about the reasons to worry, and to have a proper discussion. Things tend to get out of hand sometimes when it comes to media.

> a clean way to do it would to be a call for elections

Absolutely, but the weakness of the opposition Labour party and the near-annihilation of the Liberal Democrats at the last election mean (as things stand) it's mostly a foregone conclusion that the Conservatives will win. So to their way of looking at things, they will have two mandates to leave.

It's an extraordinary situation, though. I said to my son on the morning the result was announced, this will affect all of us for the rest of our lives. I still don't think I was being hyperbolic. Seasoned politicians and commentators are saying it's our biggest political crisis since WW2 or Suez, and that's even coming from people who seem to support Brexit.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#105

Post by mpweiher »

mattmanser wrote: post #89
martinko wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Valid point, but don't forget that the UK has a much stronger bargaining position than other countries.

This is why I don't buy too much of the rhetoric. The 5th biggest economy in the world is going to be put on the naughty step because its citizens decided enough is enough on mass immigration? I think it'll end up being a lot of hot air while a load of backroom EU face-saving, but ultimately lucrative, trade deals are set up.

(a) The UK is not being put on the "naughty step". It will stop receiving special privileges that are contingent on being a member of the EU, because it wants to leave the EU. This is not punishment, it is a direct consequence of respecting the UK's wishes.

(b) The US is the world's largest national economy (#2 if you count the EU as a single economy) and doesn't have unlimited access, because it isn't part of the EU. China is the world's 2nd larges economy and doesn't have unlimited access, because it isn't part of the EU. Japan is the world's 3rd largest economy and doesn't have unlimited access, because it isn't part of the EU. Germany is the world's 4th largest economy and has unlimited access, because it is part of the EU. ... Malta is the world's 132nd largest economy and has unlimited access, because it is part of the EU.

Can you spot the pattern?

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#106

Post by anonymousDan »

alva wrote: post #74
pliny wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see the hypocrisy here, they're not taking a principled stand in favour of immigration by threatening to boycott the UK if they stop allowing immigrants, they're warning the UK that their business there may be unprofitable if they no longer have access to cheap labour.

The warning itself, over concerns that their investments will suffer is totally fair. The hypocrisy however as I see it is that Japan is asking us to make a specific sacrifice for economic growth, that it absolutely will not do itself on principle.

I think the point is that some brexiteers are going around in lala land claiming that there will be negligible economic consequences to leaving the free trade zone.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#107

Post by kalleboo »

joshvm wrote: post #96
rayiner wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The U.K. already had plenty of government oversight. Why on earth does it need even more from bureaucrats in other countries?

Oversight by whom? I agree that the UK government can be held accountable by the public, probably more so than many countries. However if the government agrees to pass a stupid law, there's very little the public can do about it. Can you provide a specific example of something that you think has been over-regulated by the EU? https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-facts-behind-claims-uk-influe... (I'll take the downvote to m…

> Can you provide a specific example of something that you think has been over-regulated by the EU?

I recall Leavers on Facebook looking forward repealing stifling EU legislation restricting higher-wattage toasters and vacuum cleaners

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#108

Post by kalleboo »

alva wrote: post #62

"With regard to unskilled workers, Japanese businesses rely on inexpensive labour from Eastern Europe in the manufacturing and agricultural industries in the UK" What a hypocritical demand from the Japanese. They have one of the strictest set of immigration policies in the world, largely for the sake of national homogeneity at the expensive of their economy. They believe that is a worthwhile sacrifice for them, why n…

> They have one of the strictest set of immigration policies in the world

[citation needed]

My experience is that Japan has very permissive immigration for skilled labor (anyone with a college degree) or social ties (marriage). Far more so than e.g. the USA or Europe. They just don't have a green card lottery for unskilled labor (like the US) or open borders for refugees (like Europe).

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#109

Post by anonymousDan »

ZenoArrow wrote: post #91
woliveirajr wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't think this was some kind of extortion. More a previous warning, like "don't think that japan is in some retaliation by moving our companies, we just asked about taxes earlier and you didn't care"

It's not like this is pre-Brexit. The decision to leave the EU has already been made. The decision can't be ignored by the British government as it would be political suicide. I'm sure the Japanese government are aware of this. The question is then, why make these statements at all? The only explanation that makes sense to me is opportunism on behalf of Japanese corporations. Threatening to leave gives you bargaining…

Not really, there is still plenty of room for manoeuvre as to what exactly should be prioritised during the brexit negotiations. The Japanese are well within their rights to warn about the potential implications of a hard brexit.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#110

Post by dominotw »

TillE wrote: post #8

It's really incredible that three months after the vote, we still haven't the slightest idea what post-Brexit UK will look like. Will they go for the EEA (the least destructive option), or will they - as Theresa May threatens - sacrifice everything just to limit immigration? Three months after the biggest decision in decades, and the subject is barely even being talked about seriously in the UK. I don't understand it…

There is some early data

  When Economic Doomsayers Stumble: Cautionary Tales From Brexit, Grexit and U.S. Budget Battles
http://www.wsj.com/articles/forecasts-of-brexit-gloom-may-be...
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