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A Scenario Where Brexit Does Not Actually Happen

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Re: A Scenario Where Brexit Does Not Actually Happen

#101

Post by IsaacL »

peteretep wrote: post #97
IsaacL wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's quite clear that Boris did not want the referendum to win. It's not clear to me. I think you are taking it as self-evident that Leave is a bad idea. In the mainstream narrative, the EU is associated with everything nice and international and the only reason to be against it is if you're a crazy old-fashioned nationalist. There's a classical liberal case for Brexit, though, which Gove articulated reasonably wel…

> I think you are taking it as > self-evident that Leave is a > bad idea Yeah. Me, every economist, the markets, almost all centrist politicians, Obama, people who are highly educated, etc It's funny to watch Leavers complain that people think they're racist, with all their great arguments about common fisheries, not being able to depot Abu-bin-whoever, and whatever other weird non-issue is flavour of the day, not to…

> every economist

Most but not all. Economics is currently split into multiple schools which disagree on philosophical fundamentals, and is hardly an exact science. How many economists predicted the financial crisis? Those that did tend to be small government advocates. (I don't endorse everything he says, but Nassim Taleb is one example, who is also pro-Brexit).

I wish someone had made this point during the campaign, to answer the snipes that Leave was anti-intellectual, anti-expert, and so on.

Re: A Scenario Where Brexit Does Not Actually Happen

#102

Post by acjohnson55 »

danieltillett wrote: post #34
mtgx wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Speaking of which, isn't it about damn time UK got its own Constitution?

The Uk has a constitution, it is just unwritten.

Well, it's called that, but it might be more accurate to say that it is written in the form of hundreds of years of legislation, treaties, and judicial decisions, just not compiled into a single document. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitution_of_the_United_Kin....

Re: A Scenario Where Brexit Does Not Actually Happen

#103

Post by speeder »

I am not much close to UK politics.

But doesn't UKIP have a rising popularity right now?

If neither of the two traditional parties want to lead Brexit, would not this just result in UKIP volunteering and asking the population to back them in the next parliament elections?

Re: A Scenario Where Brexit Does Not Actually Happen

#104

Post by ScottBurson »

IsaacL wrote: post #101
peteretep wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think you are taking it as > self-evident that Leave is a > bad idea Yeah. Me, every economist, the markets, almost all centrist politicians, Obama, people who are highly educated, etc It's funny to watch Leavers complain that people think they're racist, with all their great arguments about common fisheries, not being able to depot Abu-bin-whoever, and whatever other weird non-issue is flavour of the day, not to…

> every economist Most but not all. Economics is currently split into multiple schools which disagree on philosophical fundamentals, and is hardly an exact science. How many economists predicted the financial crisis? Those that did tend to be small government advocates. (I don't endorse everything he says, but Nassim Taleb is one example, who is also pro-Brexit). I wish someone had made this point during the campaign…

> Nassim Taleb is [...] also pro-Brexit

He just wants all these puts he's been buying to be worth something [0].

[0] http://www.businessinsider.com/nassim-talebs-universa-invest...

Re: A Scenario Where Brexit Does Not Actually Happen

#105

Post by brownbat »

peteretep wrote: post #97
IsaacL wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's quite clear that Boris did not want the referendum to win. It's not clear to me. I think you are taking it as self-evident that Leave is a bad idea. In the mainstream narrative, the EU is associated with everything nice and international and the only reason to be against it is if you're a crazy old-fashioned nationalist. There's a classical liberal case for Brexit, though, which Gove articulated reasonably wel…

> I think you are taking it as > self-evident that Leave is a > bad idea Yeah. Me, every economist, the markets, almost all centrist politicians, Obama, people who are highly educated, etc It's funny to watch Leavers complain that people think they're racist, with all their great arguments about common fisheries, not being able to depot Abu-bin-whoever, and whatever other weird non-issue is flavour of the day, not to…

You can support common markets while still raising an eyebrow at some of Brussel's decisions.

France is trying to prevent Americans from publishing true facts in the states, because misguided Frenchmen might accidentally seek such facts out and read them.[0]

Also, it's not altogether clear that any good long term compromise has been found to balance the needs of the strong economies alongside the more fragile ones.

You staved off Grexit, but retained the powderkeg of local fiscal policy with central responsibility for solvency of members.

Now, if I were in the UK, I probably would have seen these as secondary issues to the value of the common market. But worrying about concentrated power doesn't seem alien to me. And given the UK and EU are both in the WTO and so culturally related, it's not like I'd fear both sides will instantly revert to quotas, 1000% tariffs, and random visa denials.

Ok, ok, academic leavery aside, the mainstream leave does seem related to immigration, and that's troubling even if leave could be justified on other grounds. Nate Silver had a comment on the 538 podcast, something like, "We hold up liberal democracy as the pinnacle of governance, but it seems to have a systemic problem with immigration." That seems troubling, and I'm not sure entirely what to make of it yet.

[0] http://www.voanews.com/content/google-appeals-french-order-f...

Re: A Scenario Where Brexit Does Not Actually Happen

#106

Post by chrispadfield »

YeGoblynQueenne wrote: post #59
GunboatDiplomat wrote: post #7

So... does anyone really think any democratic government would be so crazy as to totally discard the results of a referendum they called?

What does it matter what the UK unilaterally decides to do, anymore? The rest of the EU has declared, in no uncertain terms and at the highest possible level that they want the UK out as soon as possible. The president of the European Community has said so, the president of the European parliament has said so, the foreign ministers of the EU's six founding members have said so. Their primary motivator btw is that the…

Because EU treaty is quite specific. It's not possible to expel a member. A member may choose to invoke Article 50 to start a process to leave at a timing of their choice. The UK has had a referendum which Parliament must now consider whether to offer up a bill giving the PM of the day authority to invoke Article 50, which in turn must gain royal ascent. This process is quite clear and EU politicians/diplomats opinion on the timeframe is frankly irrelevant.

Of course there is negotiating benefit for the UK to delay invoking Article 50; and it's no surprise the UK will delay the process given the difficulty the UK will face once the 2 year count down starts. The EU has the right to refuse negotiation prior to Article 50 - and that's the game of chicken we now find ourselves in.

Re: A Scenario Where Brexit Does Not Actually Happen

#107

Post by kbob »

nazgob wrote: post #93
alva wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Scotland is all but certain to leave." Not a certainty at all, especially if new EU membership involves taking the Euro. There is a reason Sturgeon has not yet called the vote, they know that EU joining terms are likely to be very ugly for Scotland at this time. She first has to convince the EU to give them extremely exceptional rules (or legal challenge so Scotland isn't necessarily leaving then joining). Your stat…

The Euro thing is kinda false. Yes, new countries have to adopt Euro but there is no deadline and no penalty. They only have to promise to do it someday. That is why some countries don't have it and will no have for many years.

But Scotland doesn't have its own legacy currency. There's no need/excuse for a phase out period.

Re: A Scenario Where Brexit Does Not Actually Happen

#108

Post by gaviscon »

pi-err wrote: post #70

There's a much better and simpler explanation to the 4-months delay. As shown in Cameron's [white paper on Brexit from last February]( https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachm... ), the critical part of the exit process is to buy more than 2 years to define the new relationship (article 50 has basically only this period as a hard fact). The paper does bold that a realistic timeline would be ~10 ye…

Would you be able to expand on how the tech industry could benefit from Brexit? - Not questioning your point, I would just like to hear more about this point of view
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