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How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

rameznaam.com

101–110 of 197 posts

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#101

When you buy a car in the US, most of what you pay for is fancy molded plastic and attractive sheet metal work, cleverly organized by the manufacturer into trim level "tiers" intended to create maximum perceived value. The package is then financed or leased with incentive financing and the sights are set on getting you to replace it after 2-4 years whether it needs to be replaced or not. I think a 6 passenger mini-va…

This isn't really possible to produce a sub $8k, even with an "open" platform.

The reason I know this is because the VW Minibus, which was engineered in the 40s has been sold in Brazil from 1953-2013 with very little change. Want to know how much a brand new van designed 60 years ago would cost you? $18,000 USD.

That's a vehicle whose engineering and equipment was paid for decades ago, that received numerous exemptions to tightening safety and emission standards and could be produced in a region with cheap labor. It was also the cheapest vehicle of its kind on the Brazilian market.

Super cheap cars like the Versa are really only possible because Nissan figured out how to build value without making money. The $11k stripper model is a good for marketing (i.e., inflated fuel economy #; generates interest in the low price, even if they aren't viable), money can be made on the back-end (financing), lowers lease residuals, it can be used to keep factories at full capacity, and helps negotiate lower prices with suppliers.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#102

When you buy a car in the US, most of what you pay for is fancy molded plastic and attractive sheet metal work, cleverly organized by the manufacturer into trim level "tiers" intended to create maximum perceived value. The package is then financed or leased with incentive financing and the sights are set on getting you to replace it after 2-4 years whether it needs to be replaced or not. I think a 6 passenger mini-va…

Sadly, safety regulations make what you're asking for nearly impossible in the 'Land of the Free'...

Sure, things like crumple zones are cheap because they're just metal and space, but regulation never stops. Mandatory tire pressure monitors, mandatory backup cameras (and no, your smartphone screen won't suffice for that requirement, must be fixed in the cockpit), mandatory LATCH, mandatory airbags, ABS, etc etc etc.

And that's just the list of things that have to be in a car today or in the near future. Regulations never shrink, so expect collision warning, lane departure warning, collision avoidance, etc to all be mandatory in vehicles in the span of time it would take you to develop one or two generations of your minivan...

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#103

I confidently predict, in my lifetime, - Nearly all cars will be electric. - Nearly all cars will be self driving. - Nearly all cars will be Uber, or something like it. - Exceptions to the above will be owned by the same sort of people who currently own Ford model Ts. They will be lovingly maintained, proudly exhibited, and illegal to drive on the public highway.

>illegal to drive on the public highway.

Model T's are not illegal to drive today... And you've got a lot more public sentiment to overcome and a LOT more cars to replace than you think if you believe all of this will happen in the next 50 years.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#105

I confidently predict, in my lifetime, - Nearly all cars will be electric. - Nearly all cars will be self driving. - Nearly all cars will be Uber, or something like it. - Exceptions to the above will be owned by the same sort of people who currently own Ford model Ts. They will be lovingly maintained, proudly exhibited, and illegal to drive on the public highway.

> illegal to drive on the public highway.

Highly unlikely in the US. States will gladly take your money in the form of registration and consumption taxes associated with driving old cars. They've already paid for all the infrastructure, so they might as well maximize their returns.

Though, some European nations might. Not the UK or Germany, but Denmark/Belgium could.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#106
post #28

So you get an electric model of the same car. It costs about double. Even if fuel prices double/triple, you can easy fill up at least for 10 years off the difference. Now, ask yourself how often do you replace your car. :)

The question is what is the lifespan of the car, and the total cost of ownership over that period, not how long a single person owns a car.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#107
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like the size = safety is fallacious. Size can equal safety, but its not a guarantee. Sure I would not want to get hit by a 3 ton lifted SUV with ranch style bumpers on it. I would feel that way even if what I were driving was a 3 ton suv with the same bumpers. There was an NHTSA video a few years back of a modern chevy impala hitting a 1959 impala and the much larger 59 getting demolished, while the new one h…

The thing 'size' gets you is crumple zones. A bigger vehicle has a lot more material that can be engineered to deform and absorb the energy of the impact, spreading the deceleration over a longer period of time. A small car can be designed to prevent intrusion into the passenger compartment, but it can't do anything about the g-forces of the collision (which can seriously ruin your day...).

Yup, it's important to note that with Electric Vehicles you get more crumple zone too, which is partly why Tesla has such a high safety rating.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#108
post #43
post #13

A car sharing service in Milan, Italy, is using small two seater electric cars from China. Prompted by this article I finally investigated and found them at http://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/China-eec-l7e-80-elect... They're quoted with a maximum price of $8000. They're definitely made for driving inside a city. Not very good suspensions (don't drive too fast on cobble stones) but good torque (easily beats a gas…

I feel like the size = safety is fallacious. Size can equal safety, but its not a guarantee. Sure I would not want to get hit by a 3 ton lifted SUV with ranch style bumpers on it. I would feel that way even if what I were driving was a 3 ton suv with the same bumpers. There was an NHTSA video a few years back of a modern chevy impala hitting a 1959 impala and the much larger 59 getting demolished, while the new one h…

I understand your point that modern vehicles are relatively safe, but after seeing the result of a semi truck taking out a pickup truck on the Interstate yesterday I am seriously considering my choice to drive a compact vehicle. I assume larger vehicles have larger/longer crumple zones compared to compact vehicles and that higher vehicles have less chance of going under other vehicles? Of course it's zero sum if everyone drives larger vehicles but I can't force the local authorities to invest in better public transportation so I don't even need to drive to work.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#109

A cheap used economy car will still have the lowest cost per mile for a very long time.... When you factor purchase price into the equation gas vehicles win by a long ways since you need X years of EV economy cars on the market before you can get an X year old used EV. EV's will need to fill the same market segment as today's Chevy Aveos and Toyota Yarii (plural of Yaris?) for a decade or more before they're competit…

>>TD;DR, EVs will be cheaper soon the same way cars will all be driving themselves next year.

A used Nissan Leaf can had TODAY for around $10K in the USA. You can have a used Mistu imiev for as little as $7K. Yes there are limitations of range - but if some one is looking for a standard commuter, these fit the bill.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#110
post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You assume a constant price for gasoline, which is a bold assumption, given that the oil markets are currently gyrating wildly, and have been for some time - we're likely to see prices at the pump go up by orders of magnitude over a relatively short timescale, which will provide a big push towards EV adoption, and will drive people away from older vehicles which guzzle gas. No, it isn't going to be overnight, but lik…

Gotta call BS. Gas in my area is currently $2/gal. I think it's highly unlikely to go up "orders of magnitude" in a short timescale, unless you're intentionally using weasel words. There's plenty of oil around, wells are being capped due to oversupply/drop in demand.

Agree. And in inflation adjusted dollars, gasoline is about as cheap as it's ever been.
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