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How Cheap Can Solar Get?

rameznaam.com

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Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#101

Post by mikeash »

joshuapants wrote: post #48
RamezNaam wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Two things have happened in this area recently. 1. The grams of rare earths required per watt of solar have been dropping steadily. And Solar PV panels with no rare earths at all have been developed, though they are not yet common. 2. "Rare earths" are not so rare. Their prices have tumbled substantially as new mines have opened up and substitutes have been found.

> 2. "Rare earths" are not so rare. Their prices have tumbled substantially as new mines have opened up and substitutes have been found. Yes, but mining them is an environmental disaster.

Can you quantify that? I'm seeing comments in this thread saying, over and over again, that manufacturing these things is an environmental disaster. But without numbers, the statement is meaningless. We are currently poisoning pretty much the entire planet for our energy needs. If we cut that down to, say, poisoning an area the size of Texas for our energy needs, that would be a massive win.

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#102

Post by mikeash »

nroets wrote: post #17
RamezNaam wrote: post #7

Hi. I'm the author of this blog post. Happy to answer questions people have, as time allows, on Wednesday. Upcoming posts will look at the future of wind power, the future of energy storage, and what the missing pieces are. If you don't want to wait, you can read my thoughts on energy storage here: http://rameznaam.com/2015/04/14/energy-storage-about-to-get-...

IIRC all the efficient solar cells we currently have contains some rare materials. Once a particular solar technology reaches grid parity, the demand for the relevant rare material will increase, placing a floor under the price of that solar cell. In the case of Moore's Law, a transistor can be any size. By contrast, solar cells absorbs too little energy if they are too thin. TL;DR: There are real physical limitation…

Who cares about efficiency or size?

I mean that seriously. Right now, pretty much all that matters is cost per watt. For normal terrestrial uses, a 20% efficient cell loses out to a 5% efficient cell that's 10x cheaper. (Numbers made up on the fly with no particular basis.) We're not currently hurting for space for these things, and sunlight is free.

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#103

Post by hwstar »

I have a 1kW solar panel battery storage system which I use to power my computers and servers. I installed it a couple of years ago to help mitigate the $0.37 kWh top tier rate that SDG&E charges.

In California, a minimum charge was introduced and will be $10.00 starting in 2016. I suspect that this charge will be jacked up in increments till it is a significant fraction of the monthly bill.

If this does indeed play out, then the only option will be solar with localized energy storage, and disconnect completely from the grid.

California also will be flattening the rate curve at the Utility companies request to combat solar installations in the next 1-2 years. Users in the first tier will be paying more, the other tiers will be combined into one and be at a lower rate than the current top tier. In 2019 there is a plan to move everyone to time of use pricing. Once time of use is mandated, it may be too expensive to remain connected to the grid.

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#104

Post by Daishiman »

joshuapants wrote: post #48
RamezNaam wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Two things have happened in this area recently. 1. The grams of rare earths required per watt of solar have been dropping steadily. And Solar PV panels with no rare earths at all have been developed, though they are not yet common. 2. "Rare earths" are not so rare. Their prices have tumbled substantially as new mines have opened up and substitutes have been found.

> 2. "Rare earths" are not so rare. Their prices have tumbled substantially as new mines have opened up and substitutes have been found. Yes, but mining them is an environmental disaster.

Humanity is an environmental disaster. The issue at stake is avoiding the worse evils right now so that we can continue to lead a somewhat prosperous existence which, with some hope, will eventually become sustainable.

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#105

Post by LurkingPresence »

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #93
fpgaminer wrote: post #9

If I could install solar today I would, regardless of cost (apartment living prevents it). That may sound crazy, but I theorize that when you consider externalities the cost of grid electricity already far exceeds the cost of solar. It's going to cost humanity a whole lot of money to both survive and fix the damage we're dealing to the environment today. I'd rather pay more now for solar, than pay through the nose la…

In many places you can pay extra to get your electricity from less carbon intensive generation sources without actually changing anything in your home, it may be worth looking into if you feel strongly about the issue. In the UK Co-operative energy and Ecotricity are two that I'm aware of. The other thing you can do is invest in a "community solar garden" project, which basically means you pay for the panels, and get…

In the US you can use http://www.arcadiapower.com/, it doesn't cover everywhere but it's a nice start!

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#106

Post by silverthorn »

1971genocide wrote: post #2

Does anyone know methods for hackers to help and learn more about solar ? It it possible for the mathematically trained to easily immerse and innovate in the industry ? It it possible to manufacture solar cells "in your garage" so to speak ?

As the article notes, module technology and module costs are no longer the most significant barrier to solar adoption---so if you're in software, the greatest opportunities to have significant impact are probably in tearing down the numerous _other_ barriers to widespread adoption.

To use the situation I'm most familiar with: there are hundreds of millions of people in emerging economies who live off-grid and spend tens of billions of dollars annually on expensive fuel-based energy. They'll switch to solar tomorrow if we [1] can solve the problem of upfront financing [2]. It's the same problem that SolarCity, Sunrun, et al. are tackling in the US. This problem is the kind that gets solved by, among other things, developing the same kind of enterprise-targeted mobile/web/backend/data systems familiar to any developer at a modern SaaS company (but targeting a different, unusually interesting and important market, with some unique challenges).

[1] https://careers.stackoverflow.com/company/angaza/

[2] http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/selling-ener...

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#107

Post by davegardner »

breischl wrote: post #92
ssmoot wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not qualified to answer either way. But my grandfather worked at a coal fired plant. I've been to the strip mine. I've seen the trains that run continuously to truck it in. From a layman's perspective it seems like an incredibly efficient process. Is there any chemical refinement going on at all? All that I saw looked mechanical (but I was very young). I would guess that it would take many years of Solar before i…

Deciduous trees on the south side of your house are great for energy efficiency. The shade reduces summer cooling costs, and then the leaves drop so you get solar heat in the winter. You should definitely think about it carefully before cutting them down to install solar panels.

Unless you live in the southern hemisphere, in which case you want to plant them on the north side of your house. On a somewhat related note, rooftop solar panels have also been shown to have good insulation benefits[1]. [1] http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0038092X11...

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#108

Post by RealityVoid »

hwstar wrote: post #103

I have a 1kW solar panel battery storage system which I use to power my computers and servers. I installed it a couple of years ago to help mitigate the $0.37 kWh top tier rate that SDG&E charges. In California, a minimum charge was introduced and will be $10.00 starting in 2016. I suspect that this charge will be jacked up in increments till it is a significant fraction of the monthly bill. If this does indeed play…

What you're saying does not make sense from the utilities point of view. Why, if they have superior competition, would they make themselves more uncompetitive?

Besides, centralized energy systems have certain advantages that household operations do not have. Maybe even better ones will arrive once solar becomes more accessible. SO it makes sense that they will stay at least as competitive as off-grid systems.

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#109

Post by tired_man »

hwstar wrote: post #103

I have a 1kW solar panel battery storage system which I use to power my computers and servers. I installed it a couple of years ago to help mitigate the $0.37 kWh top tier rate that SDG&E charges. In California, a minimum charge was introduced and will be $10.00 starting in 2016. I suspect that this charge will be jacked up in increments till it is a significant fraction of the monthly bill. If this does indeed play…

That's San Diego Graft and Extortion you're talking about, right?

This movement is going to put the skids under the home solar company's pitch that you'll be able to feed electricity back and sell it to the power companies.

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#110

Post by breischl »

davegardner wrote: post #107
breischl wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Deciduous trees on the south side of your house are great for energy efficiency. The shade reduces summer cooling costs, and then the leaves drop so you get solar heat in the winter. You should definitely think about it carefully before cutting them down to install solar panels.

Unless you live in the southern hemisphere, in which case you want to plant them on the north side of your house. On a somewhat related note, rooftop solar panels have also been shown to have good insulation benefits[1]. [1] http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0038092X11...

True, you want the trees and panels on whichever side of the house is sunniest.

Since the GP was talking about "trees shading the south side of my roof" I'm guessing that he's in the northern hemisphere. Or maybe he's just really bad at siting solar panels, but I was giving him the benefit of the doubt. :)

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