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China’s Troubling Robot Revolution

nytimes.com

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Re: China’s Troubling Robot Revolution

#11

Post by jqm »

nugget wrote: post #3

If you think structural unemployment due to automation will be a problem in the US, just wait until 500 million Chinese factory workers are put out of work. A generation ago they may have been content to remain in poverty and ignorance but now, like the sans-culottes of 18th century Paris, they know what else is out there. There's a reason many wealthy Chinese desperately want to expatriate and it's not because they…

Maybe they will follow the lead of the US and create more positions in things like HR, Insurance Sales and Law. Or an ever expanding cadre of mid-level managers with the main job of playing politics against each other. If this isn't enough to attain full employment, they can then create a large number of professional meeting attender positions and mandate companies hold many more meetings.

Re: China’s Troubling Robot Revolution

#12

Post by harigov »

DickingAround wrote: post #2

It's going to be really weird if China's ruling 'socialist' party ends up being forced to become an actual neo-socialism with things like a guaranteed stipend because there are not enough actual jobs to do... This whole automation revolution has really just begun to highlight the old problem that many people don't own any of the things that generate the fabulous, effort-free wealth. But now instead of people missing…

The body/mind they expected to be able to rent out has literally no value as an asset.

Agreed. I wonder if the concept of job makes sense anymore.

Re: China’s Troubling Robot Revolution

#13

Post by Chathamization »

functional_test wrote: post #6
bduerst wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China has had a rising middle class for a while now, and just like with the agricultural automation brought on by the combustion engine, their manufacturing laborers will shift into service, skilled, technical, and professional positions.

Did you actually read the article? Here's the most relevant quote: > The reality, however, is that China has struggled to create enough white-collar jobs for its soaring population of college graduates. In mid-2013, the Chinese government revealed that only about half of the country’s current crop of college graduates had been able to find jobs, while more than 20 percent of the previous year’s graduates remained une…

I imagine displaced blue-collar workers are looking for jobs in areas quite a bit different from displaced college-educated white-collar workers. The problem with the job market facing college graduates seeking white-collar jobs seems to be a different issues from one of automation of factories.

Just like how in the US, the problems faced by liberal arts majors struggling to find work is going to be quite different from that of factory workers who lost their jobs when the production moved overseas.

Re: China’s Troubling Robot Revolution

#14

Post by [deleted] »

functional_test wrote: post #6
bduerst wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China has had a rising middle class for a while now, and just like with the agricultural automation brought on by the combustion engine, their manufacturing laborers will shift into service, skilled, technical, and professional positions.

Did you actually read the article? Here's the most relevant quote: > The reality, however, is that China has struggled to create enough white-collar jobs for its soaring population of college graduates. In mid-2013, the Chinese government revealed that only about half of the country’s current crop of college graduates had been able to find jobs, while more than 20 percent of the previous year’s graduates remained une…

[deleted]

Re: China’s Troubling Robot Revolution

#15

Post by angrow »

harigov wrote: post #9
functional_test wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did you actually read the article? Here's the most relevant quote: > The reality, however, is that China has struggled to create enough white-collar jobs for its soaring population of college graduates. In mid-2013, the Chinese government revealed that only about half of the country’s current crop of college graduates had been able to find jobs, while more than 20 percent of the previous year’s graduates remained une…

The keyword there is "white-collar" jobs. What parent was talking about includes other jobs.

> service, skilled, technical, and professional positions. > "white-collar" jobs

Are those the two groups of jobs you meant? I don't see the distinction between them...

Re: China’s Troubling Robot Revolution

#16

Post by bduerst »

angrow wrote: post #15
harigov wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The keyword there is "white-collar" jobs. What parent was talking about includes other jobs.

> service, skilled, technical, and professional positions. > "white-collar" jobs Are those the two groups of jobs you meant? I don't see the distinction between them...

Services and skilled trades are not traditionally white collar jobs. Professional are.

Re: China’s Troubling Robot Revolution

#17

Post by mc32 »

As I mentioned once before, one can only hope they can figure a way out of this conundrum. Given the relative strength of the central gov't to direct economic policy, perhaps they'll trike upon a solution to automation and software eating jobs and thus people's source of making a living.

They are going to hit this economic obstacle on a massive scale first --before the jobs even get to migrate to the interior where there are masses of impoverished and underemployed or underproductive workers.

Japan has not been able to age out of this problem, that's to say they have not figured a way to transfer the wealth generated by automation into the general population, so you get older people doing redundant jobs or menial jobs. In other words there isn't an "automation fund" which diverts wealth to the underemployed and those whose jobs have become redundant an unnecessary.

So perhaps the solution is something akin to the Alaska Permanent Fund fund; however, instead of being funded by mineral wealth, gets funded by wealth generated through (hw) automation and efficiencies brought on by software. This fund then gets redistributed based on a combination of need as well as a per-capita flat rate.

Re: China’s Troubling Robot Revolution

#18

Post by bduerst »

functional_test wrote: post #6
bduerst wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China has had a rising middle class for a while now, and just like with the agricultural automation brought on by the combustion engine, their manufacturing laborers will shift into service, skilled, technical, and professional positions.

Did you actually read the article? Here's the most relevant quote: > The reality, however, is that China has struggled to create enough white-collar jobs for its soaring population of college graduates. In mid-2013, the Chinese government revealed that only about half of the country’s current crop of college graduates had been able to find jobs, while more than 20 percent of the previous year’s graduates remained une…

That's in part due to China's recent expansion into higher education, which the article ignores. Also, the services and skilled trades are not traditionally college-graduate jobs.

Re: China’s Troubling Robot Revolution

#20

Post by victorhooi »

crdb wrote: post #7
nugget wrote: post #3

If you think structural unemployment due to automation will be a problem in the US, just wait until 500 million Chinese factory workers are put out of work. A generation ago they may have been content to remain in poverty and ignorance but now, like the sans-culottes of 18th century Paris, they know what else is out there. There's a reason many wealthy Chinese desperately want to expatriate and it's not because they…

The factory workers are as unlikely to be "out of work" as the female population post-the power loom replacing their daily work as thread spinners. Manufacturing is already moving out of China and into cheaper countries. No economy is truly a zero sum game and China is no different. In 2 generations - even if there are some troubled waters in between - these factory workers' children will be white collar workers or e…

Have you taken a look at Japan recently?

They've been in recently for over a decade - probably close to 20 years now. As in, their economy has been going backwards, and shrinking.

That, and they also have deep-seated structural problems (e.g. aging population, incredibly high-saving rates with little spending - might be "good" for individuals, but not good for the overall economy is everybody does it/)

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