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Burn rate says little about whether a startup is on track

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Re: Burn rate says little about whether a startup is on track

#11
High burn rates serve VC interests. Not surprisingly this article was written by a VC. High burn rates make companies desperate for more cash on worse terms, diluting founders equity and control. High burn rates also indicate the company is shooting for the moon. VCs want unicorns, not just successful companies. They don't want your careful 100M exit of which you own 30%. They want a billion plus exit of which you own 5%. The former is far easier to achieve and most companies aiming for the latter burn out.

So basically, this article is entirely self serving. Surprise surprise. Listen at your own peril.

Re: Burn rate says little about whether a startup is on track

#12

I disagree with the article because so many of these "unicorns" (yet another term underlining the neoteny and magical thinking of the Valley) aren't building the future. Building the future can pay off at VC-acceptable levels in the long term, but does not consist of huge-in-four-years-or-dead gambits. It's true that, in the Valley, burn rate doesn't much matter. Your one job as a VC-funded startup CEO is to keep inv…

Sorry for focusing on a sidenote, but this connection of neoteny and Valley culture piqued my interest. Do you know if there has been anything good written on the subject?

Re: Burn rate says little about whether a startup is on track

#13
The author of the post - partner at an investment vehicle that invests in startups - severely damages the credibility of this post to me. Burn rate may not be something VC's care a ton about, in fact, one of the most common complaints I've heard about raising too much money is that the investors pressure you to spend it faster than you want or need to. For the startup, however, burn is one of the most important numbers to care about, since it determines how long you can live before needing to either raise more money or become profitable (or at least cash-flow positive).

Re: Burn rate says little about whether a startup is on track

#14
post #10

In the first dot-com boom, many companies went public before they were profitable. Since you can only go public once, they had a finite amount of capital and a publicly known burn rate. Projecting that linearly allowed computing the company's death date. I had a site which did this.[1] It was surprisingly accurate. I used to get hate mail from CFOs. Excessive burn rate led to the demise of basically good ideas such a…

It's somewhat amusing that Amazon is on the list with a death date of July 10, 2001. How were Amazon ultimately saved before that point?

Re: Burn rate says little about whether a startup is on track

#16

I disagree with the article because so many of these "unicorns" (yet another term underlining the neoteny and magical thinking of the Valley) aren't building the future. Building the future can pay off at VC-acceptable levels in the long term, but does not consist of huge-in-four-years-or-dead gambits. It's true that, in the Valley, burn rate doesn't much matter. Your one job as a VC-funded startup CEO is to keep inv…

I am not sure why you get downvoted so much for common sense polite opinions ...

Re: Burn rate says little about whether a startup is on track

#17
I stopped reading when he said something about simple algebra proving his point, and then posted some nonsensical equation that involved the concept of "milestones per month" or something like that.

For those of us that lived through the first round of internet/investor blowhards and shady math[1] this style of article is depressingly familiar.

Although at least now when I read this kind of nonsense no trees are killed in its delivery, so we've got that going for us.

[1] http://www.amazon.com/Dow-36-000-Strategy-Profiting/dp/06098...

Re: Burn rate says little about whether a startup is on track

#18
post #2

Paulg's recent tweet sums up the response to this [1]: > If you're expanding too fast, don't count on your board to warn you. As VCs, kill-or-cure strategies serve their interests. VCs like high burn rate companies, because they are beholden to VCs. So in the case that it does work out, the VCs will own a large percentage of the company. If you are founding a company and hope for the company to be successful and gene…

i completely agree - and the article clearly fails to make a point of this

Re: Burn rate says little about whether a startup is on track

#19
post #14
post #10

In the first dot-com boom, many companies went public before they were profitable. Since you can only go public once, they had a finite amount of capital and a publicly known burn rate. Projecting that linearly allowed computing the company's death date. I had a site which did this.[1] It was surprisingly accurate. I used to get hate mail from CFOs. Excessive burn rate led to the demise of basically good ideas such a…

It's somewhat amusing that Amazon is on the list with a death date of July 10, 2001. How were Amazon ultimately saved before that point?

Revenue growth, presumably. If you linearly extrapolate cash/burnrate, but revenue grows exponentially and eventually makes burn rate positive, then the prediction will be off.

It occurs to me that a lot of this bubble-like behavior may come from an initial market leader obscuring what they're actually doing and then lots of followers jumping on. Amazon was profitable on a unit-sold basis from Day 1, even before taking investment, but they invested all the profits back into capital improvements for the business, which made it look like they were hemorrhaging large amounts of money. Investors and other startups saw this and their success and thought "The way to succeed in the dot-com era is to burn lots of money!", completely overlooking that Amazon had validated their business model beforehand and showed it to be profitable, and then only expanded afterwards.

I believe that the trend toward "Just get lots of users, and the money will follow!" in the mid-2000s had a similar origin. People saw the Google founders say "We didn't know how we were going to make money when we started", it worked out for them, and so they all started businesses where they had no idea how to make money. I'm about 98% sure that the Google founders had maybe a dozen ideas about how to make money at the time they incorporated, they just needed to test them (so their statement was technically true), and it was highly likely that at least one would work out.

Re: Burn rate says little about whether a startup is on track

#20

I disagree with the article because so many of these "unicorns" (yet another term underlining the neoteny and magical thinking of the Valley) aren't building the future. Building the future can pay off at VC-acceptable levels in the long term, but does not consist of huge-in-four-years-or-dead gambits. It's true that, in the Valley, burn rate doesn't much matter. Your one job as a VC-funded startup CEO is to keep inv…

Today I learned the word "neoteny" to my delight. It's very well used in your comment by the way.
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