A buddy who is an excellent reverse engineer assures me that this isn't a conspiracy. Crypto services had to be verified by a key; the NSA's crypto services were classified, so they couldn't let Microsoft sign them; therefore, they needed their own key. The key is only used to authenticate crypto services, which I think Douglas Adams would describe as Mostly Harmless.
I don't have the reverse engineering skills/IDA Pro license to verify this, but fwiw I trust and respect this person's skills.
But lets do a thought experiment.
1. How much would the NSA gain from pressuring Microsoft into backdooring (or as they say, "enabling") Windows, in terms of systems they could not access before that they can access now?
2. How much would it cost the NSA, in terms of effort, good will, and exposure to risk by the people at Microsoft who would know about the backdoor and may leak or abuse it? How bad would it be if the public got wind of it? How hard would it be to keep it secret over the years, especially as engineers moved around to other companies? Would they have to involve foreign nationals on the dev team? Could they be trusted not to warn their governments?
3. How many times could they abuse their backdoor before it was obvious Windows couldn't be trusted? When/if that happened, what would be the damage to the US economy, and to their ability to penetrate systems?
When I put myself in the shoes of DIRNSA and ask myself these questions, backdooring Windows (at least through official channels, like _NSAKEY supposedly is) seems like an insane proposition.