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What Jeff Wise has learned about MH370 since 2/23

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Re: What Jeff Wise has learned about MH370 since 2/23

#11

Post by atroyn »

nl wrote: post #6

Assuming this theory is wrong (and I assume it is) it is interesting to consider why it has become so popular. Firstly, there is no compelling counter-theory. The consensus view (the plane turned off its flight path for an unknown reason, flew in a mostly unknown direction for an unknown period of time and then crashed somewhere in the Indian ocean) has so many thing that are unknown that any theory offering certaint…

I like to think it's become popular because people have a hard time accepting that we can just 'lose' a plane in our era.

The incident runs counter to the carefully managed, or at least well understood framing that people apply to the world at large through their lived experience, so seeking a 'human' explanation is somehow more comforting.

Re: What Jeff Wise has learned about MH370 since 2/23

#12

Post by girvo »

AmVess wrote: post #5

He's a cross-eyed lunatic. There's no conspiracy on the part of Russia involving the disappearance of this aircraft. People had a rough idea where Air France Flight 447 was when it went down, and it still took them two years to find it. No one has even a faint idea of where MH370 crashed, making the chances of finding it at all very, very, slim. The ocean is a shockingly massive place which is a fact that Wise would…

Oh come now, claiming he is mentally ill takes a little far. Do I think his theory is prima facie ridiculous? Of course, but everyone gets a little wound up thinking about something very hard for a long period of time.

Re: What Jeff Wise has learned about MH370 since 2/23

#13

Post by meric »

atroyn wrote: post #11
nl wrote: post #6

Assuming this theory is wrong (and I assume it is) it is interesting to consider why it has become so popular. Firstly, there is no compelling counter-theory. The consensus view (the plane turned off its flight path for an unknown reason, flew in a mostly unknown direction for an unknown period of time and then crashed somewhere in the Indian ocean) has so many thing that are unknown that any theory offering certaint…

I like to think it's become popular because people have a hard time accepting that we can just 'lose' a plane in our era. The incident runs counter to the carefully managed, or at least well understood framing that people apply to the world at large through their lived experience, so seeking a 'human' explanation is somehow more comforting.

The frame: There's an app to find your lost $1000 iphone, how can you lose a $100m plane?

Re: What Jeff Wise has learned about MH370 since 2/23

#14

Post by zzleeper »

grecy wrote: post #10

I had never read before that it was known the plane did a 180, but the Malaysian government denied for a week (why would they deny it..) And then the plane was on a zigzag course and traveling fast. So we don't know what happened, but based on that alone it seems like something fishy. [1] http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/02/jeff-wise-mh370...

I remember the reason given at the time. The capabilities of your military radars are mostly a secret, and by revealing that they were able to spot the airplane so far away, they were telling a lot of information to the other regional powers.

Re: What Jeff Wise has learned about MH370 since 2/23

#15

Post by atroyn »

meric wrote: post #13
atroyn wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I like to think it's become popular because people have a hard time accepting that we can just 'lose' a plane in our era. The incident runs counter to the carefully managed, or at least well understood framing that people apply to the world at large through their lived experience, so seeking a 'human' explanation is somehow more comforting.

The frame: There's an app to find your lost $1000 iphone, how can you lose a $100m plane?

Exactly. Even people who fly a lot (like me) are in the confines of what feels like a very controlled system. If I can get three connecting flights across two continents with only two hours of layover, how can we just lose a plane?

It's easy to forget the world is really big, and that technology does break.

Re: What Jeff Wise has learned about MH370 since 2/23

#16

Post by smsm42 »

grecy wrote: post #10

I had never read before that it was known the plane did a 180, but the Malaysian government denied for a week (why would they deny it..) And then the plane was on a zigzag course and traveling fast. So we don't know what happened, but based on that alone it seems like something fishy. [1] http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/02/jeff-wise-mh370...

For most governments, where lying does not come at a very high premium, the first instinct is to not tell the truth, but the information that appears to be the most beneficial at the moment. Knowing the truth is an advantage, why give it to others if one can avoid it without any major repercussions? So, one should not make a very far reaching conclusions from a government official lying - it doesn't necessarily mean they were involved in some conspiracy, they may just been routinely lying to not reveal something that has no relation to the case in point, such as something that may paint somebody in unfavorable light, or some minor secret of totally unrelated nature.

Additionally, when criminal wrongdoing is suspected, the authorities routinely lie about what they know about the case, in hopes that the criminals would operate under wrong model of their knowledge and thus be at disadvantage, and also they would be able to distinguish somebody genuinely knowing something about the matter from somebody just watching the news.

Re: What Jeff Wise has learned about MH370 since 2/23

#17

Post by dingaling »

powertower wrote: post #8
nl wrote: post #6

Assuming this theory is wrong (and I assume it is) it is interesting to consider why it has become so popular. Firstly, there is no compelling counter-theory. The consensus view (the plane turned off its flight path for an unknown reason, flew in a mostly unknown direction for an unknown period of time and then crashed somewhere in the Indian ocean) has so many thing that are unknown that any theory offering certaint…

Theory A) Putin had 3 Russian Spetsnaz hijack the plane, kill all the passengers on board, and navigated to an abandoned space launch and landing facility, so in a year or two it could be loaded up with explosives and used in a first-strike terrorist attack against the USA. Theory B) Plane crashed at unexpected location in ocean that covers 3/4 of earth surface. I know which one the media outlets that are booking thi…

Given that used 777-200s are fairly cheap and common on the leasing market, Theory A key seems an utterly Bond Villanesque way of obtaining an airframe.

You'd have to reprogram its transponder and slap-on a coat of paint anyhow, so why not just hire one from ILFC through a couple of proxy companies? Much easier and less risky. Operate it on routine 'cargo' services until needed...

Re: What Jeff Wise has learned about MH370 since 2/23

#18

Post by r721 »

grecy wrote: post #10

I had never read before that it was known the plane did a 180, but the Malaysian government denied for a week (why would they deny it..) And then the plane was on a zigzag course and traveling fast. So we don't know what happened, but based on that alone it seems like something fishy. [1] http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/02/jeff-wise-mh370...

There was a huge discussion of that article on HN:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9098501

Re: What Jeff Wise has learned about MH370 since 2/23

#19

Post by nl »

grecy wrote: post #10

I had never read before that it was known the plane did a 180, but the Malaysian government denied for a week (why would they deny it..) And then the plane was on a zigzag course and traveling fast. So we don't know what happened, but based on that alone it seems like something fishy. [1] http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/02/jeff-wise-mh370...

The whole investigation is a complete disaster because no one has a clue what happened.

That means that everytime someone said what they thought happened and it turned out to be wrong it looks like a conspiracy. People denied things because they said something different earlier, and they didn't want to appear wrong.

It's fairly likely that foul play on the aircraft itself was involved, but it's pretty unlikely that there was a multiple-government coverup involving Malaysia, China and Australia.

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