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Why the Euro will ultimately fail

maximise.dk

11–20 of 28 posts

Re: Why the Euro will ultimately fail

#11
I'm not familiar with the study mentionned, but i don't understand why, in theory, the southern states couldn't lower salaries to have productivity gains ( since pay raises have been the major reason for the loss in the first place).

Re: Why the Euro will ultimately fail

#12
post #11

I'm not familiar with the study mentionned, but i don't understand why, in theory, the southern states couldn't lower salaries to have productivity gains ( since pay raises have been the major reason for the loss in the first place).

Sure 380 euro netto is still too high as minimum wage, these HH folks!!

Re: Why the Euro will ultimately fail

#13
There's another much simpler option: Greece can go bankrupt, default on it's loans, and start over without the burden of unrealistic debt keeping them in poverty. It can remain in the Euro and everyone can move forward more - perhaps with more prudent lending standards.

Yes, some investors will lose that money. They were happy cashing their cheques when things were going well. Investing is a business with a risk of loss.

Re: Why the Euro will ultimately fail

#14
post #11

I'm not familiar with the study mentionned, but i don't understand why, in theory, the southern states couldn't lower salaries to have productivity gains ( since pay raises have been the major reason for the loss in the first place).

The salaries are very low already.

Also, there's more to productivity than salary levels. You also need to factor in education, experience, access to capital (for tools and machines), infrastructure, proximity with suppliers ot clients, administrative overhead, etc. At least part of that will need to get funding (ideally by the EU).

Re: Why the Euro will ultimately fail

#15
post #11

I'm not familiar with the study mentionned, but i don't understand why, in theory, the southern states couldn't lower salaries to have productivity gains ( since pay raises have been the major reason for the loss in the first place).

In theory, that would work and solve the problem. In practice, downward nominal wage rigidity is a thing.

http://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2013/10/nominal-wage-rigid...

(note especially the ludicrous 27% "natural rate" of unemployment for Spain predicted by standard economic models cited there)

Ordinarily the problem would be solved by de-valuing the currency against the more competitive economies' currencies, but with the Euro that's not possible.

So the best way in practice would be for the more competitive economies to incur some inflation, say 5%, for several of years so that the less competitive ones can stay at Unfortunately this is politically impossible in the Euro zone today, hence we have 25% unemployment in southern countries.

Re: Why the Euro will ultimately fail

#16

There's another much simpler option: Greece can go bankrupt, default on it's loans, and start over without the burden of unrealistic debt keeping them in poverty. It can remain in the Euro and everyone can move forward more - perhaps with more prudent lending standards. Yes, some investors will lose that money. They were happy cashing their cheques when things were going well. Investing is a business with a risk of l…

Forgive me for being blunt, but I get the impression that you knew what comment you'd make before you read the article.

The article suggests the problem is systemic. Even if Greece goes bankrupt but stays in the Euro, the core issues have not been solved and the situation will arise again. In a race between efficiency and diversity, the Euro is systematically predisposed towards efficiency (which reduces the scope for diversity), and the economic controls that have historically protected diversity have been removed, therefore either diversity is lost (member nations lose control of their fiscal policy) or the Euro is abandoned.

That is what the article suggests. What is your response to that?

Re: Why the Euro will ultimately fail

#17
There is so much hyprocrisy in this article as well as in the comments who try to analyze the situation. Just by searching Google, you could find that labor costs in most Northern countries is much higher than in South:

Hourly Wages in Europe http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/...

Euro, was created as a means to loot other countries of their resources and their sovereignty. Period.

Re: Why the Euro will ultimately fail

#18
post #17

There is so much hyprocrisy in this article as well as in the comments who try to analyze the situation. Just by searching Google, you could find that labor costs in most Northern countries is much higher than in South: Hourly Wages in Europe http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/... Euro, was created as a means to loot other countries of their resources and their sovereignty. Period.

Paul Graig Roberts exlains what is going to happen to Lithuania who joined the Euro: http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2015/02/10/lithuania-media-i...

"...by accepting the euro, your government accepted a loss of sovereignty. You cannot be a sovereign state if you don’t have your own money. If you don’t have your own money, you can’t finance your own government. So this is all the trouble that we see in Greece, in Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Italy. These are governments that are not sovereign, because they don’t have their own money and therefore they cannot finance themselves, they have to rely on foreign private banks to finance them and their creditors are more powerful than the governments and so when the countries have difficulty paying, the creditors may impose austerity on them and loot the countries; Greece is being looted. How do you loot a country? You tell them their pensions have to be cut, their employment has to be cut, social services have to be cut, so that there’s money to pay the banks...."

Re: Why the Euro will ultimately fail

#19
post #11

I'm not familiar with the study mentionned, but i don't understand why, in theory, the southern states couldn't lower salaries to have productivity gains ( since pay raises have been the major reason for the loss in the first place).

In theory, that would work and solve the problem. In practice, downward nominal wage rigidity is a thing. http://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2013/10/nominal-wage-rigid... (note especially the ludicrous 27% "natural rate" of unemployment for Spain predicted by standard economic models cited there) Ordinarily the problem would be solved by de-valuing the currency against the more competitive economies' currencies, but w…

i just realized another big difference between the traditional devaluation/inflation solution and the wage reduction :

In the first case, savings and capital in general are affected as well, whereas in the second only workers are.

So i guess wage reduction would restore competitivity but would also increase the inequality in the country dramaticaly (unless you dramaticaly increase the taxes on higher revenues and on savings as well).

Another thing is that if a country changes its currency to be able to devaluate, you can be pretty sure that all the savings will immediately leave the country's bank and convert to stronger currencies.

I guess every solution is a bad one.

Re: Why the Euro will ultimately fail

#20
And then the Spaniard carpenter go out wearing some extra furs and chase some dinosaurs for dinner, END.

> Because the Spanish workers aren’t as good as the German at optimising chair-making

> This is not necessarily because the spanish workers are lazy

Oh, thanks, thanks. You are so kind... Except that the spanish workers are not lazy at all (you can find some lazy workers here, and in Germany of course) this is what the troika and little friends want you to think for fun and scamfit. They had called us even the PIGS countries... Portugal Greece, Spain, Italy... ready for sacrifice, "they merit this, they are lazy, stupid, living la vida loca with our money"...

> There’s just one problem. Those damned voters

Yeah, the bastards that we had looted are soo unpredictable that now they don't want to vote us again... this is what they call it democracy I think, stupid democracy...

This article is just propaganda repeating the same dated ideas. Spanish workers can buy the machines they need and the materials they need. We don't live in the XIII siecle. And just for the record, spreading the picture of a spanish (or greek) carpenter sitting under a fig tree working exclusively on "olive wood" is so silly that can not be casual.

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