11–20 of 39 posts
"Mr. Tao informed the audience that the capital flight from China in December alone amounted to $20 billion, and that was just from official channels. The true amount could be four times greater." So this bureaucrat just committed career suicide by admitting this.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> I smell bubble. Canada is one of the last-men-standing as far as housing bubbles. Toronto is also bad. Calgary is heading for trouble now that oil has crashed. It could get interesting.
Australia and Canada are very similar. Both continued with a housing bubble well after all other Western markets collapsed. Both also supplied the raw materials that fuel China's economy; an economy that didn't slow down very much while the rest of the West suffered. But now they're clearly takings some of the heat out of their economy. Australia and Canada will feel that.
The Chinese people I talk to in my neighbourhood all talk of Canada and Australia as more "stable" than the UK, China or the US. I'm not surprised. If all you have to go on are news reports, the US and UK don't come off well.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
China's bubble has already burst. Their real estate market will continue to fall indefinitely. Their record debt accumulation will continue until they burst at the seams, while they try to keep the fake growth going. Australia will trend down with China's weakening demand for resources. They're directly pegged to China's well being. Canada will trend down (or up) with oil. If oil is $30-$60, Canada will have to tight…
The typical vancouverite response (annoying) is "oh but our prices will never fall, we live on the best god damn city in the planet, just look at all this foreign demand for our real estate, we are in a bubble you say, you eggheads have been crying about it for the past 15 years and look it hasn't happened so it never will, this time it's different " "this time it's different" - japanese real estate bubble. "we are i…
I took my dog to the dog beach this morning. Sunny and 12* ABOVE. We had one day of snow this year. And the "wet coast" is really a myth. Seattle gets rain, but Vancouver is tucked behind Vancouver Island and is much drier.
In all seriousness, the real estate market is driven by people with money, the investor class. They are older and do not necessarily work, or they work internationally and can park their families anywhere they want. So Vancouver, being Canadian but without Canadian winters, is something different. I think Toronto will burst long before Vancouver.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
China's bubble has already burst. Their real estate market will continue to fall indefinitely. Their record debt accumulation will continue until they burst at the seams, while they try to keep the fake growth going. Australia will trend down with China's weakening demand for resources. They're directly pegged to China's well being. Canada will trend down (or up) with oil. If oil is $30-$60, Canada will have to tight…
The typical vancouverite response (annoying) is "oh but our prices will never fall, we live on the best god damn city in the planet, just look at all this foreign demand for our real estate, we are in a bubble you say, you eggheads have been crying about it for the past 15 years and look it hasn't happened so it never will, this time it's different " "this time it's different" - japanese real estate bubble. "we are i…
This a problem in first tier cities even in the US. It's not only the IPO crowd driving up prices in SF, NYC, etc. But these foreign investors --the IPO people get the flack from displaced communities, but foreign investment contributes its own good share of this new housing shortage... It's begun to affect second tier cities like Minneapolis, Austin, etc.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Australia and Canada are very similar. Both continued with a housing bubble well after all other Western markets collapsed. Both also supplied the raw materials that fuel China's economy; an economy that didn't slow down very much while the rest of the West suffered. But now they're clearly takings some of the heat out of their economy. Australia and Canada will feel that.
but just when will this bubble burst and are there any metrics or signs we can find that have suggested the bursting of subprime mortgage debts in 2008?
In Canada, units for sales have already tripled in Calgary, while actual sales have decreased. Housing prices have dropped 5%.
It might be the start or it might take longer, but it will happen.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
China's bubble has already burst. Their real estate market will continue to fall indefinitely. Their record debt accumulation will continue until they burst at the seams, while they try to keep the fake growth going. Australia will trend down with China's weakening demand for resources. They're directly pegged to China's well being. Canada will trend down (or up) with oil. If oil is $30-$60, Canada will have to tight…
The typical vancouverite response (annoying) is "oh but our prices will never fall, we live on the best god damn city in the planet, just look at all this foreign demand for our real estate, we are in a bubble you say, you eggheads have been crying about it for the past 15 years and look it hasn't happened so it never will, this time it's different " "this time it's different" - japanese real estate bubble. "we are i…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
but just when will this bubble burst and are there any metrics or signs we can find that have suggested the bursting of subprime mortgage debts in 2008?
China's bubble has already burst. Their real estate market will continue to fall indefinitely. Their record debt accumulation will continue until they burst at the seams, while they try to keep the fake growth going. Australia will trend down with China's weakening demand for resources. They're directly pegged to China's well being. Canada will trend down (or up) with oil. If oil is $30-$60, Canada will have to tight…