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Be lucky - it's an easy skill to learn

telegraph.co.uk

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Re: Be lucky - it's an easy skill to learn

#11

Post by BrandonM »

codexon wrote: post #7

He has convolved luck with happiness. If someone believes he is happy, he is happy. If someone believes he is the lucky, he is not necessarily lucky. Seeing the world rose colored glasses does not make you any luckier, it makes you happier. By only asking for those that self-identified as lucky or unlucky, he has failed to isolate the variable of happiness. Here is an excerpt from the book which points out the author…

I disagree; I think he is just using a slightly different definition of luck than you are. Luck is not simply a matter of "defying the odds" or getting the better end of coinflips more often. It's also about opportunities. I think the article did a nice job of examining how "lucky" people are often more fortunate largely because they give themselves more chances to be lucky.

The point about perception of luck being self-perpetuating is good as well. If you view yourself as unlucky, you will tend to be more timid in situations where you might need a little luck to succeed, while a lucky individual will be willing to take more chances.

This dynamic is very visible in poker... After a run of bad luck, it's very easy to miss an opportunity to do something like play a drawing hand aggressively to make a player fold (I don't want to get the money in and lose, again!), instead taking a more passive, less successful route (I'll call the flop... of course, I missed again and don't have odds to continue, now I have to fold.).

Re: Be lucky - it's an easy skill to learn

#13

Post by codexon »

BrandonM wrote: post #11
codexon wrote: post #7

He has convolved luck with happiness. If someone believes he is happy, he is happy. If someone believes he is the lucky, he is not necessarily lucky. Seeing the world rose colored glasses does not make you any luckier, it makes you happier. By only asking for those that self-identified as lucky or unlucky, he has failed to isolate the variable of happiness. Here is an excerpt from the book which points out the author…

I disagree; I think he is just using a slightly different definition of luck than you are. Luck is not simply a matter of "defying the odds" or getting the better end of coinflips more often. It's also about opportunities. I think the article did a nice job of examining how "lucky" people are often more fortunate largely because they give themselves more chances to be lucky. The point about perception of luck being s…

Again, being willing to take risks for greater gain doesn't make you luckier.

In the case of poker, it might be smarter to pretend to play aggressively after a losing streak, but at this point, you are using reverse psychology and you are playing smarter, NOT luckier.

Ever heard of the overaggressive guy that failed a business or died in a stunt? No, of course not. You only hear the success stories which make it seem like the answer to life is aggressiveness.

Re: Be lucky - it's an easy skill to learn

#17

Post by swombat »

I saw a TV version of this article quite a while ago, and like JacobAldridge I have used it a number of times in conversations about luck.

It certainly makes sense to me. You make your own luck by being more aware of things going on around you, so that you can spot opportunities that others might miss. Observing my own life, I feel that a lot of my "luck" has come from an ability to leap onto opportunities that others might have hesitated about for months - this despite the fact that I have a natural tendency to delay and be extremely conservative.

So my view is, if I can overcome this risk-averseness and take on opportunities that I'd normally be scared of, surely others can too. It's extremely hard to convince self-styled unlucky people of this, though. Perhaps I'm just bad at persuading them.

Re: Be lucky - it's an easy skill to learn

#18

Post by btilly »

codexon wrote: post #13
BrandonM wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree; I think he is just using a slightly different definition of luck than you are. Luck is not simply a matter of "defying the odds" or getting the better end of coinflips more often. It's also about opportunities. I think the article did a nice job of examining how "lucky" people are often more fortunate largely because they give themselves more chances to be lucky. The point about perception of luck being s…

Again, being willing to take risks for greater gain doesn't make you luckier. In the case of poker, it might be smarter to pretend to play aggressively after a losing streak, but at this point, you are using reverse psychology and you are playing smarter, NOT luckier. Ever heard of the overaggressive guy that failed a business or died in a stunt? No, of course not. You only hear the success stories which make it seem…

Re-read the article. The people who considered themselves "lucky" turned out to be more observant, and therefore would encounter unexpected opportunities. The people who considered themselves "unlucky" would miss glaring opportunities that should have been staring them in the face. If opportunities keep on dropping in your lap but not in others, after a while you're likely to feel lucky. If opportunities keep on not dropping in your lap while they do in others, after a while you're likely to feel unlucky. Objectively you just don't understand the source of your consistent fortune. But that is how it will feel.

It isn't about risks or risk-taking at all. It is about better observation leading to noticing and taking advantage of opportunities. What is the risk in being given an offer to easily make 250 British pounds? The unlucky people didn't even see it! (The lucky people presumably would have noticed that, but didn't because they noticed that the second page gave them the answer they were looking for so they didn't read the rest of the paper.)

He then figured out some of the factors that lead to the improved observation rate, and found that he could teach "luckiness" as a skill. Of course you aren't going to actually be lucky if you learn that skill. But if you have it you'll have more opportunities to take advantage of. And that's pretty worthwhile.

Re: Be lucky - it's an easy skill to learn

#19

Post by codexon »

btilly wrote: post #18
codexon wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Again, being willing to take risks for greater gain doesn't make you luckier. In the case of poker, it might be smarter to pretend to play aggressively after a losing streak, but at this point, you are using reverse psychology and you are playing smarter, NOT luckier. Ever heard of the overaggressive guy that failed a business or died in a stunt? No, of course not. You only hear the success stories which make it seem…

Re-read the article. The people who considered themselves "lucky" turned out to be more observant, and therefore would encounter unexpected opportunities. The people who considered themselves "unlucky" would miss glaring opportunities that should have been staring them in the face. If opportunities keep on dropping in your lap but not in others, after a while you're likely to feel lucky. If opportunities keep on not…

That is easily an artifact of verification bias.

There was no effort in trying to introduce events that would be negative if aggressively pursued such as a Nigerian 411 or lottery scam. You certainly aren't lucky if you noticed one of these and decided it was a nice opportunity.

Re: Be lucky - it's an easy skill to learn

#20

Post by 10ren »

Tunnel vision is caused by stress. It also represents the worldview that all-you-see is all-there-is. It's a kind of solipsism. What makes what you see so significant? Literally, it is true that you can only observe from your point of view; and that you are always at the center of your horizons. So it's an understandable mistake to make.

But to appreciate the unknown requires humility - it's not just that you don't know the answers, but that you do not know the question; cannot even conceive of the question. It's a door being unlocked, where you didn't even know there was a doorway.

When the student is ready, the teacher will appear. It's not that the teacher arrives, but that we are surrounded by teachers at all times, and we can only see them when we are ready. That's when they appear.

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