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The demise of the dollar

independent.co.uk

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Re: The demise of the dollar

#11

Post by warfangle »

jeromec wrote: post #10
Perceval wrote: post #3

It's an interesting threat, and one that we're going to have to keep out eye on. But I have reservations about how effective multinational cooperation on international monetary policy can be. One of the reasons that the dollar is the global reserve currency is because there is so much of it in circulation. No other currency is as liquid. Moving oil purchases of a bloc of countries to a non-dollar basket of currencies…

Great insights, but I think we have to do more than keep our eye on it. I think it's imperative that we transition significantly to non-oil based energy consumption (as the Obama administration is encouraging). The problem is we've allowed ourselves to become too dependent on spending, accounting for 70% of our economy. Americans have become accustomed to cheap products, and gas, while at the same time turning a nose…

I wish we would make things again. I really do. There's so much tech that can be invested in to make a cleaner, more beautiful America - and yet all the factories for it are going overseas (Germany, Taiwan, and so forth). Why are we so far behind on the high-tech manufacturing curve? Did we just rest on our laurels for too long, or is something more nefarious afoot?

Re: The demise of the dollar

#12

Post by anigbrowl »

Fisk has a bit of a chip on his shoulder. I think he's a fantastic reporter, but I'm little skeptical of his analytical abilities. Of course, he has earned the right to be cynical, but in his editorial pieces it's sometimes hard to tell if he's watching or wishing.

The flaw in the theory here is that the US basically guarantees Europe's military security and so there's a tradeoff with our economic security. This is one reason that the US, while occasionally grumbling about the huge cost of maintaining a nuclear umbrella, makes few moves to encourage any kind of pan-European security force.

Re: The demise of the dollar

#13

Post by prat »

cr0tus wrote: post #6
prat wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"China's inevitable slowdown" - what is the basis of that prediction?

oh thats an easy call. even as we speak they are engaged in a stimulus program every bit as strange as our own and even stranger - their banks are FORCED to make loans! the pressure to keep the growth machine going in china has been immense...but nothing grows to the sky, particularly in a global recession. the chinese will learn the hard way, as we are, not to fight economic cycles. its not an issue of when china wi…

I agree - the question always IS when and not whether:) slowdown has a non-zero probability and will happen - the nontrivial part is predicting whether in a decade or five?

Re: The demise of the dollar

#14

Post by jeromec »

warfangle wrote: post #11
jeromec wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Great insights, but I think we have to do more than keep our eye on it. I think it's imperative that we transition significantly to non-oil based energy consumption (as the Obama administration is encouraging). The problem is we've allowed ourselves to become too dependent on spending, accounting for 70% of our economy. Americans have become accustomed to cheap products, and gas, while at the same time turning a nose…

I wish we would make things again. I really do. There's so much tech that can be invested in to make a cleaner, more beautiful America - and yet all the factories for it are going overseas (Germany, Taiwan, and so forth). Why are we so far behind on the high-tech manufacturing curve? Did we just rest on our laurels for too long, or is something more nefarious afoot?

I think it's due to a combination of factors which all come down to a less favorable environment for factories (unions/higher wage expectations, regulations etc). However, a weaker dollar can mean more factories stay here for competing cheap labor. The trade-off is less spending power, which means our economy must shift away from being spending based. People will kick and scream when that realization hits but America simply won't continue to dominate the world economy.

Re: The demise of the dollar

#15

Post by DanielBMarkham »

warfangle wrote: post #11
jeromec wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Great insights, but I think we have to do more than keep our eye on it. I think it's imperative that we transition significantly to non-oil based energy consumption (as the Obama administration is encouraging). The problem is we've allowed ourselves to become too dependent on spending, accounting for 70% of our economy. Americans have become accustomed to cheap products, and gas, while at the same time turning a nose…

I wish we would make things again. I really do. There's so much tech that can be invested in to make a cleaner, more beautiful America - and yet all the factories for it are going overseas (Germany, Taiwan, and so forth). Why are we so far behind on the high-tech manufacturing curve? Did we just rest on our laurels for too long, or is something more nefarious afoot?

It's a question that's easy enough to answer.

Pick a product. Then go do the research and work to determine how much it would take to make it here. Then repeat that process with somewhere else.

This is the same process that companies go through. There's nothing mysterious about it.

Re: The demise of the dollar

#16

Post by warfangle »

DanielBMarkham wrote: post #15
warfangle wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wish we would make things again. I really do. There's so much tech that can be invested in to make a cleaner, more beautiful America - and yet all the factories for it are going overseas (Germany, Taiwan, and so forth). Why are we so far behind on the high-tech manufacturing curve? Did we just rest on our laurels for too long, or is something more nefarious afoot?

It's a question that's easy enough to answer. Pick a product. Then go do the research and work to determine how much it would take to make it here. Then repeat that process with somewhere else. This is the same process that companies go through. There's nothing mysterious about it.

Why is it more expensive here than in, say, Germany? Is it just the unions? Can't be, 'cause Germany has trade unions too. If anything, they're bigger there - The German Confederate of Trade Unions claims 25% of the working populace as members. Is it the healthcare? Oh, wait. Is it the education? Hrm. Is it pork? Is it 'cause we've got a lot of tornados, or is it the hurricanes?

It just doesn't make much sense. What makes it cheaper to operate a chip or solar panel factory in Dresden than in, say, North Carolina?

Re: The demise of the dollar

#17

Post by DanielBMarkham »

warfangle wrote: post #16
DanielBMarkham wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a question that's easy enough to answer. Pick a product. Then go do the research and work to determine how much it would take to make it here. Then repeat that process with somewhere else. This is the same process that companies go through. There's nothing mysterious about it.

Why is it more expensive here than in, say, Germany? Is it just the unions? Can't be, 'cause Germany has trade unions too. If anything, they're bigger there - The German Confederate of Trade Unions claims 25% of the working populace as members. Is it the healthcare? Oh, wait. Is it the education? Hrm. Is it pork? Is it 'cause we've got a lot of tornados, or is it the hurricanes? It just doesn't make much sense. What…

I think you are presuming an answer (trade unions) and then arguing with yourself when the answer doesn't work.

Do the exercise. It's easy enough to pull reasons from the air and vet them, but that's just an advanced form of straw man arguments. You'll never get anywhere like that.

I know that if there is a factory making something in Germany and not one here that for some reason the economics work better in Germany. Lots of really smart people who add and subtract numbers are paid to make these decisions based on where the numbers work the best. That's their job. That's the only thing they're supposed to do well, and they're good at it. You can bet there's an economic reason somewhere.

Re: The demise of the dollar

#18

Post by idiopathic »

jeromec wrote: post #10
Perceval wrote: post #3

It's an interesting threat, and one that we're going to have to keep out eye on. But I have reservations about how effective multinational cooperation on international monetary policy can be. One of the reasons that the dollar is the global reserve currency is because there is so much of it in circulation. No other currency is as liquid. Moving oil purchases of a bloc of countries to a non-dollar basket of currencies…

Great insights, but I think we have to do more than keep our eye on it. I think it's imperative that we transition significantly to non-oil based energy consumption (as the Obama administration is encouraging). The problem is we've allowed ourselves to become too dependent on spending, accounting for 70% of our economy. Americans have become accustomed to cheap products, and gas, while at the same time turning a nose…

> Americans have become accustomed to cheap product, and gas, while at the same time turning a nose up at menial jobs

I understand that cheap gas is bad for environment, but why are the other items in your list bad? Everyone who is doing a menial job wishes they could afford to turn a nose up it, and cheap products are great. Even cheap gas is good for Americans (apart from the environmental damage) because it means freedom of movement as transportation is so affordable.

Re: The demise of the dollar

#19

Post by jeromec »

idiopathic wrote: post #18
jeromec wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Great insights, but I think we have to do more than keep our eye on it. I think it's imperative that we transition significantly to non-oil based energy consumption (as the Obama administration is encouraging). The problem is we've allowed ourselves to become too dependent on spending, accounting for 70% of our economy. Americans have become accustomed to cheap products, and gas, while at the same time turning a nose…

> Americans have become accustomed to cheap product, and gas, while at the same time turning a nose up at menial jobs I understand that cheap gas is bad for environment, but why are the other items in your list bad? Everyone who is doing a menial job wishes they could afford to turn a nose up it, and cheap products are great. Even cheap gas is good for Americans (apart from the environmental damage) because it means…

In my post I was concerned with the health of the economy, not the environment. It's true that energy and the environment are linked, but that problem is not the focus here.

Re: The demise of the dollar

#20

Post by jeromec »

warfangle wrote: post #16
DanielBMarkham wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a question that's easy enough to answer. Pick a product. Then go do the research and work to determine how much it would take to make it here. Then repeat that process with somewhere else. This is the same process that companies go through. There's nothing mysterious about it.

Why is it more expensive here than in, say, Germany? Is it just the unions? Can't be, 'cause Germany has trade unions too. If anything, they're bigger there - The German Confederate of Trade Unions claims 25% of the working populace as members. Is it the healthcare? Oh, wait. Is it the education? Hrm. Is it pork? Is it 'cause we've got a lot of tornados, or is it the hurricanes? It just doesn't make much sense. What…

I have to agree with DanielBMarkham, and say a factory movement conspiracy is less likely than real world circumstances. (I'm not saying other conspiracies are as unlikely) I was in a store years ago talking with a guy doing contract work there, changing lighting etc. As the owner he was doing it himself complaining that "no one wants to work."
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