Bubble Bubble Everywhere • Hacker News Board

Re: Bubble Bubble Everywhere

#11

Post by david927 » Wed, Dec 05, 2007, 3:37 PM UTC

aswanson wrote: post #9

Stop talking about bubbles and get back to coding. All the billionaires made in that era didn't pay attention to the idoicy going on around them. They just executed. Now I'm off to follow my own advice.

And this is how you can tell it really is a bubble: people talking about becoming billionaires. It's silly and smacks of a get-rich-quick scheme.

If a bubble is best defined as irrational exuberance taking valuations as multiples of intrinsic value, then the fact that the exit strategies are different and there are fewer IPO's than 10 years ago is irrelevent. Web 2.0 seems to be clearly Dot Com Bubble 2.0.

Re: Bubble Bubble Everywhere

#12

Post by samson » Wed, Dec 05, 2007, 4:09 PM UTC

axod wrote: post #3

"The best is yet to come, as Advertising rates will increase and I think Microsoft will become a leader in the space as they are innovating and Brian McAndrews who leads the Advertiser and Publisher Solutions seems to know what he is talking about." That is simply laughable. Ask anyone who has used msn adcenter vs google adwords. Microsoft have absolutely no clue whatsoever IMHO.

I'm not so sure that Marcus's claim is entirely invalid. I think what he is trying to propose is that in the long run the competition that Google will be facing by having another ad publisher like Microsoft, will make things better for site owners as it will give more competition in the ad space.

As we know Google is cash filled with money made from their ads program. If Microsoft is willing to give more of that money back to the site owners to gain market share, Google will have to react.

Re: Bubble Bubble Everywhere

#13

Post by samson » Wed, Dec 05, 2007, 4:31 PM UTC

david927 wrote: post #11

aswanson wrote: post #9

Stop talking about bubbles and get back to coding. All the billionaires made in that era didn't pay attention to the idoicy going on around them. They just executed. Now I'm off to follow my own advice.

And this is how you can tell it really is a bubble: people talking about becoming billionaires. It's silly and smacks of a get-rich-quick scheme. If a bubble is best defined as irrational exuberance taking valuations as multiples of intrinsic value, then the fact that the exit strategies are different and there are fewer IPO's than 10 years ago is irrelevent. Web 2.0 seems to be clearly Dot Com Bubble 2.0.

Just cause he included billionaire in that sentence, does not safely support the inference that he's thinking of a get rich quick scheme, or prove that we are in a bubble.

People will always look to the achievement's of Bill Gates and Larry Page regardless of the cycles the industry maybe in. In a recession or depression, investors will still always quote Warren Buffett.

Re: Bubble Bubble Everywhere

#14

Post by david927 » Fri, Dec 07, 2007, 8:40 AM UTC

samson wrote: post #13

david927 wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And this is how you can tell it really is a bubble: people talking about becoming billionaires. It's silly and smacks of a get-rich-quick scheme. If a bubble is best defined as irrational exuberance taking valuations as multiples of intrinsic value, then the fact that the exit strategies are different and there are fewer IPO's than 10 years ago is irrelevent. Web 2.0 seems to be clearly Dot Com Bubble 2.0.

Just cause he included billionaire in that sentence, does not safely support the inference that he's thinking of a get rich quick scheme, or prove that we are in a bubble. People will always look to the achievement's of Bill Gates and Larry Page regardless of the cycles the industry maybe in. In a recession or depression, investors will still always quote Warren Buffett.

... the achievements of Bill Gates ...

Exactly.

Re: Bubble Bubble Everywhere

#15

Post by aswanson » Sat, Dec 08, 2007, 12:56 AM UTC

david927 wrote: post #11

aswanson wrote: post #9

Stop talking about bubbles and get back to coding. All the billionaires made in that era didn't pay attention to the idoicy going on around them. They just executed. Now I'm off to follow my own advice.

And this is how you can tell it really is a bubble: people talking about becoming billionaires. It's silly and smacks of a get-rich-quick scheme. If a bubble is best defined as irrational exuberance taking valuations as multiples of intrinsic value, then the fact that the exit strategies are different and there are fewer IPO's than 10 years ago is irrelevent. Web 2.0 seems to be clearly Dot Com Bubble 2.0.

I wasn't talking about people becoming billionaires, but you could be right: maybe there will never be another billionaire made ever again. Getting back to coding doesn't smack of a get rich quick scheme, just an exhortation to cut the bullshit. Does it matter if there is one or not? If you are making something that is fulfilling a need you shouldn't care.

At any rate, I'm hypocritical by responding to a response of a response to my criticism to stop the bubble talk and just to get 'er done. Let's end the recursion now.

Re: Bubble Bubble Everywhere

#16

Post by axod » Sat, Dec 08, 2007, 12:41 PM UTC

samson wrote: post #12

axod wrote: post #3

"The best is yet to come, as Advertising rates will increase and I think Microsoft will become a leader in the space as they are innovating and Brian McAndrews who leads the Advertiser and Publisher Solutions seems to know what he is talking about." That is simply laughable. Ask anyone who has used msn adcenter vs google adwords. Microsoft have absolutely no clue whatsoever IMHO.

I'm not so sure that Marcus's claim is entirely invalid. I think what he is trying to propose is that in the long run the competition that Google will be facing by having another ad publisher like Microsoft, will make things better for site owners as it will give more competition in the ad space. As we know Google is cash filled with money made from their ads program. If Microsoft is willing to give more of that mone…

It's not the money though. If microsoft offered far higher rates for publishers, and far lower rates for advertisers than google does, I'd still be reluctant to use microsoft. The main blocker is that they simply cannot write webapps. The interface for dealing with adcenter is amongst the worst webapps of all time. It's a very very slow painful procedure to get anything done at all. Things you can do in adwords in 5 minutes can take hours in msn adcenter.