It is all related to quantitative easing, there are not savings, but easy money around. Totally different dynamics compared to last stock bubble.
Last Time It Was This Crazy, the Stock Market Crashed
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Re: Last Time It Was This Crazy, the Stock Market Crashed
#12So you're saying I'll soon be able to pick up a bunch of undervalued stocks?
Possibly. The trick is to spot them among all the stocks will have dropped from very overvalued to just overvalued.
Re: Last Time It Was This Crazy, the Stock Market Crashed
#13I'm reading things like this since 5 years. When do people start to analyse what's really happening instead of saying "according to what we experienced 10-15 years ago, it should be way worse than it was back then." There are reasons why the start-up market is still growing but wasn't in 2000.
Re: Last Time It Was This Crazy, the Stock Market Crashed
#14"A parabolic rise in start ups with valuations of $1 Billion or More" or "A linear rise in startup valuations on a logrithmic scale". Amazing what happens in 10 years when worldwide smartphones go from a tens of millions a year (2004) to over a billion a year (2014). Apple has 130 billion in cash sitting overseas with nothing to spend it on. Microsoft has 90 billion. Google has at least 30 billion. Facebook has over…
You are citing existing old ultra-successful companies, the best of the best, to justify the high valuation of startups now. That isn't much of an argument.
> My rule of thumb is that if you can get 100,000,000 users you can sell for $1,000,000,000.
Lots of users does equal success because you only have to monetize them at low numbers. But the number of 100M user companies is still very few.
> Hell did even Google have a hundred million users back then?
They had a dominant search position, so their percentage penetration of internet search was huge, maybe higher than it is now because China and its wall garden hasn't yet arisen.
Re: Last Time It Was This Crazy, the Stock Market Crashed
#15I'm reading things like this since 5 years. When do people start to analyse what's really happening instead of saying "according to what we experienced 10-15 years ago, it should be way worse than it was back then." There are reasons why the start-up market is still growing but wasn't in 2000.
> I'm reading things like this since 5 years.
Just because there are repeated warnings about irrational exuberance, and we haven't had a correction YET, doesn't mean that there isn't irrational exuberance.
> When do people start to analyse what's really happening instead of saying "according to what we experienced 10-15 years ago, it should be way worse than it was back then."
I don't think it needs to be way worse that it was then. Corrections are different every time.
> There are reasons why the start-up market is still growing but wasn't in 2000.
Define "start-up market" and "growth", because in 2000 prior to the crash there was a ton of money going into startups, a ridiculous amount. It was only after the crash that things went sour.
Re: Last Time It Was This Crazy, the Stock Market Crashed
#16"A parabolic rise in start ups with valuations of $1 Billion or More" or "A linear rise in startup valuations on a logrithmic scale". Amazing what happens in 10 years when worldwide smartphones go from a tens of millions a year (2004) to over a billion a year (2014). Apple has 130 billion in cash sitting overseas with nothing to spend it on. Microsoft has 90 billion. Google has at least 30 billion. Facebook has over…
>> "My rule of thumb is that if you can get 100,000,000 users you can sell for $1,000,000,000. You don't even need revenue! Crazy, but that is a shit load of users. How many 2000 dotcom companies had a hundred million users? Hell did even Google have a hundred million users back then?"
You could have 6 billion users - it doesn't mean anything unless you can monetise them.
And nobody can come up with a smarter way than advertising? It's the only thing to fall back on because of how the companies start. If you get 100,000,000 users and charge them nothing they will leave you if you try to start charging. They may get pissed about advertising but that will fade. I would love to see more companies focussed on monetising from the start.
Whatsapp seemed to be doing a pretty good job of that (99¢ per year) but they took on a ton of funding so had to sell. I understand the mentality of take all the funding you can get ('free' money, why not?) but nobody seems willing to struggle for a bit. They want high paid employees with lots of nice perks from day 1.
Re: Last Time It Was This Crazy, the Stock Market Crashed
#17It is all related to quantitative easing, there are not savings, but easy money around. Totally different dynamics compared to last stock bubble.
I have not read a good analysis as to the end game of quantitative easing. What does the end of that era fortell in terms of US macroeconomics and how does quantitative easing feed into the VC ecosystem? Or is quantitative easing here to stay and we will just have a related long term slow devaluation of the USD?
Re: Last Time It Was This Crazy, the Stock Market Crashed
#18The only ones loosing will be the lower end of the food chain. Everyone on top knows what's coming and is storing their assets on single state islands far away from where the water will be going dry. You really think all those SV people preaching "this is not a bubble" are 100% in and haven't at least liquidated 99% of their value from the stock market?
All what's left is digits on screens and papers.
Re: Last Time It Was This Crazy, the Stock Market Crashed
#19It is all related to quantitative easing, there are not savings, but easy money around. Totally different dynamics compared to last stock bubble.
I have not read a good analysis as to the end game of quantitative easing. What does the end of that era fortell in terms of US macroeconomics and how does quantitative easing feed into the VC ecosystem? Or is quantitative easing here to stay and we will just have a related long term slow devaluation of the USD?
Just read basic economics, it is really simple.
VC ecosystem is insignificant. Easing will stay until its results are aligned with leaders priorities.
Re: Last Time It Was This Crazy, the Stock Market Crashed
#20It is all related to quantitative easing, there are not savings, but easy money around. Totally different dynamics compared to last stock bubble.
I have not read a good analysis as to the end game of quantitative easing. What does the end of that era fortell in terms of US macroeconomics and how does quantitative easing feed into the VC ecosystem? Or is quantitative easing here to stay and we will just have a related long term slow devaluation of the USD?
When western governments hold so much debt the only realistic way of dealing with it is inflation, hence QE.