Microsoft Prediction Lab • Hacker News Board

Re: Microsoft Prediction Lab

#11

Post by shawn-butler » Mon, Sep 29, 2014, 10:00 PM UTC

Stronico wrote: post #4

Oddly - I'm about to roll out my own prediction market next month. Does anyone know if they have tried something like this before?

Yes it was a total and utter failure as I recall: ipredict.msnbc.com

http://web.archive.org/web/20080820025756/http://ipredict.ms...

Re: Microsoft Prediction Lab

#12

Post by mappu » Mon, Sep 29, 2014, 10:01 PM UTC

Stronico wrote: post #4

Oddly - I'm about to roll out my own prediction market next month. Does anyone know if they have tried something like this before?

I understand prediction markets are illegal in some countries, but ipredict.co.nz is very popular here and is often covered in mainstream media.

Re: Microsoft Prediction Lab

#13

Post by chromaton » Mon, Sep 29, 2014, 10:41 PM UTC

Stronico wrote: post #4

Oddly - I'm about to roll out my own prediction market next month. Does anyone know if they have tried something like this before?

Intrade was a popular one, now closed. The big problem I see is lack of liquidity in the less popular markets.

Re: Microsoft Prediction Lab

#14

Post by adam » Mon, Sep 29, 2014, 11:12 PM UTC

Stronico wrote: post #4

Oddly - I'm about to roll out my own prediction market next month. Does anyone know if they have tried something like this before?

MS has experimented with prediction markets internally off and on. This particular market is being run by David Rothschild who is a researcher at Microsoft. He's run the site http://predictwise.com for quite some time and done a really nice job with it. I've met David in person and he's an uber smart guy with some really good ideas. This is a "labs" project for the time being as the name implies, but I wouldn't be surprised to see some of this work make its way in to MS products in one form or another, i.e. embedded prediction market style questions in Sharepoint or MS Project, or even as ad units on Bing to collect a massive pool of forecasts.

Re: Microsoft Prediction Lab

#15

Post by amaks » Mon, Sep 29, 2014, 11:42 PM UTC

Interesting. What's also interesting is that they allow signing in with the Google+ accounts.

Re: Microsoft Prediction Lab

#16

Post by csom » Tue, Sep 30, 2014, 12:25 AM UTC

Maybe it can predict which Microsoft lab will be closed next? ;-)

Re: Microsoft Prediction Lab

#17

Post by ck2 » Tue, Sep 30, 2014, 1:19 AM UTC

      [HT Error] sessionStorage is null

(pro-tip: don't design around mandatory local storage, there is no good reason)

Re: Microsoft Prediction Lab

#18

Post by salimmadjd » Tue, Sep 30, 2014, 6:00 AM UTC

this would make an ideal mobile experience. I wish they had provided an API to build an app on top of it.

Re: Microsoft Prediction Lab

#19

Post by phreeza » Tue, Sep 30, 2014, 7:23 AM UTC

andrewfong wrote: post #2

Sounds similar to the Good Judgement Project: https://www.goodjudgmentproject.com/ Related article: http://www.npr.org/blogs/parallels/2014/04/02/297839429/-so-...

I signed up for the next season of the GJP after reading that article when it was on HN. Pretty excited to get started.

Re: Microsoft Prediction Lab

#20

Post by muyuu » Tue, Sep 30, 2014, 8:00 AM UTC

Reminds me of https://www.predictious.com/