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Uber vs. Car Ownership

blog.samaltman.com

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Re: Uber vs. Car Ownership

#11

Post by mmanfrin »

matthewaustin wrote: post #2

Imagine what will happen when we combine decentralized car use with autonomous driving. Uber is already cheaper than driving yourself around, but think how affordable it would be if no Uber driver was needed at all.

This is what excited me about Google buying part of Uber -- self-driving Uber taxis. Combine that with electric vehicles that can intelligently remove themselves from the swarm of cars and be replaced by a charged vehicle, and you have on-demand, cheap, and potentially environmentally more sound taxis.

Re: Uber vs. Car Ownership

#12

Post by maerF0x0 »

GBKS wrote: post #6

Still not sure how this would work for anybody with a family and kids and/or living outside of urban areas (the majority of people). Has this been touched on in previous discussions? Would love to hear some thoughts.

> "or living outside of urban areas (the majority of people)."

"as of 2010, more than half of all people live in an urban area. " [1]

[1]: http://www.who.int/gho/urban_health/situation_trends/urban_p...

Re: Uber vs. Car Ownership

#13

Post by crabasa »

I'm a huge fan of Sam's blog posts and he is President of YCombinator for a reason, but I'm struggling to understand what Sam think that his personal data point (as a wealthy owner of a Tesla Roadster no less) says about the viability of Uber replacing a family vehicle for normal people. Does he not realize that plenty of people love to drive?

Re: Uber vs. Car Ownership

#14

Post by CanSpice »

I would like to see a comparison between Uber, car sharing (like Zipcar or Car2Go or whatever local carsharing organization you might have) and car ownership. I'm a carsharer, and between me and my wife we spend about $500/month on carsharing, which looks about half of what it costs Mr. Altman to own and operate a Tesla Roadster.

Re: Uber vs. Car Ownership

#15

Post by gautambay »

GBKS wrote: post #6

Still not sure how this would work for anybody with a family and kids and/or living outside of urban areas (the majority of people). Has this been touched on in previous discussions? Would love to hear some thoughts.

Two thoughts:

1. People will move back to cities as cities become more attractive (thanks in part to things like the shared economy). There's already some evidence of this trend among millennials. Reverse white-flight if you will.

2. Uber will eventually work just as well in suburban areas. The fundamental economics don't change (higher resource utilization => lower costs). It will take longer to get to penetration levels that result in sufficiently high utilization. But we'll eventually get there.

Re: Uber vs. Car Ownership

#16

Post by craigmccaskill »

My wife and I moved to SF ~6 months ago from Mountain View. We sold one car almost as soon as we moved, as we definitely didn't need a car each. Just last week got rid of the last one as the math really didn't make sense.

All in, gas, insurance, car payment and parking spot we were spending over $900 a month on unavoidable monthly costs, at times this number would also go up based on using the car to get around the city and having to pay $10-40 to park the car at wherever we were going.

Add it all up and that same money can buy a lot of Uber/Lyft/Zipcar at 90% of the convenience. I've yet to see how much we'll spend monthly on various transportation services but so far it looks like we'll be saving close to $400/m.

Re: Uber vs. Car Ownership

#17

Post by xophe »

lol @ 5k a year depreciation, 3.5k maintenance, and 3.6k parking, i.e. the majority of this analysis.

In conclusion, paying someone to take you in their Toyota Prius is less expensive than paying for your own Tesla.

Still, I see sama's point. I own/maintain my own motorcycle and I uber/lyft when I can't do that. Best of both worlds.

Re: Uber vs. Car Ownership

#18

Post by pbreit »

GBKS wrote: post #6

Still not sure how this would work for anybody with a family and kids and/or living outside of urban areas (the majority of people). Has this been touched on in previous discussions? Would love to hear some thoughts.

Despite that suburban families are perhaps the least likely Uber demographic, it actually can work well and will likely continue to get better. First, kids in their teens to early 20s might not even have a car. Seniors might not be able to or want to drive. Parents might want to be driven to parties or nights out. Two driver family might be able to avoid that 3rd vehicle. And on and on.

It's not really that helpful to wonder about the worst scenario, especially without any imagination whatsoever.

Re: Uber vs. Car Ownership

#19

Post by recalibrator »

Sam. You own a Tesla Roadster, a car for people who don't have to niggle over money.

Most people a) don't live in SF b) have your money c) have access to Uber and d) have a Tesla Roadster.

You're essentially talking to yourself and a few choice friends who live in the same bubble as you.

Re: Uber vs. Car Ownership

#20

Post by rusabd »

In Kazakhstan you can hail any car on the street - the cost of travel would be about 5 dollars. People still buy cars because for certain trips it is inconvenient (e.g. going to/from an airport, shopping, travels outside cities, non-popular routes). This system also coexists with normal taxi services which are more expensive but the fares are still suppressed.
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