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Out of 15M brackets, none remains to win Warren Buffet's $1B March Madness bet

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Re: Out of 15M brackets, none remains to win Warren Buffet's $1B March Madness bet

#11

Post by poopicus »

dba7dba wrote: post #9

This stunt actually makes me angry. Not a good PR move imo. "I have enough money that I can risk giving up a billion $. And I may just give it to you if you can beat the odds that's harder than getting hit by lighting multiples times in 1 year." How about offering pot of 100 million to top (aka sweep) 16 instead... But never mind, it's their money...

I would argue that as a PR move, it's pretty brilliant. It's been brought up countless times since it was announced, and it's been pretty hype up until now. Sure, it was basically a sure bet for Buffet.. But it spawned a community in itself[1] and captured the imagination of many. I'd call that a good move.

[1] http://www.takebuffettsbillion.com/

Re: Out of 15M brackets, none remains to win Warren Buffet's $1B March Madness bet

#12

Post by _Robbie »

dba7dba wrote: post #9

This stunt actually makes me angry. Not a good PR move imo. "I have enough money that I can risk giving up a billion $. And I may just give it to you if you can beat the odds that's harder than getting hit by lighting multiples times in 1 year." How about offering pot of 100 million to top (aka sweep) 16 instead... But never mind, it's their money...

This does seem silly. According to the article, the odds of picking the correct bracket are less than 1 in 128 billion, so there is practically zero risk.

Re: Out of 15M brackets, none remains to win Warren Buffet's $1B March Madness bet

#13

Post by dfc »

dba7dba wrote: post #9

This stunt actually makes me angry. Not a good PR move imo. "I have enough money that I can risk giving up a billion $. And I may just give it to you if you can beat the odds that's harder than getting hit by lighting multiples times in 1 year." How about offering pot of 100 million to top (aka sweep) 16 instead... But never mind, it's their money...

Not a good PR move? Is this because you think it is a bad idea for:

  * quicken to get a ton of free mentions in the press with one month before
  income taxes are due?

  * this otherwise unknown gentleman from the midwest to announce to the world
  that he has a lot of money?

Re: Out of 15M brackets, none remains to win Warren Buffet's $1B March Madness bet

#14

Post by dfc »

_Robbie wrote: post #12
dba7dba wrote: post #9

This stunt actually makes me angry. Not a good PR move imo. "I have enough money that I can risk giving up a billion $. And I may just give it to you if you can beat the odds that's harder than getting hit by lighting multiples times in 1 year." How about offering pot of 100 million to top (aka sweep) 16 instead... But never mind, it's their money...

This does seem silly. According to the article, the odds of picking the correct bracket are less than 1 in 128 billion, so there is practically zero risk.

...drum roll...

Accurately assessing financial risk is the reason Buffet has stacked so much paper.

Re: Out of 15M brackets, none remains to win Warren Buffet's $1B March Madness bet

#15

Post by jw2013 »

thrush wrote: post #7

There are currently still 3 perfect brackets on ESPN. 1. http://games.espn.go.com/tournament-challenge-bracket/2014/en/entry?entryID=576318 1. http://games.espn.go.com/tournament-challenge-bracket/2014/en/entry?entryID=4155737 1. http://games.espn.go.com/tournament-challenge-bracket/2014/en/entry?entryID=10928050 http://games.espn.go.com/tournament-challenge-bracket/2014/e...

Now they are all done. Thanks, SF Austin. I got it wrong, too.

Re: Out of 15M brackets, none remains to win Warren Buffet's $1B March Madness bet

#16

Post by [deleted] »

_Robbie wrote: post #12
dba7dba wrote: post #9

This stunt actually makes me angry. Not a good PR move imo. "I have enough money that I can risk giving up a billion $. And I may just give it to you if you can beat the odds that's harder than getting hit by lighting multiples times in 1 year." How about offering pot of 100 million to top (aka sweep) 16 instead... But never mind, it's their money...

This does seem silly. According to the article, the odds of picking the correct bracket are less than 1 in 128 billion, so there is practically zero risk.

[deleted]

Re: Out of 15M brackets, none remains to win Warren Buffet's $1B March Madness bet

#17

Post by jefft »

thrush wrote: post #7

There are currently still 3 perfect brackets on ESPN. 1. http://games.espn.go.com/tournament-challenge-bracket/2014/en/entry?entryID=576318 1. http://games.espn.go.com/tournament-challenge-bracket/2014/en/entry?entryID=4155737 1. http://games.espn.go.com/tournament-challenge-bracket/2014/en/entry?entryID=10928050 http://games.espn.go.com/tournament-challenge-bracket/2014/e...

Not anymore: SFA 77 VCU 75

Re: Out of 15M brackets, none remains to win Warren Buffet's $1B March Madness bet

#18

Post by bluedevil2k »

A friend and I today discussed if you had a perfect bracket after the great 8 round, going into the Final 4, would you, and for how much, sell a stake in your bracket to hedge your money?

The numbers, though it's a "billion $" bracket, that's actually $25M over 40 years, or an optional $300M single payout. In the US, you could expect about 55% of that after taxes, so $165M. There are 3 games left at the Final 4 game.

Re: Out of 15M brackets, none remains to win Warren Buffet's $1B March Madness bet

#19

Post by tim333 »

_Robbie wrote: post #12
dba7dba wrote: post #9

This stunt actually makes me angry. Not a good PR move imo. "I have enough money that I can risk giving up a billion $. And I may just give it to you if you can beat the odds that's harder than getting hit by lighting multiples times in 1 year." How about offering pot of 100 million to top (aka sweep) 16 instead... But never mind, it's their money...

This does seem silly. According to the article, the odds of picking the correct bracket are less than 1 in 128 billion, so there is practically zero risk.

Unless you have a really good crystal ball.

Re: Out of 15M brackets, none remains to win Warren Buffet's $1B March Madness bet

#20

Post by bluedevil2k »

bluedevil2k wrote: post #18

A friend and I today discussed if you had a perfect bracket after the great 8 round, going into the Final 4, would you, and for how much, sell a stake in your bracket to hedge your money? The numbers, though it's a "billion $" bracket, that's actually $25M over 40 years, or an optional $300M single payout. In the US, you could expect about 55% of that after taxes, so $165M. There are 3 games left at the Final 4 game.

Math says you'd be willing to sell a 50% stake for $10M. Sad to think that compared to the "billion $" headlines.
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