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How are humans going to become extinct?

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Re: How are humans going to become extinct?

#11

Post by ilaksh »

I feel a medium-term or maybe even short-term threat (in the next 10-30 years) not of extinction necessarily but of becoming completely irrelevant. People like to jump to the conclusion that artificial super-intelligence will want to eliminate humans. I don't think that is a foregone conclusion at all.

However, if (when) super-intelligent artificial general intelligence "arrives", that pretty much makes normal unaugmented humans the relative equivalent of chimps. It means that our opinions and actions are no longer historically relevant. We will be, relatively speaking, obsolete mentally disabled people running along doing relatively stupid things. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_Juh7Xh_70

In order for our opinions and abilities to actually matter relative to the super-doings and super-thoughts of the new AIs, we really _must_ have this magical nano-dust or something that integrates our existing homo sapien 1.0 brains with some type of artificial super-intelligence.

So that is what I am worried about -- will the super-AIs show up before the high bandwidth nano-BCIs (brain-computer interfaces) or before I can afford them.

Of course, in the long run there may not be a good reason for AIs to use regular human bodies/brains at all and so that may be phased out for subsequent generations.

Re: How are humans going to become extinct?

#12

Post by toomuchtodo »

wmgries wrote: post #4
sdrothrock wrote: post #3

The article talks about disasters that could eliminate humanity, but I wonder if humanity is more likely to become extinct in the sense of no longer being "homo sapiens." For example, through a technological singularity or even just through accumulated gene therapy over generations.

This is an interesting issue. At what point will our descendants feel that they are different enough from us through natural or guided (by science) evolution?

At what point did we determine we were substantially different than apes?

Re: How are humans going to become extinct?

#13

Post by infogulch »

arg01 wrote: post #5
sdrothrock wrote: post #3

The article talks about disasters that could eliminate humanity, but I wonder if humanity is more likely to become extinct in the sense of no longer being "homo sapiens." For example, through a technological singularity or even just through accumulated gene therapy over generations.

I wonder if in the case of a technological singularity would you be able to tell that the original species was human? That is to say if we're at the point that we are augmenting our brains to that degree will the difference between a human/dolphin/great ape brain as a base be dwarfed by the technological layers on top of it? That's getting a bit speculative as a question though. It was more of a thought on how much/h…

You could take the evolutionary viewpoint, where two branches of a species are considered to be distinct when they can no longer breed. Though with the current state of globalization I doubt that could happen... on earth.

Re: How are humans going to become extinct?

#15

Post by lutusp »

A quote: " ... international policymakers must pay serious attention to the reality of species-obliterating risks."

Are these people all completely ignorant of evolution and science? No matter what happens in the future, one or another species-obliterating risk is a certainty. Here's why:

1. Our species has existed for about 200,000 years.

2. On that basis, and given our present knowledge of biology and evolution by natural selection, it's reasonable to assume that, within another 200,000 years, we will have been replaced by another species who either successfully competed with us, or into whom we simply evolved over time.

3. Human beings are a note, perhaps a measure, in a natural symphony. We're not the symphony, and we're certainly not the reason the music exists.

4. Based on the above estimate, there will be 10,000 more human generations, after which our successors will no longer resemble modern humans, in the same way that our ancestors from 200,000 years ago did not resemble us.

5. We need to get over ourselves -- our lives are a gift, not a mandate.

6. I plan to enjoy my gift, and not take myself too seriously. How about you?

Re: How are humans going to become extinct?

#16

Post by lutusp »

wmgries wrote: post #4
sdrothrock wrote: post #3

The article talks about disasters that could eliminate humanity, but I wonder if humanity is more likely to become extinct in the sense of no longer being "homo sapiens." For example, through a technological singularity or even just through accumulated gene therapy over generations.

This is an interesting issue. At what point will our descendants feel that they are different enough from us through natural or guided (by science) evolution?

> At what point will our descendants feel that they are different enough from us through natural or guided (by science) evolution?

Easily answered: our species has existed for about 200,000 years. Based on that, and barring any speed-up in the rate of evolution by selection (natural or unnatural), we will have been replaced by another species in another 200,000 years. This will happen no matter what else happens -- assuming we're not subject to any global catastrophe, but simply evolve as a species into something we cannot presently imagine.

Re: How are humans going to become extinct?

#17

Post by [deleted] »

lutusp wrote: post #15

A quote: " ... international policymakers must pay serious attention to the reality of species-obliterating risks." Are these people all completely ignorant of evolution and science? No matter what happens in the future, one or another species-obliterating risk is a certainty. Here's why: 1. Our species has existed for about 200,000 years. 2. On that basis, and given our present knowledge of biology and evolution by…

[deleted]

Re: How are humans going to become extinct?

#18

Post by lutusp »

infogulch wrote: post #13
arg01 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder if in the case of a technological singularity would you be able to tell that the original species was human? That is to say if we're at the point that we are augmenting our brains to that degree will the difference between a human/dolphin/great ape brain as a base be dwarfed by the technological layers on top of it? That's getting a bit speculative as a question though. It was more of a thought on how much/h…

You could take the evolutionary viewpoint, where two branches of a species are considered to be distinct when they can no longer breed. Though with the current state of globalization I doubt that could happen... on earth.

But the human lineage doesn't need to split into branches for us to be replaced by another species -- we might instead simply evolve away from our present form sufficiently that present-day people would not be able to (a) recognize our own descendants as kindred spirits or (b) be able to breed with them (assuming an imaginary biological test in which one of us is propelled 200,000 years into the future).

Modern humans have existed for about 200,000 years. Therefore, natural selection being what it is, chances are in another 200,000 years we will no longer exist in our present form, but be replaced by a new species, one we cannot imagine.

Re: How are humans going to become extinct?

#19

Post by sentientmachine »

lutusp wrote: post #15

A quote: " ... international policymakers must pay serious attention to the reality of species-obliterating risks." Are these people all completely ignorant of evolution and science? No matter what happens in the future, one or another species-obliterating risk is a certainty. Here's why: 1. Our species has existed for about 200,000 years. 2. On that basis, and given our present knowledge of biology and evolution by…

Our planet needs to create at least one offspring with a good chance of sprouting a fresh batch of DNA based life on another planet before we send ourselves back into the stone age. If we don't, there are only so many shots left for us to become a space faring civilization again. If our species can't get off this planet. We may die as surly as an ant colony in the middle of the desert. DNA based life on this planet will halt, without anyone to carry on the carnival somewhere else in the universe.

This is serious business. If we don't fill the entire universe with efficient replicators to speed up the consumption of all energy to equilibrium. Then the reason the universe was created will have been for nothing. The stars must not be allowed to run down without our first harvesting them for our multitude of shenanigans.

Re: How are humans going to become extinct?

#20

Post by ggreer »

sdrothrock wrote: post #3

The article talks about disasters that could eliminate humanity, but I wonder if humanity is more likely to become extinct in the sense of no longer being "homo sapiens." For example, through a technological singularity or even just through accumulated gene therapy over generations.

When Bostrom and others talk about humanity, they usually mean humanity and its extremely advanced descendants. They expect some value drift. Robin Hanson puts it rather succinctly in http://www.overcomingbias.com/2011/12/steps-up-the-ladder.ht...:

Of course we should also wonder what we may become as we rise. We are no longer the foragers who began this climb, nor the farmers who climbed just a few floors below, and those ancestors would probably not be pleased with everything we have become. We’ll probably also have misgivings about what our descendants become. But hopefully we will on net be proud of them, just as our ancestors would probably be proud of us.

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