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Will robots steal our jobs? The humble loom suggests not

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Re: Will robots steal our jobs? The humble loom suggests not

#11
post #2

One of the arguments of this article is that as technology stabilizes we will be able to demand higher pay. Technology will likely not stabilize.

Well, it must, some day. But I'm not betting on any specific millennium.

I just love those articles that state that "we have no problem" because "everything just settles out at the end", while forgetting that one of the mechanisms for everything to settle up is a huge share of the population dying. It's survival bias acting at slaughter time.

Re: Will robots steal our jobs? The humble loom suggests not

#12
post #4

Richard Posner's view: http://www.becker-posner-blog.com/2014/01/secular-stagnation...

TL;DR:

> It is difficult to imagine productive activities that cannot be automated—mining, construction, many medical services, house cleaning: the list goes on and on.

> A decline in the demand for labor, caused by automation, will result in lower wages, without necessarily producing an increase in employment (work effort will not grow if there is no work), let alone an increase in national income.

However, as he also states, "with no truck drivers to pay, the cost of truck transportation will fall, and price will follow". In my view, this will further reduce the main necessities of living (food, hygiene products, energy) which will in turn allow people to live with much less money. Therefore, the poverty levels should fall, as well. It is not hard to imagine the government paying enough social welfare so that everyone can afford basic stuff. Actually, government could also just buy enough robots and produce all the necessities itself.

Re: Will robots steal our jobs? The humble loom suggests not

#13
post #12
post #4

Richard Posner's view: http://www.becker-posner-blog.com/2014/01/secular-stagnation...

TL;DR: > It is difficult to imagine productive activities that cannot be automated—mining, construction, many medical services, house cleaning: the list goes on and on. > A decline in the demand for labor, caused by automation, will result in lower wages, without necessarily producing an increase in employment (work effort will not grow if there is no work), let alone an increase in national income. However, as he al…

As long as population stays manageable, which sounds feasible in developed economies, and the owners of capital accept being taxed to fund that, or go the Bill Gates way.

Re: Will robots steal our jobs? The humble loom suggests not

#14
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TL;DR: > It is difficult to imagine productive activities that cannot be automated—mining, construction, many medical services, house cleaning: the list goes on and on. > A decline in the demand for labor, caused by automation, will result in lower wages, without necessarily producing an increase in employment (work effort will not grow if there is no work), let alone an increase in national income. However, as he al…

As long as population stays manageable, which sounds feasible in developed economies, and the owners of capital accept being taxed to fund that, or go the Bill Gates way.

> the owners of capital accept being taxed to fund that

Given that the alternative seems to be riots and potentially a revolution, I think they will see that it is in their benefit to keep the population living reasonably well.

Re: Will robots steal our jobs? The humble loom suggests not

#15
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As long as population stays manageable, which sounds feasible in developed economies, and the owners of capital accept being taxed to fund that, or go the Bill Gates way.

> the owners of capital accept being taxed to fund that Given that the alternative seems to be riots and potentially a revolution, I think they will see that it is in their benefit to keep the population living reasonably well.

Investment in riot control gear and militarization of police in first world countries doesn't suggest that this realization is going to come any time soon.

Re: Will robots steal our jobs? The humble loom suggests not

#16
post #12
post #4

Richard Posner's view: http://www.becker-posner-blog.com/2014/01/secular-stagnation...

TL;DR: > It is difficult to imagine productive activities that cannot be automated—mining, construction, many medical services, house cleaning: the list goes on and on. > A decline in the demand for labor, caused by automation, will result in lower wages, without necessarily producing an increase in employment (work effort will not grow if there is no work), let alone an increase in national income. However, as he al…

To get some sense of the numbers:

labor currently takes around 65% of gdp[1]. Owners of the automation will take some of that gain ,so at best we'll see 50% reduction in prices.

According to one calculation, a $10K per person over 21 is a possible basic income proposal[2]. So for family , after adding the 50% deflation, each family will receive $40K in today's dollars.

$40K is close to the median family income in 2012($53K). And we still haven't factored non-automation based innovation.

[1]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wage_share

[2]http://nextbigfuture.com/2013/11/a-basic-income-of-about-100...

Re: Will robots steal our jobs? The humble loom suggests not

#17
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As long as population stays manageable, which sounds feasible in developed economies, and the owners of capital accept being taxed to fund that, or go the Bill Gates way.

> the owners of capital accept being taxed to fund that Given that the alternative seems to be riots and potentially a revolution, I think they will see that it is in their benefit to keep the population living reasonably well.

The incentives are wrong. Each taxpayer would like to reduce his own burden specifically, but everyone shares the cost of riots and revolution (which is mostly harder on the poor, anyway). Not having riots and revolution is a common good.

Re: Will robots steal our jobs? The humble loom suggests not

#19
post #12
post #4

Richard Posner's view: http://www.becker-posner-blog.com/2014/01/secular-stagnation...

TL;DR: > It is difficult to imagine productive activities that cannot be automated—mining, construction, many medical services, house cleaning: the list goes on and on. > A decline in the demand for labor, caused by automation, will result in lower wages, without necessarily producing an increase in employment (work effort will not grow if there is no work), let alone an increase in national income. However, as he al…

To extrapolate on what you said: "which will in turn allow people to live with much less money", I think this is absolutely true but the endgame is that most things will be nearly free but people will have no money to buy them.

For example computers are effectively free now, they are widely available on Craigslist for under $100 and capable smartphones are bundled into most cellular plans. Flat screen TVs, for all their perceived excess, halve in price each year. However houses and cars still cost $100,000 and $10,000, even used. What's beginning to haunt me is that soon there will be no money in so many industries that people think of as lucrative now: computing, transportation, services, etc, yet the things that constitute the core infrastructure of our society only appreciate in value. You'll be able to get what you want, but not what you need.

My prediction for America in 10 or 20 years, assuming there is no intervention soon, is that corporations will replace the state as the primary wealth manager and that nearly the entirety of the population, probably 400 million people by then, will have no wealth to speak of. People will be struggling to find high paying jobs because raises will be a thing of the past once automation progressively lowers costs each year. There will be a profound sense of being "locked in", running a perpetual rat race where work that used to be worth $100 per hour slips to $50, then $25, and so on until even the most trying work is not profitable, and stabilizes on some rate set by fear, perhaps $10 an hour. With everyone making this across industries, we'll have neo-communism. Your boss won't be able to afford a home, and neither will his or her boss. But go high enough up the ladder and houses will be gifted out as perks.

Then there will be some kind of revolution, it's tempting to think we don't know what form it will take, but if it's to be successful it will be a peaceful one. Basically we'll all look around and wonder why we're all working so hard in the most productive economy that's ever existed, and we'll throw out the bosses by deciding not to participate in the activities that they depend on. Suddenly everyone will have a substantial level of public wealth, you'll instantly own the home you're in, and it will be unclear whether you'll still pay a mortgage. The way it works is that the people and policies that help society are carried over post revolution, and the ones that hinder it are cast aside.

I kind of hope I'm wrong about all of this, but I know in my heart I'm not. We're living in the last heyday of the industrial age, "enjoy" it while it lasts. We can even pretend that we don't know what the post-revolution age will look like, but that's not true either. Everyone's standard of living will go up to what it would have been without oppression. Only this time it will feel unthinkable to coerce people into doing work you would disdain to do yourself, so robots will fill that role instead of other ethnicities, genders or foreigners. It may very well be the last revolution before we're a spacefaring society.

In fairness, and because this got so long, I just want to say that this is only one possible future, and that we may very well adopt robots on a personal level like the PC (hydroponic gardens, off-grid homes and cars built of recycled materials, a sharing economy like Airbnb for everything) before then and the next generation may follow a completely different path. I just think this is the most likely forecast, based on the evidence I see around me now.

Re: Will robots steal our jobs? The humble loom suggests not

#20
post #2

One of the arguments of this article is that as technology stabilizes we will be able to demand higher pay. Technology will likely not stabilize.

Internet technology has stabilized already: we're still using HTML, HTTP, javascript, etc. The Space Jam website from 1996 still loads in a browser. Most servers and clients still use IPv4. Etc.
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