Japan's aging population could actually be good news • Hacker News Board

Re: Japan's aging population could actually be good news

#11

Post by gwern » Sat, Jan 11, 2014, 9:51 PM UTC

rayiner wrote: post #9

Here's the problem I see with both population decline and life extension: lots of research indicates that the creative peak happens from 20-40 or so. Geniuses rarely continue to be the same level of productive after that. In other words, progress is probably better served by giving two people the chance to live 50 years than one person the chance to live 100, though resource consumption is about the same. An aging so…

> Here's the problem I see with both population decline and life extension: lots of research indicates that the creative peak happens from 20-40 or so.

I'm not sure that's as clear as you think it is. There's a number of issues and confounds which mean that simply plotting age vs achievement can be very misleading. Check out "Age and Outstanding Achievement: What do We Know After a Century of Research?" http://www.resources.emartin.net/blog/docs/AgeAchievement.pd... , Simonton 1988

Re: Japan's aging population could actually be good news

#12

Post by modeless » Sat, Jan 11, 2014, 9:53 PM UTC

rayiner wrote: post #9

Here's the problem I see with both population decline and life extension: lots of research indicates that the creative peak happens from 20-40 or so. Geniuses rarely continue to be the same level of productive after that. In other words, progress is probably better served by giving two people the chance to live 50 years than one person the chance to live 100, though resource consumption is about the same. An aging so…

Part of life extension is restoring neuroplasticity. If medical science advances to the point where we can cure cancer along with all the other diseases of aging, rejuvenating the brain ought to be doable too.

Re: Japan's aging population could actually be good news

#13

Post by themgt » Sat, Jan 11, 2014, 10:06 PM UTC

It's the "Children of Men" solution to the automation/jobs crisis.

Re: Japan's aging population could actually be good news

#14

Post by onebaddude » Sat, Jan 11, 2014, 10:09 PM UTC

rayiner wrote: post #9

Here's the problem I see with both population decline and life extension: lots of research indicates that the creative peak happens from 20-40 or so. Geniuses rarely continue to be the same level of productive after that. In other words, progress is probably better served by giving two people the chance to live 50 years than one person the chance to live 100, though resource consumption is about the same. An aging so…

>lots of research indicates that the creative peak happens from 20-40 or so

Is that a social or physiological phenomenon?

I always assumed the great thinkers became less prolific as they voluntarily moved into other stages of life, like finding a mate and starting a family, and hence had less time to commit to intellectual pursuits.

Re: Japan's aging population could actually be good news

#15

Post by a8da6b0c91d » Sat, Jan 11, 2014, 10:14 PM UTC

didgeoridoo wrote: post #7

gtaylor wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If your life raft is sinking, do you try to patch it, or do you throw someone overboard? Your instinctual answer says a lot about the type of person you are. Nobody is being thrown overboard. The article is just pointing out that it may not necessarily be catastrophic if population growth slows or even reverses for a time. We're all just speculating, whether you agree or disagree. In support of the article, slower…

A fertility rate of 1.4 is not a slowing of growth. It means population is shrinking. If you think of individuals as net negative for society, you probably think this is a good thing. I do not. Fewer people means fewer ideas. Resource consumption is a problem with our current technological base - but it has ALWAYS been a problem, and a solution has always been developed that results in higher overall quality of life.…

> Resource consumption is a problem with our current technological base

Overpopulation destroys quality of life. You can't fix that by throwing more technology at the problem. Technology isn't going to make more nice beachfront property accessible and affordable for middle class family vacations. Technology isn't going to make more high grade wild tuna, or quiet walks in empty woods.

Re: Japan's aging population could actually be good news

#16

Post by Retric » Sat, Jan 11, 2014, 10:14 PM UTC

didgeoridoo wrote: post #7

gtaylor wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If your life raft is sinking, do you try to patch it, or do you throw someone overboard? Your instinctual answer says a lot about the type of person you are. Nobody is being thrown overboard. The article is just pointing out that it may not necessarily be catastrophic if population growth slows or even reverses for a time. We're all just speculating, whether you agree or disagree. In support of the article, slower…

A fertility rate of 1.4 is not a slowing of growth. It means population is shrinking. If you think of individuals as net negative for society, you probably think this is a good thing. I do not. Fewer people means fewer ideas. Resource consumption is a problem with our current technological base - but it has ALWAYS been a problem, and a solution has always been developed that results in higher overall quality of life.…

New ideas are hardly limited to Japan so if there population is +/- 100 million it's not going to make much difference to technology growth. However, for people living in Japan having +/- 100 million people having fewer people may be a net win relative to their current population. Just look at all those family's living in 500sf apartments that still have long commutes. Population density is good up to a point, but Japan is pushing the limit in some of it's more populaed areas. Granted, there is still plenty of open spaces in japan, but most people want to live near jobs and infrastructure.

Re: Japan's aging population could actually be good news

#17

Post by a8da6b0c91d » Sat, Jan 11, 2014, 10:17 PM UTC

w1ntermute wrote: post #4

1. Overcrowding in Japan is largely due to such a large percentage of the population congregating in Tokyo. If the Japanese economy (and thus population) were more decentralized, this wouldn't be such a big problem. 2. A lot of the reasons for the high cost of living has to do with protectionism. For example, the rice farmer lobby benefits from very high tariffs on imported rice. Most of the rice farmers are old men,…

With regard to #2, Japan has a food security problem that will be alleviated by a lower population. Cramming more people in and becoming even more vulnerable to a disruption in shipping is an obviously bad idea.

Re: Japan's aging population could actually be good news

#18

Post by sliverstorm » Sat, Jan 11, 2014, 10:50 PM UTC

didgeoridoo wrote: post #3

> But fewer people in future will mean it has more living space, more arable land per head, and a higher quality of life, says Eberstadt. Its demands on the planet for food and other resources will also lessen. Different day, same Malthusian bullshit. These people can only think of humans as net negative parasites on the planet, rather than individual agents with a positive expected value to society. Density is GOOD…

I follow your argument. I will note though that Japan is already land- and natural resources-bound in ways the United States has never had to struggle with. It's a smallish island nation with lots of mountainous (difficult to farm) terrain. I believe Japan has not been able to feed itself without imports for ages. If there is anywhere downsizing population might make sense, it would be there.

Re: Japan's aging population could actually be good news

#19

Post by guard-of-terra » Sat, Jan 11, 2014, 11:02 PM UTC

sliverstorm wrote: post #18

didgeoridoo wrote: post #3

> But fewer people in future will mean it has more living space, more arable land per head, and a higher quality of life, says Eberstadt. Its demands on the planet for food and other resources will also lessen. Different day, same Malthusian bullshit. These people can only think of humans as net negative parasites on the planet, rather than individual agents with a positive expected value to society. Density is GOOD…

I follow your argument. I will note though that Japan is already land- and natural resources-bound in ways the United States has never had to struggle with. It's a smallish island nation with lots of mountainous (difficult to farm) terrain. I believe Japan has not been able to feed itself without imports for ages. If there is anywhere downsizing population might make sense, it would be there.

Hong Kong and Singapore are much worse when it comes to feeding themself yet they have no problem doing so. In practice, they are the richest.

Russia has infinite resources of growing food which is only constrained by the fact that it's not very profitable. Nobody it the world wants food so badly to pay for in same kind of money they cough up for oil.

Food is not the constraint, neither is living space.

Re: Japan's aging population could actually be good news

#20

Post by guard-of-terra » Sat, Jan 11, 2014, 11:11 PM UTC

I also think of this problem as about an elective one.

Imagine you have half voters over 65.

Why would they care about innovation or ecology or whatever common good? They would only care about getting their cut of social security. This way they can easily throw a society off the cliff if it happens tomorrow. They don't care about tomorrow.

Yeah, and they also like to tell youth how to live their life. Especially in the areas themself can no longer do anything. This can lead to repressive and suffocating societal changes.