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Gold standard was bad, but Bitcoin standard is even worse

blog.millionintegrals.com

11–20 of 58 posts

Re: Gold standard was bad, but Bitcoin standard is even worse

#11
So much pop Keynesianism spreading real misunderstandings. I really wish people who argued against deflation would take the time to understand the underlying theories.

Deflation means, that the most fundamental law of finance is broken. The law, that says: It is much better to be given one dollar today, than to have one dollar next year.

Deflation does not break this law. It is always better to be given one bitcoin now than one bitcoin in the future - if you get it now you have the option of spending it, which has value. (If 1 BTC is worth 4 bags of pot today and 5 next year, 1 BTC in a year is worthless to me if I want to smoke now.)

He then argues that investment vehicles with a positive rate of return reduces consumption. This is true of both BTC and SPY. Unless bitcoin has the highest rate of return of all investment vehicles, the effect on consumption is irrelevant. I.e., if bitcoin has a return rate of 1% and SPY has a return rate of 2%, bitcoin will not affect the savings rate or reduce consumption [1].

If you are worried about people investing in bitcoin, consumption is irrelevant - the worry is that people will shift investments from SPY to BTC.

The fundamental problem with deflationary currencies is nominal rigidity. If you argue against deflation without mentioning this, you don't know what you are talking about.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nominal_rigidity

tl;dr; Go learn Keynesian economics from a textbook that does math and carefully states assumptions. Don't learn it from newspaper columns.

[1] I oversimplify slightly. Since SPY and BTC are likely to be minimally correlated with each other, you can construct portfolios of both securities which will likely have a higher risk-adjusted return SPY alone. So the portfolio rate of return might go up a few bps, and consumption will shift a little bit towards investment. This is a small effect.

Re: Gold standard was bad, but Bitcoin standard is even worse

#12
The part about credit sounds a bit fishy.

Ordinary people deposit money in the bank, and the bank goes then and invest it. If the investment is a success, the bank pockets the profit and repays the deposited money back when asked. If the investment fails, government steps in and repays the deposited money.

How is that system connected with currency, and why should its existence be critical for society?

Re: Gold standard was bad, but Bitcoin standard is even worse

#14
post #5

> In mathematics, when you write a paper, you are always standing firmly on the shoulders of generations of common knowledge that you don't need to prove yourself - you can safely assume your readers agree with you on the matter. In the same way, I will assume that we agree on the following statement: Implementing gold standard in the modern economy will have no beneficial effect for the mankind, but may have very di…

There is far from a consensus on the dire consequences of implementing a gold standard. Just as one example: http://mises.org/daily/5379/

Re: Gold standard was bad, but Bitcoin standard is even worse

#15
post #9
post #4

Ah jebus another blogger who misunderstands bitcoin ecosystem, technology and its users. Who is looking for attention for his blog since its good linkbait. Well he/she got it. Economists (including the armchair variety like this blogger) should be delighted bitcoin exists, it gives them something to compare and measure and write about for their dismal "science" In meantime some of us continue to build for bitcoin and…

it already exists: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflate-a-coin

Link is returning "page does not exist"

Re: Gold standard was bad, but Bitcoin standard is even worse

#17
post #3

tl;dr; gold standard was abandoned a long time ago, we survived, and therefore it was a good choice to do so. Or, in the words of the author: "no plans for its return have emerged across a large number of economical cycles" First of all - it's a weasel-talk. What is that large number of cycles he's talking about? Why is this number sufficient enough to come to the conclusion? Also, the plans to get back to the gold s…

[deleted]

Re: Gold standard was bad, but Bitcoin standard is even worse

#18
Author's reasoning suffers from the problem of trying to apply old models into new environments.

For instance, the mentioning of impossibility of credit, or how that manufacturers won't be able to finance new products with a long-ish development cycle, and how that is only beneficial for the wealthy.

He would be right if we lived in a world where the only possible way to do business is to create the product first and sell it later. I would argue the opposite. Futures markets already exist. I can buy a house when it is still just a blueprint and a folder with nice pictures. In fact, I wish people could do the same with phones, groceries, clothes, electricity...

The more certainty we have about money flowing around, the easier it is to have efficient financial products. The less risk there is. And the less risk there is, the easier it is to provide credit affordable to everyone, including the little guy.

Re: Gold standard was bad, but Bitcoin standard is even worse

#19
I know people in the bitcoin world are sometimes overzealous and can sound like salespeople...

...However, it's articles like this that make me glad that bitcoin doesn't need much PR and will succeed (or fail) on its own merits.

No matter hour much baloney like this gets written, this guy and others like him can't stop people from using bitcoins, thankfully.

The dollar will never work because it's an inflationary currency, and if your money is worth less tomorrow than it was today no one would ever save anything and society would collapse the first time there is a drought or other calamity.

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