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Scoble says Google Glass is doomed

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Re: Scoble says Google Glass is doomed

#11

Post by pault »

tlrobinson wrote: post #5
Crito wrote: post #4

My bet is on Google Glass going the way of the Segway... ...that is to say, ridiculed by the general public, but finding a bit of a niche in certain industries. The police, postal carriers, etc. @cstross did a pretty good job of convincing me that some form of augmented reality would be very useful for the police. There is a real-life push right now to get police wearing cameras too, I think this sort of device could…

I think if someone can succeed at putting similar technology in normal looking glasses it will have a much better chance of success, otherwise I agree.

I'm very excited for the second and third generation oculus rift, or whatever succeeds it. If I can get something with a sunglasses form factor and a front facing camera with "pass through" mode, I'd just wear it all day (while working). For me, the killer app is a virtual desktop where I can arrange a wall of windows around my laptop. I don't own any furniture and tend to bounce around furnished apartments, so being able to have a replacement for multiple 27" monitors that I can fit in my laptop case would be a godsend.

Edit: as long as it has vim bindings. :)

Re: Scoble says Google Glass is doomed

#12

Post by _delirium »

Crito wrote: post #6
tlrobinson wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think if someone can succeed at putting similar technology in normal looking glasses it will have a much better chance of success, otherwise I agree.

That would help, but I am not confident that it could be made as socially acceptable as for example smartphones. People who prioritize utility over fashion are prime candidates though. Even nerds who claim to be all about utility are typically more fashion conscious than they want to admit, but when you are on the job being all about utility stops being a fashion faux pas. Utility belts are perfectly acceptable for p…

> That would help, but I am not confident that it could be made as socially acceptable as for example smartphones.

I wonder if a classic-style cameraless HUD could alleviate some of the social issues while still retaining enough of the functionality. I mean it'd still take a certain kind of person to wear it, but people who wouldn't wear it who are actively angry at / frightened of Google Glass, rather than merely indifferent to it, seem to be so mostly because of the possibility that the person wearing it could be recording them at any time, without outwardly visible signs (while recording someone by holding up your smartphone is typically pretty obvious). The HUD itself doesn't seem to particularly anger people.

On the other hand, if some devices come with cameras and others don't, people with the no-recording versions might still suffer the same stigma, if the average person can't tell at a glance which is which.

Re: Scoble says Google Glass is doomed

#13

Post by berberous »

codva wrote: post #10

He proclaimed it the next big thing just 8 months ago. https://plus.google.com/+Scobleizer/posts/ZLV9GdmkRzS Then, he is wrong often. http://odonnellweb.com/pelican/posts/2013/Apr/google-glass-i...

While I admit his first review was comically hyperbolic, he really hasn't changed his view very much. In both posts, he states that the price point is critical. In this new post, he merely states that it will not hit the right price point in 2014. His last sentence:

"By 2020 I'm quite convinced this will be a big deal and there will be lots of competitors by then. So, if you make it about 2020, then it isn't doomed. If it's about beating the Apple iWatch in 2014? Yes, totally doomed."

Re: Scoble says Google Glass is doomed

#14

Post by meowface »

pault wrote: post #11
tlrobinson wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think if someone can succeed at putting similar technology in normal looking glasses it will have a much better chance of success, otherwise I agree.

I'm very excited for the second and third generation oculus rift, or whatever succeeds it. If I can get something with a sunglasses form factor and a front facing camera with "pass through" mode, I'd just wear it all day (while working). For me, the killer app is a virtual desktop where I can arrange a wall of windows around my laptop. I don't own any furniture and tend to bounce around furnished apartments, so being…

Agreed. I think Oculus Rift will launch a VR revolution. It may be a few more years before it begins to really take off, but it might just turn science fiction into reality.

Re: Scoble says Google Glass is doomed

#15

Post by Segmentation »

1. Has to have a light to indicate recording, or everyone around you will be paranoid. (Most people will still be paranoid, but at least you can say "No red light, it's not recording!").

2. Will probably be very popular as a cyclist camera. Cyclist who just want a decent 720p camera to record cycling activity (evidence against dangerous drivers), but don't want to attach a dorky camera to their head (i.e. GoPro), will like the Google Glass -- assuming it can fix onto cycling glasses. Also, having GPS/Strava/heart-rate/cadence all on your Google Glass will be awesome for cyclist. (and runners)

Re: Scoble says Google Glass is doomed

#16

Post by MBCook »

_delirium wrote: post #12
Crito wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That would help, but I am not confident that it could be made as socially acceptable as for example smartphones. People who prioritize utility over fashion are prime candidates though. Even nerds who claim to be all about utility are typically more fashion conscious than they want to admit, but when you are on the job being all about utility stops being a fashion faux pas. Utility belts are perfectly acceptable for p…

> That would help, but I am not confident that it could be made as socially acceptable as for example smartphones. I wonder if a classic-style cameraless HUD could alleviate some of the social issues while still retaining enough of the functionality. I mean it'd still take a certain kind of person to wear it, but people who wouldn't wear it who are actively angry at / frightened of Google Glass, rather than merely in…

Removing the camera (+mic) would certainly fix the creepiness for me. Even then, it's still a bit of a problem. The person I'm talking to could just be looking at their Google Glass. It provides a new way to be obnoxious and self-centered, which sadly many people will take.

Truthfully, my willpower isn't that great. I might be one of them if I had Google Glass.

Re: Scoble says Google Glass is doomed

#17

Post by dinkumthinkum »

mark_l_watson wrote: post #2

I find it amusing that he uses G+ to write about it. I agree that cost is important. $500 is probably way too high, considering what $500 buys in fun gadgets. They should also have a visible light to indicate when the camera is active.

A visible light doesn't solve anything though ... I mean ok, no I will install an app to turn it off, no way to know.

Re: Scoble says Google Glass is doomed

#18

Post by _delirium »

MBCook wrote: post #16
_delirium wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That would help, but I am not confident that it could be made as socially acceptable as for example smartphones. I wonder if a classic-style cameraless HUD could alleviate some of the social issues while still retaining enough of the functionality. I mean it'd still take a certain kind of person to wear it, but people who wouldn't wear it who are actively angry at / frightened of Google Glass, rather than merely in…

Removing the camera (+mic) would certainly fix the creepiness for me. Even then, it's still a bit of a problem. The person I'm talking to could just be looking at their Google Glass. It provides a new way to be obnoxious and self-centered, which sadly many people will take. Truthfully, my willpower isn't that great. I might be one of them if I had Google Glass.

It was definitely a somewhat weird experience the first time I talked to someone who was wearing something vaguely like this. I had a grad-school interview with Thad Starner (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thad_Starner) in 2004. He had a DIY eyepiece he wore everywhere, with a chording keyboard slung on one side near his waist. The whole interview was filled with these weird moments of, "so is he making eye contact, or looking at something in his eyepiece?"

It was sort of an uncanny-valley thing where we were having a face-to-face conversation, but I was not quite sure which of the normal face-to-face cues applied. I don't at all mind different kinds of conversations, but to me an IM or IRC chat feel much more comfortable, because you just switch to a completely different interaction mode. Not necessarily less nuanced if it's people who are "fluent" at chat, but different, so it doesn't feel uncanny in the same way. Might be something I'd get used to with more experience, though.

Re: Scoble says Google Glass is doomed

#19

Post by dredmorbius »

mark_l_watson wrote: post #2

I find it amusing that he uses G+ to write about it. I agree that cost is important. $500 is probably way too high, considering what $500 buys in fun gadgets. They should also have a visible light to indicate when the camera is active.

I find it amusing that he uses G+ to write about it.

Why? Scoble's been very active on G+ since it was made public. Too active, if you've got him in your Circles. I eventually shunted him to a "Voluble" circle I'd check periodically, relying more on his better posts to appear when forwarded to my Stream. When he's good, he's really, really good, but typically also critical, mostly he's just average but with the hyperbole and volume: overwhelming.

Scoble's also been one of the more astute critics of a number of Google's offerings. Google has the virtue of operating at Google Scale. Scoble does social networking at Scoble Scale. Issues which might not faze most users (or which might get brushed off when the technorati gripe about the, yr. humble author raises his hand) tend to get noticed by Scoble. He's griped about noise and distraction on G+ since the beginning. Various notifications, calendar / events, and moderation issues have been championed by him.

I've left G+ (for numerous reasons, mostly concerning privacy: http://redd.it/1u356d), but Scoble's been a reasonable exemplar of the platform and both its strengths and weaknesses.

Edit: More goodness sensing makes words.

Re: Scoble says Google Glass is doomed

#20

Post by Havoc »

Something about the authors writing style just rubs me the wrong way. Kinda like an advert that was carefully crafted by a team with the sole purpose of triggering a specific emotion.

That being said, I did actually learn something from that wall of text: The fact that Glass needs to be specifically fitted to the wearer is definitely problematic. I'm curious how G will work around that from a logistical PoV.

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