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Chance of nuclear war is greater than you think

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Re: Chance of nuclear war is greater than you think

#11

Post by V-2 »

"he began punching numbers to calculate the probability of such a catastrophe (...)

Hellman estimated these numbers:

Rate of initiating events: six percent per year

Probability that an initiating event leads to a major crisis: 33 percent

Probability that a major crisis leads to the use of a nuclear weapon: 10 to 50 percent

The third probability is hardest to estimate because we have yet to drop a bomb on Russia (or vice versa)."

Very impressive calculations

Obligatory xkcd: http://xkcd.com/384/

Re: Chance of nuclear war is greater than you think

#12

Post by yodsanklai »

dm2 wrote: post #7

Well, at least the US government also believes this and has most of it's bases covered to prevent this kind of event from occurring. (NSA) The US govt. does have a cyber intelligence agency which is capable of infiltrating hostile nations computer systems and figuring out where exactly missiles are being kept. (NRO) Also the ability to spy from some very advanced and very expensive satellites. (CIA) Ground assets to…

"(NSA) The US govt. does have a cyber intelligence agency which is capable of infiltrating hostile nations computer systems and figuring out where exactly missiles are being kept."

I wonder to which extent this is true.

Re: Chance of nuclear war is greater than you think

#13

Post by iand »

brc wrote: post #4

It might be hard for younger people to understand - but when films like The Terminator [1984] were made, this kind of thing had battered the news for decades, probably since the cuban missile crisis. The movies talked about a near future that many fully expected to happen. The endless hysteria and doom-mongering were enough to make many weary of the always-about-to-happen nuclear war, or devastating consequences of j…

I grew up in the seventies and my greatest fear was nuclear attack. That might be because I'm British and we're only 4 minutes from the USSR.

I didn't feel weary of the doom mongering and I'm not at all cynical about the current risks. I believe they are very small but non zero for certain areas of Asia.

Re: Chance of nuclear war is greater than you think

#14

Post by leandrod »

brc wrote: post #4

It might be hard for younger people to understand - but when films like The Terminator [1984] were made, this kind of thing had battered the news for decades, probably since the cuban missile crisis. The movies talked about a near future that many fully expected to happen. The endless hysteria and doom-mongering were enough to make many weary of the always-about-to-happen nuclear war, or devastating consequences of j…

Why say ‘probably since the Cuban missile crisis’, when it is common knowledge, easily accessible, that the nuclear scare is even older, since Stalin had the Soviet bomb test and mounted on viable vectors in the early to mid fifties?

Re: Chance of nuclear war is greater than you think

#15

Post by leandrod »

dm2 wrote: post #7

Well, at least the US government also believes this and has most of it's bases covered to prevent this kind of event from occurring. (NSA) The US govt. does have a cyber intelligence agency which is capable of infiltrating hostile nations computer systems and figuring out where exactly missiles are being kept. (NRO) Also the ability to spy from some very advanced and very expensive satellites. (CIA) Ground assets to…

Yes, if a plane explodes with a nuclear bomb, the centre of the explosion would be quite distinctive. We might not be able to tell for sure which plane it was, but we would know which planes were in the airport, perhaps which were around the centre, and thus which was likely to carry the bomb.

Re: Chance of nuclear war is greater than you think

#16

Post by leandrod »

dm2 wrote: post #7

Well, at least the US government also believes this and has most of it's bases covered to prevent this kind of event from occurring. (NSA) The US govt. does have a cyber intelligence agency which is capable of infiltrating hostile nations computer systems and figuring out where exactly missiles are being kept. (NRO) Also the ability to spy from some very advanced and very expensive satellites. (CIA) Ground assets to…

Neither North Korea (nor Cuba, nor Muslim Arab countries) are under any risk. South Korea (and the US, and Israel) are only convenient strawmen to prop tyrannies.

Re: Chance of nuclear war is greater than you think

#17

Post by dm2 »

yodsanklai wrote: post #12
dm2 wrote: post #7

Well, at least the US government also believes this and has most of it's bases covered to prevent this kind of event from occurring. (NSA) The US govt. does have a cyber intelligence agency which is capable of infiltrating hostile nations computer systems and figuring out where exactly missiles are being kept. (NRO) Also the ability to spy from some very advanced and very expensive satellites. (CIA) Ground assets to…

"(NSA) The US govt. does have a cyber intelligence agency which is capable of infiltrating hostile nations computer systems and figuring out where exactly missiles are being kept." I wonder to which extent this is true.

If it's technically possible at all then it's 100% true.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/06/10/inside_the_...

"According to former NSA officials interviewed for this article, TAO's mission is simple. It collects intelligence information on foreign targets by surreptitiously hacking into their computers and telecommunications systems, cracking passwords, compromising the computer security systems protecting the targeted computer, stealing the data stored on computer hard drives, and then copying all the messages and data traffic passing within the targeted email and text-messaging systems. The technical term of art used by NSA to describe these operations is computer network exploitation (CNE). TAO is also responsible for developing the information that would allow the United States to destroy or damage foreign computer and telecommunications systems with a cyberattack if so directed by the president. The organization responsible for conducting such a cyberattack is U.S. Cyber Command (Cybercom), whose headquarters is located at Fort Meade and whose chief is the director of the NSA, Gen. Keith Alexander."

You've seen Stuxnet and Flame which proves that they have zero-days and the code to access even networks not connected to the internet.

At least 3 submarines (including the USS Jimmy Carter) have the capability to tap into communications cables in the ocean which we've been doing it for at least 40 years.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Underwater_Reconnaissa...

http://www2.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/nukevault/ebb305/index.htm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Azorian

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Ivy_Bells

Also more relating to the original article:

http://www.nti.org/

http://www.wilsoncenter.org/program/NPIHP

http://www2.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/nukevault/index.htm

Re: Chance of nuclear war is greater than you think

#18

Post by dblarons »

fit2rule wrote: post #5
dblarons wrote: post #3

I fail to understand why North Korea is seen as a serious threat. The country can't fire a missile much further than Japan, failed miserably when attempting to launch a microwave-oven satellite, and has no technical abilities that are not given to them by China. According to South Korean friends, North Korea is seen as a joke even by its closest neighbor who it has vowed to destroy. Contrast this with Iran, who clear…

Like Israel actually, North Korea runs one of the most competent smuggling groups in the world. They smuggle drugs into Australia and Japan regularly, and possess all the resources needed to infiltrate borders of most of their neighbours with ease. In spite of what we think about what a 'traditional nuclear strike' would/should look like, the fact is that a two-man team carrying a portable nuclear device is quite a v…

Wow, that's an option I hadn't even considered due to North Korea's closely watched borders. I guess it's hard to imagine a terrorist style nuclear strike from NK.

Re: Chance of nuclear war is greater than you think

#19

Post by fit2rule »

dblarons wrote: post #18
fit2rule wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like Israel actually, North Korea runs one of the most competent smuggling groups in the world. They smuggle drugs into Australia and Japan regularly, and possess all the resources needed to infiltrate borders of most of their neighbours with ease. In spite of what we think about what a 'traditional nuclear strike' would/should look like, the fact is that a two-man team carrying a portable nuclear device is quite a v…

Wow, that's an option I hadn't even considered due to North Korea's closely watched borders. I guess it's hard to imagine a terrorist style nuclear strike from NK.

You have to understand that there is more to NK than just what we hear on the news. They're at the center of a lot of illegal activity in the Asian/Pacific region, and have a state-sponsored investment in criminal infrastructure (drugs, smuggling, kidnapping) that they use to keep themselves propped up.
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