11–20 of 44 posts
At this point, I think that only catastrophic technological failure can drive it below $100. It's hard for me to think through the socio-economic dynamic that leads there otherwise. I can certainly imagine it going to $300-$500, but there are just so many people that want to buy at that range, I think the walls are too steep to go further.
I wonder if a poll is the best forecasting device; it seems almost axiomatic that a prediction market [1] would be a superior solution. On the other hand; I'm guessing that you might stir a bit of controversy if you were to set up a futures market where you offered people the chance to make an offer of how much they would pay for a bitcoin delivered a year from now; and others to post offers for how much they would n…
At this point, I think that only catastrophic technological failure can drive it below $100. It's hard for me to think through the socio-economic dynamic that leads there otherwise. I can certainly imagine it going to $300-$500, but there are just so many people that want to buy at that range, I think the walls are too steep to go further.
I personally know 5 people who are telling me they will buy the second it hits $300-$500ish.
At this point, I think that only catastrophic technological failure can drive it below $100. It's hard for me to think through the socio-economic dynamic that leads there otherwise. I can certainly imagine it going to $300-$500, but there are just so many people that want to buy at that range, I think the walls are too steep to go further.
I'd say we're still far from saturation, probably 1/5 of market cap for medium term (long term depends on more widespread adoption). And the practical utility which would determine it's target market is debatable -- will bitcoin settle for being a kinda-useful method of transferring money among nations using exchanges/locals as intermediaries (which already has a lot of competition), laundering money and buying illegal things or will it become a widely adopted worldwide currency?
6 months, not sure. Probably less than 100. Bitcoin is certainly interesting, but there's absolutely nothing backing it. Doesn't seem much different to me than pokemon/baseball cards/pet rocks. Once the novelty wears off, or one of the big players cashes out, we'll see it crash.
You can't make as many Bitcoins as you can pokemon/baseball cards/pet rocks. That's one thing backing it. There will only ever be 21 million bitcoins in existence. Ever.
6 months, not sure. Probably less than 100. Bitcoin is certainly interesting, but there's absolutely nothing backing it. Doesn't seem much different to me than pokemon/baseball cards/pet rocks. Once the novelty wears off, or one of the big players cashes out, we'll see it crash.
You really see no difference between bitcoin and baseball cards? The lack of vision embodied by such statements is quite tiresome.
I wonder if a poll is the best forecasting device; it seems almost axiomatic that a prediction market [1] would be a superior solution. On the other hand; I'm guessing that you might stir a bit of controversy if you were to set up a futures market where you offered people the chance to make an offer of how much they would pay for a bitcoin delivered a year from now; and others to post offers for how much they would n…
I'm not recommending it, just pointing out that it exists, and that is exactly the sort of thing people are making predictions on. I looks a little expensive to participate (fees seem high for what the site does, to me).
6 months, not sure. Probably less than 100. Bitcoin is certainly interesting, but there's absolutely nothing backing it. Doesn't seem much different to me than pokemon/baseball cards/pet rocks. Once the novelty wears off, or one of the big players cashes out, we'll see it crash.
A few months ago, before the current wave of hype started, I got the historical price data on bitcoin and ran Eureqa on it, which is a program that tries to find the simplest possible equation that fits the data. Not for any practical reason, I was just testing the software. I extrapolated the result forward in time a few months ahead to see what it predicted, and it showed it increasing in price exponentially. I was…
> I must have overfit You did overfit.
At this point, I think that only catastrophic technological failure can drive it below $100. It's hard for me to think through the socio-economic dynamic that leads there otherwise. I can certainly imagine it going to $300-$500, but there are just so many people that want to buy at that range, I think the walls are too steep to go further.
In case you haven't noticed, the price is already now at $900.