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The research literature on programming productivity sucks, but not because 10x is a myth. It sucks because we have no reliable way of measuring these things.
If I'm being generous, I'm a slightly above average engineer. Spot me 10X and I'll outperform any engineer on the planet. Do I believe in the 2X engineer? Definitely. 3X? Sure. 5X? Possibly, if their name is Ritchie or Torvalds or the like. But 10X? What I do in a week, they'd only get 4 hours. What I do in a year, they'd get 5 weeks. Doesn't exist.
If I'm being generous, I'm a slightly above average engineer. Spot me 10X and I'll outperform any engineer on the planet. Do I believe in the 2X engineer? Definitely. 3X? Sure. 5X? Possibly, if their name is Ritchie or Torvalds or the like. But 10X? What I do in a week, they'd only get 4 hours. What I do in a year, they'd get 5 weeks. Doesn't exist.
The 10x concept contains not only the work but the decisions. Not just how to build something, but what to build.
For example, people other than Linus Torvalds can code at the level needed to write and maintain git--as evidenced by the fact that other people do that now; he has handed the project off.
But the creation of git included the conception of git--the many decisions about what he would build, and why it should be that way. Those decisions, coupled with solid coding, have resulted in a massive productivity multiplier for many thousands of people.
If I'm being generous, I'm a slightly above average engineer. Spot me 10X and I'll outperform any engineer on the planet. Do I believe in the 2X engineer? Definitely. 3X? Sure. 5X? Possibly, if their name is Ritchie or Torvalds or the like. But 10X? What I do in a week, they'd only get 4 hours. What I do in a year, they'd get 5 weeks. Doesn't exist.
It's possible they can do things you can't do at all or can't do in a reasonable amount of time so 10x is certainly possible simply because they could have far superior knowledge.
What are the units we are talking about here? Is productivity measured in hours and if so hours of what?
What are the units we are talking about here? Is productivity measured in hours and if so hours of what?
If I'm being generous, I'm a slightly above average engineer. Spot me 10X and I'll outperform any engineer on the planet. Do I believe in the 2X engineer? Definitely. 3X? Sure. 5X? Possibly, if their name is Ritchie or Torvalds or the like. But 10X? What I do in a week, they'd only get 4 hours. What I do in a year, they'd get 5 weeks. Doesn't exist.
The 10x "mythology" doesn't mean 10x productive as an above-average engineer. It means 10x productive as the least-productive. So think of somebody who would consider you a 3x. Now the engineer who is 3x relative to you is just about 10x to them. Now consider the developers with net-zero or net-negative productivity. The 10x rule wildly understates how much more valuable a good engineer is relative to them.