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Warren Buffett compares US Fed to a hedge fund

economictimes.indiatimes.com

11–20 of 48 posts

Re: Warren Buffett compares US Fed to a hedge fund

#11
post #8
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Fed has no choice but to hold them to term. The Fed's whole game is to continue keeping rates at zero by buying everything under the sun to the tune of $85 billion! per month. Selling, or even slowing the rate of purchasing, would do the opposite and raise rates.

They have choices. They have complete flexibility. They are under no pressure to do anything that isn't explicitly their goals. They want to control inflation and increase employment. If the economy starts to heat up and inflation starts to rise above their 2% target they will then have the option of selling bonds or raising the federal funds rate, the latter of which is more likely. I'm not really sure what you're t…

They are under extreme pressure to continue purchasing treasury bills from the government and mortgage backed securities and derivatives from banks. Even hinting that they'll start tapering these purchases has caused the equity markets to drop and rates to rise. Actually tapering will in short order throw the country into a recession. I'd be hard pressed to call that "complete flexibility."

Re: Warren Buffett compares US Fed to a hedge fund

#12
Buffet is just a shill for the USG in the confidence game of US treasuries. Sure the fed is under no pressure to sell, the pressure is really on the fed to not stop buying.

QE infinity is all about hiding the fact foreigners are exiting treasuries so the fed is the last resort buyer of USG debt. Without the fed backstopping, interest rates paid by the USG on its debt would have to go up which would very quickly crash the system.

Warren is just doing his patriotic duty to kick the can a little further down the road.

Re: Warren Buffett compares US Fed to a hedge fund

#13
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Fed bought toxic assets at way below par value. These bonds are giving off interest, but their underlying value is going up as well. They also bought equity in companies like GM and AIG (iirc) for fractions of what they are worth today. I think Buffet used the term "hedge fund" for dramatic effect rather than strict accuracy (since most of the public sees hedge funds as the epitomy of the investing money making d…

"their underlying value is going up as well" How can you tell? These are illiquid bonds that have no market. The Fed could say they're worth anything and there's no way to prove or disprove it. The only way to know is to offer them for sale and obviously that's the opposite to what the Fed is doing.

In the case where those toxic assets are mortgage-backed securities, the underlying is a house -- so we can tell by observing the housing market.

Re: Warren Buffett compares US Fed to a hedge fund

#14
post #7

"'The Fed is the greatest hedge fund in history, ... it's generating $80 billion or $90 billion a year probably' in revenue" Can you get more asinine than that? Probably? How is this relevant when the Fed is printing $85 BILLION a month to finance ongoing bond purchases? Guys like Buffet must absolutely love the Fed because they have an outlet to offload their illiquid garbage bonds and derivatives. Imagine if you ma…

Buffett has made a killing owning businesses that print money, invest on float, and whose risk is backstopped by the federal government. Businesses like insurance, finance, and so forth. The Fed is his bread and butter. It's his risk absorber.

It makes total sense for him to keep playing this game, because he benefits so fantastically from it. Everyone else should take what he says for what it is. The agenda is pretty loud and clear.

Re: Warren Buffett compares US Fed to a hedge fund

#16
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Fed can hold them to term. They are under no pressure to sell.

Holding them to term is actually a bit of a joke if you think about it. The Fed is buying bonds. The government is selling them. As long as the Fed keeps buying them, the government can keep selling them. If the Fed holds them to maturity, where will the money come from to pay back the mature bonds? From the government selling even more new bonds which the Fed will have to buy. It's not a Ponzi scheme or a pyramid sc…

The fed is buying bonds on the secondary market i.e not directly bidding and taking down auctions at treasury. This may sound minute but is a huge point. See http://pragcap.com/understanding-quantitative-easing

Re: Warren Buffett compares US Fed to a hedge fund

#18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Holding them to term is actually a bit of a joke if you think about it. The Fed is buying bonds. The government is selling them. As long as the Fed keeps buying them, the government can keep selling them. If the Fed holds them to maturity, where will the money come from to pay back the mature bonds? From the government selling even more new bonds which the Fed will have to buy. It's not a Ponzi scheme or a pyramid sc…

The fed is buying bonds on the secondary market i.e not directly bidding and taking down auctions at treasury. This may sound minute but is a huge point. See http://pragcap.com/understanding-quantitative-easing

How is there any sort of difference? The effect of reducing the supply of treasury bonds in the market and increasing the supply of money in the economy is the same, regardless of whether the bond is removed from the open market at auction or from the secondary market.

Re: Warren Buffett compares US Fed to a hedge fund

#19
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fed is buying bonds on the secondary market i.e not directly bidding and taking down auctions at treasury. This may sound minute but is a huge point. See http://pragcap.com/understanding-quantitative-easing

How is there any sort of difference? The effect of reducing the supply of treasury bonds in the market and increasing the supply of money in the economy is the same, regardless of whether the bond is removed from the open market at auction or from the secondary market.

Reducing the supply of UST !=Increasing the money supply. All QE is doing is increasing bank reserves. Unless bank lend the reserves out money supply is not affected. With IOERR and general aggregate demand being jacked, banks are not really lending money out to actually increase the money supply. If just taking UST's out would have increased money supply we would have seen a lot more inflation!

*edit: IOER = Interest on excess reserves. See http://synthenomics.blogspot.com/2012/08/interest-on-excess-... for a good explanation

Re: Warren Buffett compares US Fed to a hedge fund

#20

So 80Bil on 1 Trillion, ie 8% yearly return. Thats a shitty hedge fund

8% yearly is very good, especially for such a large portfolio with limited volatility. They have made quite a few good trades.

I would not want to defend all of the fed's actions, though.

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