The burglars went to the internet.
Low exposure to police and easier ways to attract victims.
(scams, rip off schemes, ponzi)
Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?
11–20 of 190 posts
Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?
#12This article mentions, but undersells, the lead factor. Lead exposure causes cognitive problems in children, especially related to impulse control. The drop in crime correlates very well with lead cleanup. Kevin Drum (a left-leaning US journalist) has been making this argument: http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2013/01/lead-and-crime...
But lead by itself can't be the major factor behind the crime drop. Countries such as Brazil have banned leaded gas even before the United States, and crime rates are still rising dramatically.
It seems clear that other factors play a more important role. Things like police effectiveness, or economics.
Edit: reference for lead ban dates: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tetraethyllead
Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?
#13I think the reasons for this are: (1) People buy fewer used items in physical stores, i.e. fewer people buy stuff at pawn shops etc and a typical thief will never go through the effort of building up a decent eBay seller reputation. This makes it harder to monetize stolen property. (2) It's a self-perpetuating statistic, in that less crime means more resources/attention is given to the remaining crime (by the police…
And, expanding on this, people carry less cash both on their person and in their homes.
Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?
#14I live in "Lost Angeles" and former police chief Bill Bratton took credit for any statistic he could. It's my belief that the reason for crime reduction here in L.A. is that the standard of living has gone up via social services and drugs as a income vehicle are more ubiquitous. (See the first 60-seconds of the intro to the film "Layer Cake" where the bank robbers realize they "are in the wrong game..." http://youtu.be/QHKI8zMHCjE )
Then there is credit card fraud too which is non-violent. In other words info and contraband crimes.
Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?
#15There is a simple reason: computers and the internet. It makes people more docile and satisfies their urges. Porn for sexual urges, social media for "socializing", google and wikipedia for knowledge etc. That last part also makes everyone more educated. Which also correlates to less (blue collar) crime.
Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?
#16This article mentions, but undersells, the lead factor. Lead exposure causes cognitive problems in children, especially related to impulse control. The drop in crime correlates very well with lead cleanup. Kevin Drum (a left-leaning US journalist) has been making this argument: http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2013/01/lead-and-crime...
But lead by itself can't be the major factor behind the crime drop. Countries such as Brazil have banned leaded gas even before the United States, and crime rates are still rising dramatically. It seems clear that other factors play a more important role. Things like police effectiveness, or economics. Edit: reference for lead ban dates: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tetraethyllead Crime: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki…
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Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?
#17Crime has gone white collar. The march of progress goes on.
Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?
#18This article mentions, but undersells, the lead factor. Lead exposure causes cognitive problems in children, especially related to impulse control. The drop in crime correlates very well with lead cleanup. Kevin Drum (a left-leaning US journalist) has been making this argument: http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2013/01/lead-and-crime...
But lead by itself can't be the major factor behind the crime drop. Countries such as Brazil have banned leaded gas even before the United States, and crime rates are still rising dramatically. It seems clear that other factors play a more important role. Things like police effectiveness, or economics. Edit: reference for lead ban dates: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tetraethyllead Crime: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki…
When was it effectively phased out in Brazil, though? Leaded gasoline was mostly gone in the US by the 1970s and there was a 20 year lag before the crime rate started dropping. The wikipedia article says lead was banned in the US in 1995, but it was definitely not widely available.
However, if lead was widely used in Brazil right up until the ban date there (1989) then it would stand to reason that the crime rate wouldn't start dropping for another six or seven years.
Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?
#19My first thought is pure economics. 1990 or so forward saw a massive increase in the standard of living globally on average. US GDP almost doubled over that decade, and I suspect the same is true for most of the industrialized world. So why isn't crime rising now, with big financial and unemployment problems? The countries with those problems are still consuming their past wealth to pay for current entitlements, which is keeping the social contract alive temporarily. And if that theory is correct, the next 10 to 15 years will see a meaningful increase in crime.
Another thought - just a half-silly toss out, but perhaps the Web played a role. It changed a lot of social behaviors, and that would have began in the early to mid 1990s in the industrialized world. It altered how and where people spend their time; how they do their shopping; how they communicate; how often they leave their homes; knowledge available when it comes to almost everything, such as instantly being able to look-up good / bad neighborhoods based on crime.
I first got online around 1994/95, at 14 years of age, and it's almost hard to remember time before the Web. I have to consciously remind myself that it wasn't always there.
Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?
#20If you haven't read it, Steven Pinker's The Better Angels of Our Nature is a tour-de-force on the factors that have reduced violence of all kinds.