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Give them an inch and they take $773 million

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11–20 of 112 posts

Re: Give them an inch and they take $773 million

#11
post #2

>implying the flights stayed 80% full after new seats were added >implying decreased customer satisfaction didn't hurt their revenue >implying their systems didn't need to scale because of increased customers >implying their R&D on smaller legroom didn't cost anything >implying upgrading planes didn't cost anything >implying more customers on planes didn't have an impact on maintenance costs >implying revenue means a…

[deleted]

Re: Give them an inch and they take $773 million

#12

Not quite. The extra seats only provide additional revenue when the flights would have otherwise been full. From the article, the average flight is only 80% full, which means those six extra seats aren't providing any additional revenue. To determine the actual revenue increase from those six extra seats, we would have to know how frequently flights have less than 6 empty seats.

While these numbers will never be perfect, per se, RITA[1] shows that in 2011, Southwest's loadfactor was 80.8% while in 2012, loadfactor was 80.4%. So, the flights remained around 80% full on average.

I took this into account in my calculation and assumed roughly 4.8 more seats were filled on average per flight, not a full 6.

[1] http://www.transtats.bts.gov/carriers.asp?pn=1

Re: Give them an inch and they take $773 million

#14
post #2

>implying the flights stayed 80% full after new seats were added >implying decreased customer satisfaction didn't hurt their revenue >implying their systems didn't need to scale because of increased customers >implying their R&D on smaller legroom didn't cost anything >implying upgrading planes didn't cost anything >implying more customers on planes didn't have an impact on maintenance costs >implying revenue means a…

Ah, faulty assumptions (and in this case a mathematical equation leaving out a critical piece) leading to surprising numbers.

Why stop at 1" and not take all 31? Unlimited money.

Re: Give them an inch and they take $773 million

#15

If flights are at 80% capacity adding 6 extra seats just means an extra 6 empty seats on every flight. The $733 million number is meaningless - what is actually needed is to know how many post-reconfiguration flights had 5 or fewer free seats, since that is the only situation in which the extra capacity is being used.

Yep, at 80% full and the median Beoing 737 model capacity being 130 passengers, $733 mill is useless.

Re: Give them an inch and they take $773 million

#16

If flights are at 80% capacity adding 6 extra seats just means an extra 6 empty seats on every flight. The $733 million number is meaningless - what is actually needed is to know how many post-reconfiguration flights had 5 or fewer free seats, since that is the only situation in which the extra capacity is being used.

Not to mention the additional weight of the seats and how much fuel it takes to drag them around.

Re: Give them an inch and they take $773 million

#17
My girlfriends father is a pilot for southwest. For my birthday we flew home with my pregnant sister, we of course flew standby. On the way back, my sister and I were separated in Phoenix, where she ended up getting stuck for the night because every flight after 11am was booked. What I'm saying is that although they were able to add more seats, they still can't give everyone a seat, and to southwest that's money lost, and to me, that's one frightened sister.

Although I enjoy my legroom, it was hell trying to get my sister home.

Re: Give them an inch and they take $773 million

#18

Not quite. The extra seats only provide additional revenue when the flights would have otherwise been full. From the article, the average flight is only 80% full, which means those six extra seats aren't providing any additional revenue. To determine the actual revenue increase from those six extra seats, we would have to know how frequently flights have less than 6 empty seats.

You also need to calculate the extra fuel costs for the additional weight of the empty seats. If most of the time those seats are empty, they need to be utilized enough to justify their extra expense.

Re: Give them an inch and they take $773 million

#19
post #11
post #2

>implying the flights stayed 80% full after new seats were added >implying decreased customer satisfaction didn't hurt their revenue >implying their systems didn't need to scale because of increased customers >implying their R&D on smaller legroom didn't cost anything >implying upgrading planes didn't cost anything >implying more customers on planes didn't have an impact on maintenance costs >implying revenue means a…

[deleted]

Fuel costs are essentially linear with regards to weight, and accordingly dominated by putting several hundred tons of metal in the air. After you've made that decision, adding a marginal passenger is much, much, MUCH cheaper than the price of a ticket. The margins approach that of the last customer added to a SaaS company. (!)

Airlines occasionally obscure this with regards to their public pricing rationales for extra luggage, but that is almost solely an ops/revenue-maximization problem for the airline rather than being sincerely a proportional response to the additional marginal cost of putting another bag in the air.

Re: Give them an inch and they take $773 million

#20

If flights are at 80% capacity adding 6 extra seats just means an extra 6 empty seats on every flight. The $733 million number is meaningless - what is actually needed is to know how many post-reconfiguration flights had 5 or fewer free seats, since that is the only situation in which the extra capacity is being used.

>5 or fewer free seats, since that is the only situation in which the extra capacity is being used.

You're not taking into account overbooking and cancellations--having n+6 seats to sell makes it easier to get n butts in seats.

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