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What if our tech is good enough?

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Re: What if our tech is good enough?

#11

Post by 10ren »

The death of the PC was claimed in a video presentation from 2000 or 2001. I can't find it online - anyone know the one I mean?

I found the argument fascinating: he claimed that the dramatic growth of the computing industry was fueled by more people having access to computers. Beginning with mainframes, through to minicomputers, workstations and PCs, each wave was cheaper and was affordable to a much larger number of people. This increasingly larger audience is what fueled the growth. But such growth can't continue forever; eventually everyone has one. At that point, they still buy upgrades and replacements, but the dramatic rate of sales must drop back.

I think that's where the first world is today, and developing nations aren't that far behind. Of course, we'll still have new devices (iPhones, kindles, and others-yet-to-be-invented), but the computing industry as such won't grow at the unsustainably dramatic rates of previous decades.

Re: What if our tech is good enough?

#12

Post by [deleted] »

ryanwaggoner wrote: post #2

Yet now we find ourselves in an impossible position. In almost every sphere, the technology we have is so good that any improvements can only be incremental. I don't believe this for a second. I'm sure people said the same thing about smartphones before the iPhone. Yes, some categories of technology are mature, but innovation is also about the creation of entirely new categories that we can't currently foresee.

[deleted]

Re: What if our tech is good enough?

#13

Post by swombat »

Confusion wrote: post #9
manvsmachine wrote: post #4

The premise of this article indicated a massive lack of research or forethought. The author is absolutely confusing "what exists" with "what is readily made commercially available to the public". A few hours of browsing tech blogs would make it very clear how many significant advances are made. He talks about Blu-Ray like it's cutting edge. Meanwhile we have companies putting out 3D TV sets this year . Digital camera…

However, you are confusing 'what will become available' with 'what consumers will buy when it becomes available'. The author doesn't say nothing 'better' will become available. He is claiming that consumers may not buy it, because the advantage of the new product over the old one is minimal. He is, in effect, claiming that many more current R&D efforts will, in the near future, turn out to be bad investments. When pu…

It may well happen that some day, technological development stalls and no one needs anything anymore from technology.

However, that day will be the day when no one on Earth has any problems anymore, because technology is used to solve problems. That may happen if we destroy ourselves, or if we reach a peak of technological achievement such that we are effectively gods.

I hope the former won't happen in my lifetime, and I suspect we'll have to wait a while for the latter.

Re: What if our tech is good enough?

#14

Post by manvsmachine »

Confusion wrote: post #9
manvsmachine wrote: post #4

The premise of this article indicated a massive lack of research or forethought. The author is absolutely confusing "what exists" with "what is readily made commercially available to the public". A few hours of browsing tech blogs would make it very clear how many significant advances are made. He talks about Blu-Ray like it's cutting edge. Meanwhile we have companies putting out 3D TV sets this year . Digital camera…

However, you are confusing 'what will become available' with 'what consumers will buy when it becomes available'. The author doesn't say nothing 'better' will become available. He is claiming that consumers may not buy it, because the advantage of the new product over the old one is minimal. He is, in effect, claiming that many more current R&D efforts will, in the near future, turn out to be bad investments. When pu…

Point taken; however, if that is the argument that he is trying to make, it is not made very clearly and the title is misleading. There is a subtle but very distinct difference between "What is out is not significantly better" and "What is out is significantly better but not cheap/prevalent/simple enough for me to buy it". Because, yes, what exists now is more than good enough for people who don't particularly like or use tech. Yes, some people still use Win95, but to say that Win 7 is the same thing with "a few shiny baubles" is laughable.

As far as long-term effects are concerned, there may be a time when we decide that there's not much left to do, but I'm willing to bet that it's not anytime even remotely soon. A lot of people have been impressed or overwhelmed by the things we achieved during the 90's and 00's; their kids won't be. Looking at some of the areas from http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=569103, you can see how far we have yet to go.

Re: What if our tech is good enough?

#15

Post by ygcfububyuf »

pkulak wrote: post #5

Moving from video to DVD-quality camcorders was another giant leap, but the difference between 720p HD and 1080p HD is only apparent if your TV is the size of a bus. That's a bit misleading. There was never any transition from 720p to 1080p.

I think his point is that DVD upscaled to 720p is as good as 1080p blu-ray for most poeple's TVs.

Re: What if our tech is good enough?

#16

Post by electromagnetic »

donaq wrote: post #3
ryanwaggoner wrote: post #2

Yet now we find ourselves in an impossible position. In almost every sphere, the technology we have is so good that any improvements can only be incremental. I don't believe this for a second. I'm sure people said the same thing about smartphones before the iPhone. Yes, some categories of technology are mature, but innovation is also about the creation of entirely new categories that we can't currently foresee.

I agree. I can recall a time when I thought I would never need a hard disk bigger than 20GB and went "meh" when 40GB hard disks came out. upgrading from an iPod that stores your entire music collection to one that can store your collection twice is nowhere near as exciting. It is, because my collection is now twice as large.

I got one of the 40GB and did the exact same when the 80GB came out.

I personally don't store that much music, but I love video. So it now completely sucks that I can't store much video on it, certainly not enough for me not to spend an hour every week changing up the videos.

I guess it says something when my 500GB external hard drive isn't big enough anymore. My next computer purchase is going to be a 4 bay NAS, then I can upgrade it 1TB at a time.

Re: What if our tech is good enough?

#17

Post by banned_man »

This has more to do with misinvestment of resources than any fundamental ceiling to demand for better technology. Scaling up existing capabilities to be slightly better reaches a limit at some point; increasing capabilities does not.

Consider games for an example of poorly invested resources. The graphics have improved dramatically in video games between the era of Chrono Trigger ('95) and now. The quality of the games has declined. These two trends are linked together. Now that the budget for a game is in the 7- and 8-digit range, business people have creative control over games, and games are more likely to be designed by committee. Thus, they end up sucking. Improving the graphics will not solve this problem, but there's still demand for high-quality games that is not being met through traditional channels.

Re: What if our tech is good enough?

#18

Post by EvilTrout »

banned_man wrote: post #17

This has more to do with misinvestment of resources than any fundamental ceiling to demand for better technology. Scaling up existing capabilities to be slightly better reaches a limit at some point; increasing capabilities does not. Consider games for an example of poorly invested resources. The graphics have improved dramatically in video games between the era of Chrono Trigger ('95) and now. The quality of the gam…

I think people tend to look at the SNES days with rose coloured glasses. There were plenty of crap games available then, too.

Remember when every game was trying to push an adorable cartoon mascot? Do you think the business people weren't behind that too?

While good graphics are certainly no substitute for good gameplay, there are certainly far more AAA titles available now than there ever has been.

Some come from large studios: Left for Dead, Bioshock, Fallout. Others are coming from the emerging indie scene like World of Goo and Braid.

Re: What if our tech is good enough?

#19

Post by [deleted] »

manvsmachine wrote: post #14
Confusion wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

However, you are confusing 'what will become available' with 'what consumers will buy when it becomes available'. The author doesn't say nothing 'better' will become available. He is claiming that consumers may not buy it, because the advantage of the new product over the old one is minimal. He is, in effect, claiming that many more current R&D efforts will, in the near future, turn out to be bad investments. When pu…

Point taken; however, if that is the argument that he is trying to make, it is not made very clearly and the title is misleading. There is a subtle but very distinct difference between "What is out is not significantly better" and "What is out is significantly better but not cheap/prevalent/simple enough for me to buy it". Because, yes, what exists now is more than good enough for people who don't particularly like o…

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